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As someone who's worked with population data, I found that there is an enormous rift between reported opinion (and HN and reddit opinion) vs revealed (through e

As someone who's worked with population data, I found that there is an enormous rift between reported opinion (and HN and reddit opinion) vs revealed (through experimentation) population preferences.

toss1 8mo ago
Sounds both true and interesting. Any particularly wild and/or illuminating examples of which you can share more detail?
- hnuser123456 8mo ago
  The "my boyfriend is AI" subreddit. A lot of people are lonely and talking to these things like a significant other. They value roleplay instruction following that creates "immersion." They tell it to be dark and mysterious and call itself a pet name. GPT-4o was apparently their favorite because it was very "steerable." Then it broke the news that people were doing this, some of them falling off the deep end with it, so they had to tone back the steerability a bit with 5, and these users seem to say 5 breaks immersion with more safeguards.
  - Sabinus 8mo ago
    If you ask the users of that sub why their boyfriend is AI they will tell you their partner or men in general aren't providing them with enough emotional support/stimulation. I do wonder if they would accept the mirror explanation for men enjoying porn.
- jaggederest 8mo ago
  My favorite somewhat off topic example of this is some qualitative research I was building the software for a long time ago. The difference between the responses and the pictures was illuminating, especially in one study in particular - you'd ask people "how do you store your lunch meat" and they say "in the fridge, in the crisper drawer, in a ziploc bag", and when you asked them to take a picture of it, it was just ripped open and tossed in anywhere. This apparently horrified the lunch meat people ("But it'll get all crusty and dried out!", to paraphrase), which that study and ones like it are the reason lunch meat comes with disposable containers now, or is resealable, instead of just in a tear-to-open packet. Every time I go grocery shopping it's an interesting experience knowing that specific thing is in a small way a result of some of the work I did a long time ago.
- anal_reactor 8mo ago
  Classic example: people say they'd rather pay $12 upfront and then no extra fees but they actually prefer $10 base price + $2 fees. If it didn't work then this pricing model wouldn't be so widespread.
  - 112233 8mo ago
    wow, framing. "people say they prefer quitting smoking, but actually they prefer to relapse when emotionally manipulated." The most commonly taken action does not imply people wanted to do it more, or felt happiest doing it. Unless you optimize profit only.
cm2012 8mo ago
This is why I work in direct performance advertising. Our work reveals the truth!
- make3 8mo ago
  Your work exploits people's addictive propensity and behaviours, and gives corporations incentives and tools to build on that. Insane spin you're putting on it. At best, you're a cog in one of the worst recent evolutions of capitalism.
  - marrone12 8mo ago
    Advertising is not a recent evolution of capitalism, it's a foundational piece of it. Whatever you do as a job would not exist if there was no one marketing it. This hostility seems insane.
    - 12345ieee 8mo ago
      The early theorists of capitalism didn't imagine that advanced psychology (that didn't even exist back then) would be used to convince people to buy $product. Messages of that sophistication are always dangerous, and modern advertising is the most widespread example of it. The hostility is more than justified, I can only hope the whole industry is regulated downwards, even if whatever company I work for sells less.
      - eru 8mo ago
        > Messages of that sophistication [...] By demonising them, you are making ads sounds way more glamorous than they are.
    - losteric 8mo ago
      Advertising always seems like a prisoner’s dilemma. If no one advertised, people would still buy things.
      - 8mo ago
make3 8mo ago
Exactly, that sounds to me like a TikTok vs NPR/books thing, people tell everyone what they read, then go spend 11h watching TikToks until 2am.
Macha 8mo ago
I always thought that the idea that "revealed preferences" are preferences, discounts that people often make decisions they would rather not. It's like the whole idea that if you're on a diet, it's easier to not have junk food in the house to begin with than to have junk food and not eat more than your target amount. Are you saying these people want to put on weight? Or is it just they've been put in a situation that defeats their impulse control? I feel a lot of the "revealed preference" stuff in advertising is similar in advertisers finding that if they get past the easier barriers that users put in place, then really it's easier to sell them stuff that at a higher level the users do not want.
- cal_dent 8mo ago
  Perfectly put. Revealed preference simply assumes impulses are all correct, which is not the case, an exploits that. Drugs make you feel great, in moderation perfectly acceptable, constantly not so much.
- simonjgreen 8mo ago
  Absolutely. Nicotine addiction can meet the criteria for a revealed preference, certainly an observed choice
  - sandspar 8mo ago
    One example I like to use is schadenfreude. The emotion makes us feel good and bad at the same time: it's pleasurable but in an icky way. So should social media algorithms serve schadenfreude? Should algorithms maximize for pleasure (show it) or for some kind of "higher self" (don't show it). If they maximize for "higher self" then which designer gets to choose what that means?
tunesmith 8mo ago
Well that's what akrasia is. It's not necessarily a contradiction that needs to be reconciled. It's fine to accept that people might want to behave differently than how they are behaving. A lot of our industry is still based on the assumption that we should deliver to people what they demonstrate they want, rather than what they say they want.
ComputerGuru 8mo ago
Not true. People can rationally know what they want but still be tempted by the poorer alternative. If you ask me if I want to eat healthy and clean and I respond on the affirmative, it’s not a “gotcha” if you bait me with a greasy cheeseburger and then say “you failed the A/B test, demonstrating we know what you actually want more than you.”

