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I doubt this explains the world-wide phenomenon, but regionally sure. I remember in the 90s when studies brought the Nigerian population estimates down this tri

I doubt this explains the world-wide phenomenon, but regionally sure. I remember in the 90s when studies brought the Nigerian population estimates down this triggered a drop of growth forecasts across sub-Saharan Africa. Edit: changed world-wife (which sounds interesting demographically) to world-wide

varjag 9mo ago
Sure, it is quite far-fetched. However it is extremely uncommon that we experience unified social trends all across the board, from liberal Finland or Japan to North Korea and Taliban-run Afghanistan. Usually there are odd reversals and exceptions here and there; not this time apparently. And we still lack a satisfying theory that could account for fertility decline in every country.
- cyberax 9mo ago
  We do. It's called "urbanization". Large cities are inherently inimical to living in large families. And yes, it was apparently the case even in the Roman Empire.
  - varjag 9mo ago
    Decline happens also in territories that had been urbanized decades or even centuries ago but had positive fertility rate until 2010s. As I said you can pull a patchy blanket of micro-theories explaining each region but not one theory that accounts for them all.
    - cyberax 9mo ago
      Yes, but it happened in stages. The fertility fell each time people moved into higher density areas. You can even see mild recovery when de-densification happens. It's very interesting to compare the fertility rate in Denmark and Netherlands: https://www.macrotrends.net/datasets/global-metrics/countries/dnk/denmark/fertility-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/datasets/global-metrics/countrie... https://www.macrotrends.net/datasets/global-metrics/countries/nld/netherlands/fertility-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/datasets/global-metrics/countrie... You can see the dip and a recovery in Denmark and essentially no recovery in Netherlands (until post 2000, but that was due to immigration). Why? Here's the answer: https://www.macrotrends.net/datasets/global-metrics/cities/20894/copenhagen/population https://www.macrotrends.net/datasets/global-metrics/cities/2... https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/21930/amsterdam/population https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/21930/amst... Denmark de-densified its cities during the late 70-s (that's why Copenhagen is the world's most liveable city, btw).
      - varjag 9mo ago
        Generally when people say urbanisation is the cause of fertility decline they mean people moving out of 7 child families at subsistence farms and rice paddies to city factories. Not any developments in Denmark or the Netherlands in last 150 years.

varjag 9mo ago

Sure, it is quite far-fetched. However it is extremely uncommon that we experience unified social trends all across the board, from liberal Finland or Japan to North Korea and Taliban-run Afghanistan. Usually there are odd reversals and exceptions here and there; not this time apparently. And we still lack a satisfying theory that could account for fertility decline in every country.

cyberax 9mo ago
We do. It's called "urbanization". Large cities are inherently inimical to living in large families. And yes, it was apparently the case even in the Roman Empire.
- varjag 9mo ago
  Decline happens also in territories that had been urbanized decades or even centuries ago but had positive fertility rate until 2010s. As I said you can pull a patchy blanket of micro-theories explaining each region but not one theory that accounts for them all.
  - cyberax 9mo ago
    Yes, but it happened in stages. The fertility fell each time people moved into higher density areas. You can even see mild recovery when de-densification happens. It's very interesting to compare the fertility rate in Denmark and Netherlands: https://www.macrotrends.net/datasets/global-metrics/countries/dnk/denmark/fertility-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/datasets/global-metrics/countrie... https://www.macrotrends.net/datasets/global-metrics/countries/nld/netherlands/fertility-rate https://www.macrotrends.net/datasets/global-metrics/countrie... You can see the dip and a recovery in Denmark and essentially no recovery in Netherlands (until post 2000, but that was due to immigration). Why? Here's the answer: https://www.macrotrends.net/datasets/global-metrics/cities/20894/copenhagen/population https://www.macrotrends.net/datasets/global-metrics/cities/2... https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/21930/amsterdam/population https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/cities/21930/amst... Denmark de-densified its cities during the late 70-s (that's why Copenhagen is the world's most liveable city, btw).
    - varjag 9mo ago
      Generally when people say urbanisation is the cause of fertility decline they mean people moving out of 7 child families at subsistence farms and rice paddies to city factories. Not any developments in Denmark or the Netherlands in last 150 years.