4 ms·

Protest votes are probably overstated, I think most of it comes down to people staying home. Everybody in America already knows what side they're on, and they

Protest votes are probably overstated, I think most of it comes down to people staying home. Everybody in America already knows what side they're on, and they either vote for that side or not at all. Virtually all political messaging is either trying to moralize your side or demoralize the other, to manipulate the relative ratios of who stays home on election day.

dylan604 9mo ago
> I think most of it comes down to people staying home Obama was able to get people motivated. Neither Biden nor Harris had anywhere near that motivating ability. I don't know that the Dems have anyone as motivating as Obama line up. The Dems seem to be hoping that enough people will be repulsed by the current admin to show up.
- mikkupikku 9mo ago
  Newsom is an extremely strong candidate. Vance has several critical vulnerabilities that can demoralize right wing voters if the election is handled properly, and the Republicans really don't have anybody else. Rubio maybe, but Rubio won't be able to get ahead of Vance.
  - dylan604 9mo ago
    Trump had more than several critical vulns as well which did not dissuade voters. The electorate isn't as predictable as many try to make it sound
    - mikkupikku 9mo ago
      Trump was able to moralize his voters, despite his weaknesses, by using a kind of charisma that Vance utterly lacks.
      - actionfromafar 9mo ago
        I think Vance isn't planning on using charisma, but violence.
  - SV_BubbleTime 9mo ago
    > Newsom is an extremely strong candidate. For what office? President? Do you live in California?
- deleted 9mo ago
  [deleted]
- SV_BubbleTime 9mo ago
  > Obama was able to get people motivated. Neither Biden nor Harris had anywhere near that How do you explain Biden getting so many more votes than Obama even while Trump improved with black and Hispanics over past Republican candidates?
  - ceejayoz 9mo ago
    > How do you explain Biden getting so many more votes than Obama US population in 2008: 304 million US population in 2020: 332 million https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/usa/united-states/population https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/usa/uni... Barring enormous turnout differences, pretty much every US election gets more raw votes than the last.
    - SV_BubbleTime 9mo ago
      Interesting theory, explain 2024 when the total went down. Simple enough explanation… 2020 was a massive outlier. If you forgotten, the topic is GP saying Biden didn’t motivate voters. Well, that does not seem correct.
      - ceejayoz 9mo ago
        2024 was a massive outlier. First black woman ever, and the first time a candidate got swapped out mid-campaign. You can't extrapolate much from that one.
      - Zak 9mo ago
        I think people were highly motivated in 2020 because of Trump, not Biden. The turnout would have been similar for any credible candidate running against Trump. What's weird to me is that a lot of people lost that motivation over the next four years. If they found Trump scary in 2020, they should have found him scary in 2024.
        SV_BubbleTime 9mo ago
        And then in 2024 they were 100% opposite motivated for Trump to win popular vote, increase with every demo except for white women, and move almost every single county in the country to the right? Why would Trump be so unpopular to boost Biden in 2020, then do so much better in 2024?

dylan604 9mo ago

> I think most of it comes down to people staying home Obama was able to get people motivated. Neither Biden nor Harris had anywhere near that motivating ability. I don't know that the Dems have anyone as motivating as Obama line up. The Dems seem to be hoping that enough people will be repulsed by the current admin to show up.

mikkupikku 9mo ago
Newsom is an extremely strong candidate. Vance has several critical vulnerabilities that can demoralize right wing voters if the election is handled properly, and the Republicans really don't have anybody else. Rubio maybe, but Rubio won't be able to get ahead of Vance.
- dylan604 9mo ago
  Trump had more than several critical vulns as well which did not dissuade voters. The electorate isn't as predictable as many try to make it sound
  - mikkupikku 9mo ago
    Trump was able to moralize his voters, despite his weaknesses, by using a kind of charisma that Vance utterly lacks.
    - actionfromafar 9mo ago
      I think Vance isn't planning on using charisma, but violence.
- SV_BubbleTime 9mo ago
  > Newsom is an extremely strong candidate. For what office? President? Do you live in California?
deleted 9mo ago
[deleted]
SV_BubbleTime 9mo ago
> Obama was able to get people motivated. Neither Biden nor Harris had anywhere near that How do you explain Biden getting so many more votes than Obama even while Trump improved with black and Hispanics over past Republican candidates?
- ceejayoz 9mo ago
  > How do you explain Biden getting so many more votes than Obama US population in 2008: 304 million US population in 2020: 332 million https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/usa/united-states/population https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/usa/uni... Barring enormous turnout differences, pretty much every US election gets more raw votes than the last.
  - SV_BubbleTime 9mo ago
    Interesting theory, explain 2024 when the total went down. Simple enough explanation… 2020 was a massive outlier. If you forgotten, the topic is GP saying Biden didn’t motivate voters. Well, that does not seem correct.
    - ceejayoz 9mo ago
      2024 was a massive outlier. First black woman ever, and the first time a candidate got swapped out mid-campaign. You can't extrapolate much from that one.
    - Zak 9mo ago
      I think people were highly motivated in 2020 because of Trump, not Biden. The turnout would have been similar for any credible candidate running against Trump. What's weird to me is that a lot of people lost that motivation over the next four years. If they found Trump scary in 2020, they should have found him scary in 2024.
      - SV_BubbleTime 9mo ago
        And then in 2024 they were 100% opposite motivated for Trump to win popular vote, increase with every demo except for white women, and move almost every single county in the country to the right? Why would Trump be so unpopular to boost Biden in 2020, then do so much better in 2024?