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I admire Musk and tesla. However, I see two paths for them and none are good. A - fully-electric cars are still too early and will get crushed by hybrids or mo

I admire Musk and tesla. However, I see two paths for them and none are good. A - fully-electric cars are still too early and will get crushed by hybrids or more efficient diesel/fossil fuel cars. Tesla becomes irrelevent. B - fully-electric is all the rage, and every brand will have one. Tesla will become the victims of their own success. I'm going to assume many of you are going to disagree with me. Mainly because we come from a world with a much different customer acquisition models. For most people, if they had a choice they would buy a trusted car brand. Would you buy an Honda/Acura, Toyota/Lexus, Mercedes, etc with dealership in every corner or an unknown car called tesla? Also, unlike niche companies like Ferrari/Lamborghini that have brand and performance appeal, tesla doesn't provide anything unique. For the same price point, there are far better cars, than the original lotus-based Tesla. To that point, what's their beachhead?

wmf 14y ago
Every brand may have electric cars using licensed Tesla technology.
- cryptoz 14y ago
  Isn't that already the case? http://gigaom.com/cleantech/tesla-to-supply-powertrains-for-daimler-smart-evs-surprise/ http://gigaom.com/cleantech/tesla-to-supply-powertrains-for-...
  - salimmadjd 14y ago
    Actually, their deal with Toyota is a better example and ultimately might be the future of tesla
marshallp 14y ago
Tesla are the Apple of cars. Elon Musk is the new Steve Jobs. The other car companies will have non-tech retards as ceo's and will always be playing catch-up. Tesla only has to fear techie's like google or apple itself entering the space.
- salimmadjd 14y ago
  Althiugh agree with the visionary status of Musk. But, your comment speaks to my point directly regarding the differing customer acquisition models. Apple's growth comes from entering an emerging market. Very different than the car industry. The emerging market of the car industry started with another visionary, Henry Ford.
  - wmf 14y ago
    Ah yes. "If smartphones turn out to be the future, people will probably just buy them from existing phone brands that they trust, like Nokia or Motorola." — a lot of people in 2007
    - qu4z-2 14y ago
      For what it's worth, I have a Motorola smartphone, and I certainly wouldn't trade it in for an iPhone. The point I'm trying to make is that that the prediction is correct assuming "people" refers mostly to the people making the predictions. Or... people tend to project their ways of thinking, and likes and dislikes, onto other people.
    - salimmadjd 14y ago
      Again what I said about different customer acquisition models. 1 - Smart phones have 2-4 years life at about $200 or so price point. They are not $60,000 cars that force buyers to buy a $600/year service contract from Tesla. 2 - Apple had the entire MP3 market with their ipods not to mention an army of long-time fanboys. Translate to a strong consumer brand loyalty. Tesla doesn't have any of these.
  - marshallp 14y ago
    Apple didn't actually create completely new products, just polished versions, same as Tesla. The same with market share, they only want a small segment (the only exception to this rule are ipads).
- cryptoz 14y ago
  I don't think Google will enter the space of actually building cars - but they most definitely will partner closely with some of these companies for their self-driving cars.
nandemo 14y ago
Given that Tesla is a startup, it's a fair bet to say that "huge success" or "bust" are the most likely outcomes. But regarding point B: many makers already have an electric model: Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Ford. I think Tesla is a cool company, but they didn't invent the concept of the electric car and they don't have a monopoly over it. I think it's likely that electric cars will gain a bigger share of the market relatively soon (in auto industry terms), even if Tesla doesn't succeed.
ChuckMcM 14y ago
What are your thoughts on: C - full-electric is the rage, every brand has one and Tesla remains the 'premium' brand ? My thinking is that the new vehicle market is quite large, and Tesla, as an early mover, has a great advantage relative to the other manufacturers. Their disadvantage is that they aren't as well capitalized. Their lack of working capital will kill them if they have to pivot very far from their current path, but otherwise it won't be an issue as long as they can scale production with demand. Currently, you can't buy anything like a Model S from any of the other brands. Further if they start today it will be 24 months before they can launch something. So Tesla has a couple of years of runway, nearly all to themselves, in this space. (Note if you don't think they bring anything unique, I suggest you get a test drive of a model S and then go to Nissan and drive a Leaf) Tesla sells a 'no compromises' electric car, no compromise on range, no compromise on performance, no compromise on comfort, no compromise on quality. And significantly cheaper to fuel up. So that will sell them a lot of cars to people who are attracted to that stance, and those people's followers will get cars because they are followers. Now it is an open question as to how many total cars that first batch is. Is it 100k, 250k? 1M? That depends on a lot of things. But if electric cars do take off as mainstream, I expect Tesla will be the 'best' one for a while yet.
- salimmadjd 14y ago
  I think that's what Tesla is hoping for. However, I don't see it happening. Tesla wisely is going after premium buyers, that market is niche by definition. They've done that because car is a major purchase unless if you a lot of money and you are more willing to take a chance on a new car company. But beyond that, it doesn't matter if Tesla is building a better car, it matters if consumers think Tesla is building a better car. And tesla doesn't have the same brand loyalty in a very competitive market. Secondly, if you're buying an electric car for environmental or gas price reasons, there are other options. I can lease a Nissan Leaf now for $199/month. The amount of money I save on daily gas cost driving my Honda will almost come to $199! It means I can have a car for 3 years for free (minus the $2000 singing fee). Tesla just can't compete with that!
  - ChuckMcM 14y ago
CamperBob2 14y ago
I'm going to assume many of you are going to disagree with me. Mainly because we come from a world with a much different customer acquisition models. I don't disagree with path A, but the fact is, path B (and Musk's prediction that half of all cars sold will be full electric by 2032) can't possibly happen with our current power distribution system in place. The only conceivable way that electric cars are going to take over will be if the government steps in and mandates universal form factors for swappable batteries that can be charged at advantageous times and locations and made available to drivers when and where they're needed. Any other approach to electric cars is simply stupid, and I can't begin to imagine why someone like Musk doesn't grasp that. I speak as someone in the market for a new moderately-high-end car who would love to support Tesla... if only the whole idea wasn't so hopelessly wrong from an engineering standpoint.
- 001sky 14y ago
  swappable batteries -- What is the weight, though? @450 pounds?[1] ___________ [1] edit: source of estimate - Honda s2000 with A123 li-ion was discussed in thread below, estimated battery pack weight was approx 460-500lbs. Car had more hp, though. http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4536452 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4536452
  - CamperBob2 14y ago
    Batteries are heavy no matter how you slice 'em. They will always (AFAIK) offer terrible joule/kg performance compared to a tank of gasoline. I don't think replaceable modular batteries would be that much heavier than whatever's being done now. But yes, there would be some additional overhead, given that even the smallest cars would probably take more than one battery module.
    - 001sky 14y ago
      The UPS and the Airplane luggage guys though will only 30 kilos (65lbs), though because of insurance/workplace comp. They wont let them lug more. at 200 kilos (440lba) you are talking splitting the pack up into 6 or 7 parts (and still be laboriously removed) or having a somewhat major operation on your car (ie, you need an Engine Hoist for the thing in one part) to change the battery. Then a forklift or something to put them on a "rack". Seems logistically like a nightmare. That being said, the actual cells themselves are only a couple of pounds each. Would be interesting if this could be engineered to just take out something like the 100 micro-cells (at 4 lbs each), and toss em in a shopping cart. Maybe have a robot then sort and charge them in a special room full of charging racks. (like automated library book retrieval). But they would need to be built up in a certain way, and put in a housing, etc to go back in the car OK.

