I think you're correct that independents are broadly non-liberal, but I don't think it's accurate to say that they're in "lockstep" with anyone. Largely because

I think you're correct that independents are broadly non-liberal, but I don't think it's accurate to say that they're in "lockstep" with anyone. Largely because the modern GOP is quite factionalized: https://bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bjso.12665 https://bpspsychub.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bjso..... See Figure 2. Harvard-Harris does great issue polling that breaks down views on issues by political affiliation. Check out page 23 of the following: https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/HHP_Dec2025_KeyFindings.pdf https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/HHP... Independents clearly are aligned with Trump on many issues. For example, 63% support eliminating racial preferences in hiring and awarding government contracts, 65% favor closing the border, and 63% align with Trump on various gender-identity issues. On the other hand, independents also in-conflict with the establishment GOP on a number of other issues. 86% favor measures to lower Medicare drug prices, while only 36% support adding work requirements to Medicaid. (Harvard-Harris doesn't poll on abortion, but independents tend to be genuinely between the parties on that issue.) I think in the social circles of people who are still dating, whether someone is liberal or conservative is defined in terms of views on immigration or gender, rather than medicaid work requirements. So independents present as overwhelmingly conservative in that context. But that doesn't mean that independents are "lockstep aligned with the Republican Party" on tax cuts or other issues like that.