4 ms·
More data would certainly be better, but it's not as bad as you suggest -- the large number of miles driven till first incident does tell us something statistic
by akoboldfrying 9mo ago
More data would certainly be better, but it's not as bad as you suggest -- the large number of miles driven till first incident does tell us something statistically meaningful about the incident rate per mile driven. If we view the data as a large sample of miles driven, each with some observed number of incidents, then what we have is "merely" an extremely skewed distribution. I can confidently say that, if you pick any sane family of distributions to model this, then after fitting just this "single" data point, the model will report that P(MTTF < one hundredth of the observed number of miles driven so far) is negligible. This would hold even if there were zero incidents so far.
- smarnach 9mo agoWe get a statistically meaningful result about an upper bound of the incident rate. We get no statistically meaningful lower bound.