There are many open questions here, but for example I'm not putting a lot of faith for WP in places like India or China, as the license costs and hardware requi

There are many open questions here, but for example I'm not putting a lot of faith for WP in places like India or China, as the license costs and hardware requirements make it targeted for the high end of smartphones (for now). Also, the situation with young Android or iOS is not exactly comparable to the one now, as then the markets were still dominated by featurephones, and so there were lots of "new" customers to convert. Now for example in USA the market is 50% smartphone, and people already have invested into one of the ecosystems. Getting those users to switch is a lot harder.