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> How good for the EU will it be if the US collapses into financial ruin (it won't)? this isn't the aim the aim is to decouple enough so you can't be blackmai

by blibble 8mo ago

> How good for the EU will it be if the US collapses into financial ruin (it won't)? this isn't the aim the aim is to decouple enough so you can't be blackmailed which unfortunately is quite a herculean task, but hey, you've gotta start somewhere > The EU can say well we're going to go sell all these treasuries, well they become worth less and less and collapse the global economy. they won't sell them simultaneously, because that would be crazy but they will change their portfolio allocations over time in response to these new risks made obvious from the hourly yelling out of the white house which increases US funding costs, decreasing its competitiveness, which is a vicious circle if it goes on long enough, other trading partners won't want to be paid in dollars at all

ericmay 8mo ago
I wouldn't frame EU activity as decoupling from the United States, though the irony of "decoupling" from the US and cozying up to China is super cringe* despite our bombastic and rude American president. * Instead the EU is engaging in increasingly protectionist activity to build more domestic industry. I don't have a problem with that, but I'm also more on the protectionist side given the current state of global affairs and the need for the US to decouple from China - or is it only the EU that gets to decouple from a major trading partner and the US isn't allowed? At least that's what is parroted on the Internet. :) * Just a quick note, there's a lot of uproar on the Internet over Greenland. Deservedly. But if the EU "decouples" from the US, there's no incentive for the US to not, for example, take over Greenland. These are the kinds of push-pull engagements that are continually failed to take into account by most commentaries and in most discussions. Again it's centered around what the EU will do, or what China will do, and so forth and the analysis never makes it past this, despite the most important activities happening downstream from initial activities. * I'm an Ukraine hawk - US should have went straight to war with Russia over the invasion - being overly simplistic here but just to illustrate my hawkish-ness. But the EU is sitting here telling us it's this huge problem that Russia is invading Ukraine, yet they're happy to increase cooperation and trading with China who is providing support to Russia for their invasion? Of course, these things are all part of a negotiating mix. Maybe increasing trade will help China stop helping Russia's war against Ukraine, but if we wanted to stop analysis at the very first thing we see as everyone seems to want to do with respect to the EU or China, we could just look at that activity and say, well, maybe we shouldn't help the EU here and if they really think Ukraine is a problem they should take these other actions instead, whatever they may be.
- blibble 8mo ago
  > Instead the EU is engaging in increasingly protectionist activity to build more domestic industry. yes, this is why it was created, it's why it exists! I have absolutely no problem with the US deciding to re-balance its economy using tariffs, that is its sovereign right but I have a problem with it using them as a tool of coercion against its "allies" to achieve foreign policy objectives and not to mention the direct threats of annexation > But if the EU "decouples" from the US, there's no incentive for the US to not, for example, take over Greenland. if you assume the decoupling has completed, then the rest of the west would by definition be capable of defending itself without being subject to coercion/blackmail (there's also the the two nuclear powers treaty bound to defend it)
- palata 8mo ago
  > But if the EU "decouples" from the US, there's no incentive for the US to not, for example, take over Greenland. You're saying "I had sex with my best friend's wife and now he doesn't want to see me anymore. This is stupid: if he doesn't want to be my friend, then there is no incentive for me to not have sex with his wife. He should still be my friend". If you go like this in real life, I wonder how many friends you have :-).
  - ericmay 8mo ago
    I don't think that's a good analogy. But if you want to stick with it, in this scenario the situation would be you aren't friends, and don't intend to be because you both made each other really mad, and by having sex with the wife she gives you a lot of good stuff that you want and you're not really concerned with your former friend's feelings.
    - palata 8mo ago
      > in this scenario the situation would be you aren't friends You think that the Europeans bought defense systems that depend on the US without thinking they were allies?
      - 8mo ago

by blibble 8mo ago

ericmay 8mo ago

I wouldn't frame EU activity as decoupling from the United States, though the irony of "decoupling" from the US and cozying up to China is super cringe* despite our bombastic and rude American president. * Instead the EU is engaging in increasingly protectionist activity to build more domestic industry. I don't have a problem with that, but I'm also more on the protectionist side given the current state of global affairs and the need for the US to decouple from China - or is it only the EU that gets to decouple from a major trading partner and the US isn't allowed? At least that's what is parroted on the Internet. :) * Just a quick note, there's a lot of uproar on the Internet over Greenland. Deservedly. But if the EU "decouples" from the US, there's no incentive for the US to not, for example, take over Greenland. These are the kinds of push-pull engagements that are continually failed to take into account by most commentaries and in most discussions. Again it's centered around what the EU will do, or what China will do, and so forth and the analysis never makes it past this, despite the most important activities happening downstream from initial activities. * I'm an Ukraine hawk - US should have went straight to war with Russia over the invasion - being overly simplistic here but just to illustrate my hawkish-ness. But the EU is sitting here telling us it's this huge problem that Russia is invading Ukraine, yet they're happy to increase cooperation and trading with China who is providing support to Russia for their invasion? Of course, these things are all part of a negotiating mix. Maybe increasing trade will help China stop helping Russia's war against Ukraine, but if we wanted to stop analysis at the very first thing we see as everyone seems to want to do with respect to the EU or China, we could just look at that activity and say, well, maybe we shouldn't help the EU here and if they really think Ukraine is a problem they should take these other actions instead, whatever they may be.

blibble 8mo ago
> Instead the EU is engaging in increasingly protectionist activity to build more domestic industry. yes, this is why it was created, it's why it exists! I have absolutely no problem with the US deciding to re-balance its economy using tariffs, that is its sovereign right but I have a problem with it using them as a tool of coercion against its "allies" to achieve foreign policy objectives and not to mention the direct threats of annexation > But if the EU "decouples" from the US, there's no incentive for the US to not, for example, take over Greenland. if you assume the decoupling has completed, then the rest of the west would by definition be capable of defending itself without being subject to coercion/blackmail (there's also the the two nuclear powers treaty bound to defend it)
palata 8mo ago
> But if the EU "decouples" from the US, there's no incentive for the US to not, for example, take over Greenland. You're saying "I had sex with my best friend's wife and now he doesn't want to see me anymore. This is stupid: if he doesn't want to be my friend, then there is no incentive for me to not have sex with his wife. He should still be my friend". If you go like this in real life, I wonder how many friends you have :-).
- ericmay 8mo ago
  I don't think that's a good analogy. But if you want to stick with it, in this scenario the situation would be you aren't friends, and don't intend to be because you both made each other really mad, and by having sex with the wife she gives you a lot of good stuff that you want and you're not really concerned with your former friend's feelings.
  - palata 8mo ago
    > in this scenario the situation would be you aren't friends You think that the Europeans bought defense systems that depend on the US without thinking they were allies?
    - 8mo ago