3 ms·

2008 was a lot worse.

by loeg 9mo ago

cmrdporcupine 9mo ago
2008 didn't really impact tech sector much though. Companies continued to hire through it, and in fact those that didn't often had a headcount deficit afterwards. And also the worst of 2008 was confined to the US. What we have now is more like 2001. Also most of these big companies were completely dysfunctional on their hiring through 21/22, just going completely apeshit. Now they're making everyone suffer for it.
- loeg 9mo ago
  Much less severe than 2001, where tech lost 250,000 jobs peak to trough (~18.5% from 2001 to 2003). Current downturn from peak (2022) is about 80,000 jobs (~3.2%). The timeframe for this period is longer and the magnitude is much lower. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6054150001 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6054150001
  - cmrdporcupine 9mo ago
    Interesting. I guess I'm surprised, because having lived through both, this somehow feels worse.
    - acdha 9mo ago
      In 2001, there were a ton of non-dotcom jobs where big companies, non-profits, governments, etc. wanted to move online for the real benefits it offered but had struggled to lure people away from bubble money. The people I knew who were laid off got jobs pretty quickly once they were looking outside of SF startups—not always the same money, but sometimes better and never much worse, and still building relevant career experience. The market is mature now, and most sectors of the economy are getting hammered at the same time: tariffs have most industries cautious about new commitments if they aren’t already cutting, academia is reeling from grants being rescinded, large chunks of federal spending are gone or frozen, and state/local governments are getting less federal funding at the same time everything else is affecting tax revenue and increasing demand for social services. With so much uncertainty affecting the entire economy, you hear from people who have hundreds of interviews because even established companies in stable industries are unsure what tomorrow will look like after the next whim of an unstable octogenarian.
int_19h 9mo ago
Once the dust settled, sure. We're still on our way to hit the bottom for this round, and by all accounts it's likely to be much bigger when we finally do.
- loeg 9mo ago
  If you say so.

2008 was a lot worse.

by loeg 9mo ago

2008 was a lot worse.

2008 didn't really impact tech sector much though. Companies continued to hire through it, and in fact those that didn't often had a headcount deficit afterwards. And also the worst of 2008 was confined to the US. What we have now is more like 2001. Also most of these big companies were completely dysfunctional on their hiring through 21/22, just going completely apeshit. Now they're making everyone suffer for it.

loeg 9mo ago
Much less severe than 2001, where tech lost 250,000 jobs peak to trough (~18.5% from 2001 to 2003). Current downturn from peak (2022) is about 80,000 jobs (~3.2%). The timeframe for this period is longer and the magnitude is much lower. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6054150001 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6054150001
- cmrdporcupine 9mo ago
  Interesting. I guess I'm surprised, because having lived through both, this somehow feels worse.
  - acdha 9mo ago
    In 2001, there were a ton of non-dotcom jobs where big companies, non-profits, governments, etc. wanted to move online for the real benefits it offered but had struggled to lure people away from bubble money. The people I knew who were laid off got jobs pretty quickly once they were looking outside of SF startups—not always the same money, but sometimes better and never much worse, and still building relevant career experience. The market is mature now, and most sectors of the economy are getting hammered at the same time: tariffs have most industries cautious about new commitments if they aren’t already cutting, academia is reeling from grants being rescinded, large chunks of federal spending are gone or frozen, and state/local governments are getting less federal funding at the same time everything else is affecting tax revenue and increasing demand for social services. With so much uncertainty affecting the entire economy, you hear from people who have hundreds of interviews because even established companies in stable industries are unsure what tomorrow will look like after the next whim of an unstable octogenarian.

int_19h 9mo ago

Once the dust settled, sure. We're still on our way to hit the bottom for this round, and by all accounts it's likely to be much bigger when we finally do.

loeg 9mo ago
If you say so.