wmf 14y ago

Every brand may have electric cars using licensed Tesla technology.

cryptoz 14y ago
Isn't that already the case? http://gigaom.com/cleantech/tesla-to-supply-powertrains-for-daimler-smart-evs-surprise/ http://gigaom.com/cleantech/tesla-to-supply-powertrains-for-...
- salimmadjd 14y ago
  Actually, their deal with Toyota is a better example and ultimately might be the future of tesla

marshallp 14y ago

Tesla are the Apple of cars. Elon Musk is the new Steve Jobs. The other car companies will have non-tech retards as ceo's and will always be playing catch-up. Tesla only has to fear techie's like google or apple itself entering the space.

salimmadjd 14y ago
Althiugh agree with the visionary status of Musk. But, your comment speaks to my point directly regarding the differing customer acquisition models. Apple's growth comes from entering an emerging market. Very different than the car industry. The emerging market of the car industry started with another visionary, Henry Ford.
- wmf 14y ago
  Ah yes. "If smartphones turn out to be the future, people will probably just buy them from existing phone brands that they trust, like Nokia or Motorola." — a lot of people in 2007
  - qu4z-2 14y ago
    For what it's worth, I have a Motorola smartphone, and I certainly wouldn't trade it in for an iPhone. The point I'm trying to make is that that the prediction is correct assuming "people" refers mostly to the people making the predictions. Or... people tend to project their ways of thinking, and likes and dislikes, onto other people.
  - salimmadjd 14y ago
    Again what I said about different customer acquisition models. 1 - Smart phones have 2-4 years life at about $200 or so price point. They are not $60,000 cars that force buyers to buy a $600/year service contract from Tesla. 2 - Apple had the entire MP3 market with their ipods not to mention an army of long-time fanboys. Translate to a strong consumer brand loyalty. Tesla doesn't have any of these.
- marshallp 14y ago
  Apple didn't actually create completely new products, just polished versions, same as Tesla. The same with market share, they only want a small segment (the only exception to this rule are ipads).
cryptoz 14y ago
I don't think Google will enter the space of actually building cars - but they most definitely will partner closely with some of these companies for their self-driving cars.

nandemo 14y ago

Given that Tesla is a startup, it's a fair bet to say that "huge success" or "bust" are the most likely outcomes. But regarding point B: many makers already have an electric model: Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Ford. I think Tesla is a cool company, but they didn't invent the concept of the electric car and they don't have a monopoly over it. I think it's likely that electric cars will gain a bigger share of the market relatively soon (in auto industry terms), even if Tesla doesn't succeed.

