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Elon's superpower is commanding insane valuation premiums. The trouble with this is that "the bill eventually comes due", so to speak, which forces Elon's compa
by elbasti 10mo ago
Elon's superpower is commanding insane valuation premiums. The trouble with this is that "the bill eventually comes due", so to speak, which forces Elon's companies to take wilder and wilder bets, or to make wilder and wilder promises.
With telsa it was robotaxis, and when that failed to materialize, humanoid robots (fucking LOL).
SpaceX is an even more insane example. They are eyeing an IPO at a 1.5 trillion valuation. And yet the market for satellite launches is simply not that big. (What would you do with a satellite, if I gifted you one for free?). Estimates have SpaceX doing about $3B in annual earnings, which would give them a 500x earnings multiple at a 1.5T valuation (Apple: 35).
And so SpaceX/Elon had to invent the absolutely idiotic idea of "data centers in space" to sell some future vision of tens of thousands of launches per year.
He keeps upping the ante (and the ridiculousness of the vision), and so far investors keep funding it.
Me? I've realized that this madness is entirely "opt-in" and I choose to simply...not opt-in.
- code_for_monkey 10mo agothe humanoid robots thing is so ridiculous, theres no way that comes to fruition
- rkagerer 10mo agoWhat would you do with a satellite, if I gifted you one for free? Let's forget orbital mechanics for a while to make this answer more fun. It would follow me around and provide a dedicated, private lifeline of communication anywhere I go, real-time aerial surveillance of my surroundings, and eventually lasers to zap anyone who pisses me off.
- loosescrews 10mo agoYes, and the reality is that any of those would require a fairly large constellation of satellites. I guess the play is that many large constellations of satellites will be launched.
- asadotzler 10mo agoNot really. That's only the case for LEO sats. Going up higher gets you hemispheric coverage with a single bird.
- XorNot 10mo agoYou wouldn't like the latency on the internet connection. And this isn't even theoretical: it's why LEO constellations were a big deal.
- deleted 10mo ago[deleted]
- NetMageSCW 10mo ago> Estimates have SpaceX doing about $3B in annual earnings Ummm that information seems terribly out of date or is just uninformed- Starlink alone is estimated around $8 billion for 2024 and projected around $12 billion for 2025, with continued growth.
- el_nahual 10mo agoThat's revenue. Earnings (profit) is what's relevant, because as you can imagine putting stuff in space is pretty expensive!