37 ms·

He’s going to walk.

JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
> He’s going to walk If you actually believe this you can more than 10x your money [1]. [1] https://polymarket.com/event/luigi-mangione-out-of-custody-before-2027 https://polymarket.com/event/luigi-mangione-out-of-custody-b...
- toomuchtodo 10mo ago
  Prediction markets are notoriously unreliable from a resolution perspective.
almosthere 10mo ago
I actually think it's so bad in our country right now that if someone showed up at the court and snuck a gun in and shot Luigi in the back and killed him ... THAT guy would definitely get the death penalty. (he should, but so should Luigi) It's all political at this point.
- dagmx 10mo ago
  Why should either of them get the death penalty?
  - JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
    > Why should either of them get the death penalty? Pardons. If he's pardoned there is a good chance he'll kill again. (And inspire copycats.) We need to eliminate pardons across our system of justice. Between Biden pardoning his son and Trump pardoning the J6'ers, there should be a bipartisan case for closing this.
    - dagmx 10mo ago
      Why would he need to be pardoned to inspire copycats? Why wouldn’t his death cause him to become a martyr and inspire others? Why would he be pardoned by the governor at all? Why do you believe Hunter Biden being pardoned is on the same level as J6 being pardoned, when the reasoning (accurately) was to protect him from a perversion of the law in turn? Your entire argument is essentially “kill them before they can prove they’re not still a threat”.
      - ben_w 10mo ago
        > Why do you believe Hunter Biden being pardoned is on the same level as J6 being pardoned, when the reasoning (accurately) was to protect him from a perversion of the law in turn? Not to speak for JumpCrisscross, but IMO this could be construed not as "Hunter Biden being pardoned is on the same level as J6 being pardoned" but rather "Republicans will support the end of presidential pardoning because of Hunter Biden being pardoned, while Democrats will support the end of presidential pardoning because of J6 being pardoned".
    - DANmode 10mo ago
      or…if we’re at the point we need to neuter the power of the elected office, just randomly appoint people, and stop pretending what we’re doing is working.
      - JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
        > if we’re at the point we need to neuter the power of the elected office Eliminating pardon power doesn’t neuter the Presidency or Governorships. The Romans didn’t even automatically grant the power to dictators.
        DANmode 10mo ago
        “begin neutering”, then. Not arguing for the pardon power - just demanding better leadership.
- JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
  > THAT guy would definitely get the death penalty If they did it in a federal court? Probably. If they did it in the state court? Probably not. New York doesn’t have the death penalty.
brandonmenc 10mo ago
Keep dreaming. I'm not sure why so many people believe that what - jury nullification? - is going to happen.
- toomuchtodo 10mo ago
  $1.4M defense fund (so far), exceptional legal team, jury nullification, lots of paths to success. His case is going well so far, and appeals are always an option. “Proof beyond a reasonable doubt” is the bar. How confident are you there isn’t at least one juror who hasn’t been harmed by their health insurance, financially or medically? Only takes one.
  - JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
    > How confident are you there isn’t at least one juror who hasn’t been harmed by their health insurance, financially or medically? Who doesn't perjor themselves during voir dire, thereby triggering a mistrial? Pretty confident. Maybe he gets lucky in federal court because Bondi is an idiot. But the state charges are solid, and New York isn't Reddit.
    - toomuchtodo 10mo ago
      I’ll bet you a bottle of a beverage you enjoy. Let me know. Laws are just loose rules we sometimes collectively adhere to, people are mostly emotion driven. Sometimes the law matters, but sometimes not.
      - JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
        > I’ll bet you a bottle of a beverage you enjoy. Let me know I’ll take it! If he’s found not guilty on all counts in his state and federal trials, I owe you. > people are mostly emotion driven Sure. A prosecutor’s (and judge’s) job is to remove these people from a jury pool.
- JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
  > not sure why so many people believe that what - jury nullification? - is going to happen Eh, if I thought Mangione was justified or effective it would be an easy way to feel good for a while with zero real-world consequences apart from my moral integrity. (Which, to be clear, is mine and mine alone. I have friends–good people whom I love and respect–who would nullify Mangione. They're just never getting seated on his jury without perjuring themselves.)
burnt-resistor 10mo ago
Only if he has $2M and mentions how much he loves red hats.
- toomuchtodo 10mo ago
  Do you think it's unlikely he couldn't raise $2M for a pardon bribe? We are in unconventional times after all.