ChuckMcM 14y ago

What are your thoughts on: C - full-electric is the rage, every brand has one and Tesla remains the 'premium' brand ? My thinking is that the new vehicle market is quite large, and Tesla, as an early mover, has a great advantage relative to the other manufacturers. Their disadvantage is that they aren't as well capitalized. Their lack of working capital will kill them if they have to pivot very far from their current path, but otherwise it won't be an issue as long as they can scale production with demand. Currently, you can't buy anything like a Model S from any of the other brands. Further if they start today it will be 24 months before they can launch something. So Tesla has a couple of years of runway, nearly all to themselves, in this space. (Note if you don't think they bring anything unique, I suggest you get a test drive of a model S and then go to Nissan and drive a Leaf) Tesla sells a 'no compromises' electric car, no compromise on range, no compromise on performance, no compromise on comfort, no compromise on quality. And significantly cheaper to fuel up. So that will sell them a lot of cars to people who are attracted to that stance, and those people's followers will get cars because they are followers. Now it is an open question as to how many total cars that first batch is. Is it 100k, 250k? 1M? That depends on a lot of things. But if electric cars do take off as mainstream, I expect Tesla will be the 'best' one for a while yet.

salimmadjd 14y ago
I think that's what Tesla is hoping for. However, I don't see it happening. Tesla wisely is going after premium buyers, that market is niche by definition. They've done that because car is a major purchase unless if you a lot of money and you are more willing to take a chance on a new car company. But beyond that, it doesn't matter if Tesla is building a better car, it matters if consumers think Tesla is building a better car. And tesla doesn't have the same brand loyalty in a very competitive market. Secondly, if you're buying an electric car for environmental or gas price reasons, there are other options. I can lease a Nissan Leaf now for $199/month. The amount of money I save on daily gas cost driving my Honda will almost come to $199! It means I can have a car for 3 years for free (minus the $2000 singing fee). Tesla just can't compete with that!
- ChuckMcM 14y ago

CamperBob2 14y ago

I'm going to assume many of you are going to disagree with me. Mainly because we come from a world with a much different customer acquisition models. I don't disagree with path A, but the fact is, path B (and Musk's prediction that half of all cars sold will be full electric by 2032) can't possibly happen with our current power distribution system in place. The only conceivable way that electric cars are going to take over will be if the government steps in and mandates universal form factors for swappable batteries that can be charged at advantageous times and locations and made available to drivers when and where they're needed. Any other approach to electric cars is simply stupid, and I can't begin to imagine why someone like Musk doesn't grasp that. I speak as someone in the market for a new moderately-high-end car who would love to support Tesla... if only the whole idea wasn't so hopelessly wrong from an engineering standpoint.

001sky 14y ago
swappable batteries -- What is the weight, though? @450 pounds?[1] ___________ [1] edit: source of estimate - Honda s2000 with A123 li-ion was discussed in thread below, estimated battery pack weight was approx 460-500lbs. Car had more hp, though. http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4536452 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4536452
- CamperBob2 14y ago
  Batteries are heavy no matter how you slice 'em. They will always (AFAIK) offer terrible joule/kg performance compared to a tank of gasoline. I don't think replaceable modular batteries would be that much heavier than whatever's being done now. But yes, there would be some additional overhead, given that even the smallest cars would probably take more than one battery module.
  - 001sky 14y ago
    The UPS and the Airplane luggage guys though will only 30 kilos (65lbs), though because of insurance/workplace comp. They wont let them lug more. at 200 kilos (440lba) you are talking splitting the pack up into 6 or 7 parts (and still be laboriously removed) or having a somewhat major operation on your car (ie, you need an Engine Hoist for the thing in one part) to change the battery. Then a forklift or something to put them on a "rack". Seems logistically like a nightmare. That being said, the actual cells themselves are only a couple of pounds each. Would be interesting if this could be engineered to just take out something like the 100 micro-cells (at 4 lbs each), and toss em in a shopping cart. Maybe have a robot then sort and charge them in a special room full of charging racks. (like automated library book retrieval). But they would need to be built up in a certain way, and put in a housing, etc to go back in the car OK.