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Pure logic would dictate that Tesla has a market cap of around $5B. It's actually fraudulent that it's not, and for some reason the SEC allows Musk to lie on ev
by sosomoxie 9mo ago
Pure logic would dictate that Tesla has a market cap of around $5B. It's actually fraudulent that it's not, and for some reason the SEC allows Musk to lie on every earnings call without repercussion.
- elzbardico 9mo agoWelcome to 2026: Companies routinely, exaggerate, obfuscate and mystify investors. Most of investors don't care. The SEC is a joke.
- FuriouslyAdrift 9mo agoSeems low on a company that is profitable and consistantly has around a $100B a year in revenue with only $13B in debt...
- dmbche 9mo agomore like 12b in 2022 and less every years since down 30% in 2025
- bratwurst3000 9mo agovw has over 300 billion revenue and way more profit then tesla. still not worth 1/10 of it. 5 billion sounds good for tesla
- FuriouslyAdrift 9mo agoVW is carrying $221B in debt and just closed their main plant in Germany because BYD is eating them alive.
- ahartmetz 9mo agoVW just closed a very small plant (165k cars in 24 years) in Germany, the one in Dresden. The largest ones are probably Wolfsburg and Emden, these are running. VW is in trouble, not in terminal decline.
- 1718627440 9mo agoAnd that plant was also more designed for prestige, i.e. if the costumer wants to see its car built on a carpet.
- FuriouslyAdrift 9mo agoIt is about the prettiest factory I have ever seen... all that glass.
- 1718627440 9mo agoFor a current building maybe. You know the Yenidze in the same city? Something went really wrong with architecture.
- deleted 9mo ago[deleted]
- Mr_Minderbinder 9mo agoA 5B market cap would imply a P/E ratio of 1.3 and a P/FCF ratio of 0.8, which essentially would be saying “this business is only worth approximately what it made last year”. The corresponding multiples for other auto makers are typically in the high single digits. Even if you believed Tesla’s whole business would collapse tomorrow (i.e. revenue goes to zero) book value is ~83B and net cash is ~29B.
- sosomoxie 9mo agoYes, I think that sounds about right.
- Mr_Minderbinder 9mo agoYou may think that sounds right but I can assure you that convincing others that ~$29B of accessible pure cash or ~$83B of equity is really only worth $5B will be a more difficult venture. You can dispute the carrying value of Tesla's assets and liabilities but the cash is cash which is why I included that metric as a baseline. At the end of the day $29B is worth $29B and nothing else.
- sosomoxie 9mo agoCool, so yeah I'd value them at $29B max (you have to account for all future lawsuits...). Far cry from $1.4T! Lots of downside yet to come.