1. you can definitely tell apart an S-curve and an exponential if you look at the derivative(s). AI progress does not seem to be close to the middle of the S-cu

1. you can definitely tell apart an S-curve and an exponential if you look at the derivative(s). AI progress does not seem to be close to the middle of the S-curve. 2. e.g.: a slowdown hasn't shown up in moore's law yet.