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Not disputing your personal experience, but if that were true, democrats would never win any elections. There are far more NPA than either democrats or republi

• rayiner 9mo ago
  David Shor's Blue Rose Research, which is a top polling firm that works for Democrats, found that if everyone had voted, Trump would have won the 2024 election by 4.8 points: https://data.blueroseresearch.org/hubfs/2024%20Blue%20Rose%20Research%20Retrospective.pdf https://data.blueroseresearch.org/hubfs/2024%20Blue%20Rose%2... (page 6). Pew separately found a smaller, but significant 3 point margin: https://www.npr.org/2025/06/26/nx-s1-5447450/trump-2024-election-non-voters-coalition https://www.npr.org/2025/06/26/nx-s1-5447450/trump-2024-elec.... Independents almost by definition have less trust in institutions, and that includes voting. They're also quite unpredictable in what issues they'll find salient. For example, I suspect that in 2026, there will be a lot of independents who are directionally aligned with Trump on immigration, DEI, etc., but who will vote Democrat because Trump hasn't brought down grocery store prices like he promised.
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• georgemcbay 9mo ago
  My experience matches pretty closely with FireBeyond's. But I also think its worth noting that there's a difference between the group of people who are legitimately not political (don't really think or talk about politics) and the group of people who proactively identifies themselves as "independent" or "apolitical" when not specifically asked. It is the latter group of people who (in my experience also) are very likely to be conservative.