3 ms·
I would describe the danger to MS/Windows a little differently. Windows was fairly protected by being a big natural monopoly. Making a good OS is itself a diff
by netcan 14y ago
I would describe the danger to MS/Windows a little differently.
Windows was fairly protected by being a big natural monopoly. Making a good OS is itself a difficult task. Making a good OS & getting an application market to grow around it in a deal-breaker rich environment is nearly impossible. There were no ways to climb the hill other than straight up the steep face.
Smartphones/tablets are an angle of attack. An easier way to climb the hill. Android & iOS matured without having to compete with windows. Now two of MS's most dangerous competitors can both launch new smartphone derived PC (keyboard & mouse) operating systems with 80% of the work (in both OS building & in app ecosystem building) already done.
Even worse, there may be room for new mobile OS' to get going. The market isn't tending to the same kind of monopoly as PCs.
I predict that iOS, Android and/or yet-to-succeed OSs are going to hop from tablets & phones to TVs and other devices. Its only a matter of time before we see one gaining traction on laptops. Apple could probably release a $500 post-PC PC within a year that will double (in units) Apple sales out of the gate. Google could too (though it probably wouldn't hit the ground running as fast).
Eventually, this market will fold in on itself and we will have several OS families. I would be surprised if any one (including windows) gets as firm a grip on any market as microsoft did.
This doesn't mean that MS dies. They are (despite the criticisms) a very competent company. It just means they compete with 2-5 different companies for market share in a bigger market. consumers win.