As someone who's worked with population data, I found that there is an enormous rift between reported opinion (and HN and reddit opinion) vs revealed (through experimentation) population preferences.

toss1 8mo ago

Sounds both true and interesting. Any particularly wild and/or illuminating examples of which you can share more detail?

hnuser123456 8mo ago
The "my boyfriend is AI" subreddit. A lot of people are lonely and talking to these things like a significant other. They value roleplay instruction following that creates "immersion." They tell it to be dark and mysterious and call itself a pet name. GPT-4o was apparently their favorite because it was very "steerable." Then it broke the news that people were doing this, some of them falling off the deep end with it, so they had to tone back the steerability a bit with 5, and these users seem to say 5 breaks immersion with more safeguards.
- Sabinus 8mo ago
  If you ask the users of that sub why their boyfriend is AI they will tell you their partner or men in general aren't providing them with enough emotional support/stimulation. I do wonder if they would accept the mirror explanation for men enjoying porn.
jaggederest 8mo ago
My favorite somewhat off topic example of this is some qualitative research I was building the software for a long time ago. The difference between the responses and the pictures was illuminating, especially in one study in particular - you'd ask people "how do you store your lunch meat" and they say "in the fridge, in the crisper drawer, in a ziploc bag", and when you asked them to take a picture of it, it was just ripped open and tossed in anywhere. This apparently horrified the lunch meat people ("But it'll get all crusty and dried out!", to paraphrase), which that study and ones like it are the reason lunch meat comes with disposable containers now, or is resealable, instead of just in a tear-to-open packet. Every time I go grocery shopping it's an interesting experience knowing that specific thing is in a small way a result of some of the work I did a long time ago.
anal_reactor 8mo ago
Classic example: people say they'd rather pay $12 upfront and then no extra fees but they actually prefer $10 base price + $2 fees. If it didn't work then this pricing model wouldn't be so widespread.
- 112233 8mo ago
  wow, framing. "people say they prefer quitting smoking, but actually they prefer to relapse when emotionally manipulated." The most commonly taken action does not imply people wanted to do it more, or felt happiest doing it. Unless you optimize profit only.

cm2012 8mo ago

This is why I work in direct performance advertising. Our work reveals the truth!

make3 8mo ago
Your work exploits people's addictive propensity and behaviours, and gives corporations incentives and tools to build on that. Insane spin you're putting on it. At best, you're a cog in one of the worst recent evolutions of capitalism.
- marrone12 8mo ago
  Advertising is not a recent evolution of capitalism, it's a foundational piece of it. Whatever you do as a job would not exist if there was no one marketing it. This hostility seems insane.
  - 12345ieee 8mo ago
    The early theorists of capitalism didn't imagine that advanced psychology (that didn't even exist back then) would be used to convince people to buy $product. Messages of that sophistication are always dangerous, and modern advertising is the most widespread example of it. The hostility is more than justified, I can only hope the whole industry is regulated downwards, even if whatever company I work for sells less.
    - eru 8mo ago
      > Messages of that sophistication [...] By demonising them, you are making ads sounds way more glamorous than they are.
  - losteric 8mo ago
    Advertising always seems like a prisoner’s dilemma. If no one advertised, people would still buy things.
    - 8mo ago

make3 8mo ago

Exactly, that sounds to me like a TikTok vs NPR/books thing, people tell everyone what they read, then go spend 11h watching TikToks until 2am.

Macha 8mo ago

I always thought that the idea that "revealed preferences" are preferences, discounts that people often make decisions they would rather not. It's like the whole idea that if you're on a diet, it's easier to not have junk food in the house to begin with than to have junk food and not eat more than your target amount. Are you saying these people want to put on weight? Or is it just they've been put in a situation that defeats their impulse control? I feel a lot of the "revealed preference" stuff in advertising is similar in advertisers finding that if they get past the easier barriers that users put in place, then really it's easier to sell them stuff that at a higher level the users do not want.

cal_dent 8mo ago
Perfectly put. Revealed preference simply assumes impulses are all correct, which is not the case, an exploits that. Drugs make you feel great, in moderation perfectly acceptable, constantly not so much.
simonjgreen 8mo ago
Absolutely. Nicotine addiction can meet the criteria for a revealed preference, certainly an observed choice
- sandspar 8mo ago
  One example I like to use is schadenfreude. The emotion makes us feel good and bad at the same time: it's pleasurable but in an icky way. So should social media algorithms serve schadenfreude? Should algorithms maximize for pleasure (show it) or for some kind of "higher self" (don't show it). If they maximize for "higher self" then which designer gets to choose what that means?

tunesmith 8mo ago

Well that's what akrasia is. It's not necessarily a contradiction that needs to be reconciled. It's fine to accept that people might want to behave differently than how they are behaving. A lot of our industry is still based on the assumption that we should deliver to people what they demonstrate they want, rather than what they say they want.

ComputerGuru 8mo ago

Not true. People can rationally know what they want but still be tempted by the poorer alternative. If you ask me if I want to eat healthy and clean and I respond on the affirmative, it’s not a “gotcha” if you bait me with a greasy cheeseburger and then say “you failed the A/B test, demonstrating we know what you actually want more than you.”