He’s going to walk.

> He’s going to walk If you actually believe this you can more than 10x your money [1]. [1] https://polymarket.com/event/luigi-mangione-out-of-custody-before-2027 https://polymarket.com/event/luigi-mangione-out-of-custody-b...

toomuchtodo 10mo ago
Prediction markets are notoriously unreliable from a resolution perspective.

almosthere 10mo ago

I actually think it's so bad in our country right now that if someone showed up at the court and snuck a gun in and shot Luigi in the back and killed him ... THAT guy would definitely get the death penalty. (he should, but so should Luigi) It's all political at this point.

dagmx 10mo ago
Why should either of them get the death penalty?
- JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
  > Why should either of them get the death penalty? Pardons. If he's pardoned there is a good chance he'll kill again. (And inspire copycats.) We need to eliminate pardons across our system of justice. Between Biden pardoning his son and Trump pardoning the J6'ers, there should be a bipartisan case for closing this.
  - dagmx 10mo ago
    Why would he need to be pardoned to inspire copycats? Why wouldn’t his death cause him to become a martyr and inspire others? Why would he be pardoned by the governor at all? Why do you believe Hunter Biden being pardoned is on the same level as J6 being pardoned, when the reasoning (accurately) was to protect him from a perversion of the law in turn? Your entire argument is essentially “kill them before they can prove they’re not still a threat”.
    - ben_w 10mo ago
      > Why do you believe Hunter Biden being pardoned is on the same level as J6 being pardoned, when the reasoning (accurately) was to protect him from a perversion of the law in turn? Not to speak for JumpCrisscross, but IMO this could be construed not as "Hunter Biden being pardoned is on the same level as J6 being pardoned" but rather "Republicans will support the end of presidential pardoning because of Hunter Biden being pardoned, while Democrats will support the end of presidential pardoning because of J6 being pardoned".
  - DANmode 10mo ago
    or…if we’re at the point we need to neuter the power of the elected office, just randomly appoint people, and stop pretending what we’re doing is working.
    - JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
      > if we’re at the point we need to neuter the power of the elected office Eliminating pardon power doesn’t neuter the Presidency or Governorships. The Romans didn’t even automatically grant the power to dictators.
      - DANmode 10mo ago
        “begin neutering”, then. Not arguing for the pardon power - just demanding better leadership.
JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
> THAT guy would definitely get the death penalty If they did it in a federal court? Probably. If they did it in the state court? Probably not. New York doesn’t have the death penalty.

brandonmenc 10mo ago

Keep dreaming. I'm not sure why so many people believe that what - jury nullification? - is going to happen.

toomuchtodo 10mo ago
$1.4M defense fund (so far), exceptional legal team, jury nullification, lots of paths to success. His case is going well so far, and appeals are always an option. “Proof beyond a reasonable doubt” is the bar. How confident are you there isn’t at least one juror who hasn’t been harmed by their health insurance, financially or medically? Only takes one.
- JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
  > How confident are you there isn’t at least one juror who hasn’t been harmed by their health insurance, financially or medically? Who doesn't perjor themselves during voir dire, thereby triggering a mistrial? Pretty confident. Maybe he gets lucky in federal court because Bondi is an idiot. But the state charges are solid, and New York isn't Reddit.
  - toomuchtodo 10mo ago
    I’ll bet you a bottle of a beverage you enjoy. Let me know. Laws are just loose rules we sometimes collectively adhere to, people are mostly emotion driven. Sometimes the law matters, but sometimes not.
    - JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
      > I’ll bet you a bottle of a beverage you enjoy. Let me know I’ll take it! If he’s found not guilty on all counts in his state and federal trials, I owe you. > people are mostly emotion driven Sure. A prosecutor’s (and judge’s) job is to remove these people from a jury pool.
JumpCrisscross 10mo ago
> not sure why so many people believe that what - jury nullification? - is going to happen Eh, if I thought Mangione was justified or effective it would be an easy way to feel good for a while with zero real-world consequences apart from my moral integrity. (Which, to be clear, is mine and mine alone. I have friends–good people whom I love and respect–who would nullify Mangione. They're just never getting seated on his jury without perjuring themselves.)

burnt-resistor 10mo ago

Only if he has $2M and mentions how much he loves red hats.

toomuchtodo 10mo ago
Do you think it's unlikely he couldn't raise $2M for a pardon bribe? We are in unconventional times after all.