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I've also heard this referred to as jevons paradox. I use AI to build AI systems that are being used and paid for by real users. I'm in the trenches doing cust
by FloorEgg 9mo ago
I've also heard this referred to as jevons paradox.
I use AI to build AI systems that are being used and paid for by real users. I'm in the trenches doing customer discovery, designing UX and producing product. Everything I do in my work either leverages AI or is built on AI capabilities.
The LLMs we have today are not capable of replacing most human knowledge worker jobs, and it's not clear to me they will be anytime soon. They are powerful tools but they are not remotely as generally intelligent as people.
The applications being built are more like power tools. The power drill and power saw didn't replace carpenters, it just enabled them to build more and faster.
People see a language calculator doing things that seem super human and assume it will replace human knowledge work, but without realizing the actual range of human intelligence and how it contrasts to LLMs.
There were people with the job title "calculator", and we don't have those narrow jobs any more, but there are more people using electronic calculators/computers to do calculations in their work than ever before.
There are at least three important misconceptions in thinking that AI is going to replace all human labor anytime soon:
- underestimating human intelligence
- overestimating current AI and it's rate of progress
- underestimating current unmet and future demand for getting stuff done
Even if AI makes knowledge work 99% more efficient, it doesn't mean there will be 99% fewer knowledge workers... More likely it means that there will be 100x or more demand for knowledge work, and the demand for the human components will stay the same or even grow.
- legitster 9mo agoA good example of this happening was the introduction of the ATM. ATMs actually increased the need to bank tellers, because so many more people ended up opening or using a bank account once getting money in and out became more convenient. (Of course, the prestige and pay of being a teller did take a hit as well).