David Shor's Blue Rose Research, which is a top polling firm that works for Democrats, found that if everyone had voted, Trump would have won the 2024 election

David Shor's Blue Rose Research, which is a top polling firm that works for Democrats, found that if everyone had voted, Trump would have won the 2024 election by 4.8 points: https://data.blueroseresearch.org/hubfs/2024%20Blue%20Rose%20Research%20Retrospective.pdf https://data.blueroseresearch.org/hubfs/2024%20Blue%20Rose%2... (page 6). Pew separately found a smaller, but significant 3 point margin: https://www.npr.org/2025/06/26/nx-s1-5447450/trump-2024-election-non-voters-coalition https://www.npr.org/2025/06/26/nx-s1-5447450/trump-2024-elec.... Independents almost by definition have less trust in institutions, and that includes voting. They're also quite unpredictable in what issues they'll find salient. For example, I suspect that in 2026, there will be a lot of independents who are directionally aligned with Trump on immigration, DEI, etc., but who will vote Democrat because Trump hasn't brought down grocery store prices like he promised.