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this has to be one of the least useful metrics. The stock market goes up regardless. Consumers who are unconfident evidently don't stop consuming.
by paulpauper 10mo ago
this has to be one of the least useful metrics. The stock market goes up regardless. Consumers who are unconfident evidently don't stop consuming.
- bdangubic 10mo agoconsuming the stock market?
- paulpauper 10mo agoIf falling consumer confidence hurt consumer spending, this would be reflected in falling share prices in anticipation of falling earnings from consumers spending less
- bdangubic 10mo agoif the market was rational (which it is not)
- JohnFen 10mo agoThe relationship between those two things isn't necessarily clear. > Testable hypotheses about the relationship between stock prices and consumer confidence seem to appear in the business press whenever new consumer survey data is released. Headlines like “Rise in Consumer Sentiment Sends Share Prices Higher” 1 and “Stocks Tumble, Spurred by Dive in Consumer Confidence” 2 suggest that stock prices respond directly to measures of consumer confidence. Previous research into the matter, however, suggests that the headline writers have it backwards – that the direction of influence runs only one way, from stock prices to consumer confidence, and that any stock price response to new information about consumer confidence is ephemeral. https://www.rose-hulman.edu/~bremmer/professional/consumer_confidence_paper.pdf https://www.rose-hulman.edu/~bremmer/professional/consumer_c...