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Baffling to see such a take on HN. If I give you a die and ask about the probabiliy for a 6, then it's exactly 1/6. Being able to quantify this exactly is the
by teiferer 9mo ago
Baffling to see such a take on HN.
If I give you a die and ask about the probabiliy for a 6, then it's exactly 1/6. Being able to quantify this exactly is the great success story of probability theory. You can have a different "gut feeling", and indeed many people do (lotteries are popular), but you would be wrong. If you run this experiment a large number of times, then about 1/6 of the outcomes will be a 6, proving the 1/6 right and the deviating "gut feeling" wrong. That number is not "pulled out of somebody's ass" or some frequentist approach. It's what probability means.
- YeGoblynQueenne 9mo agoYes, that's the frequentist approach. Surely, even on HN, there is an understanding that there are two interpretations of probability?
- CyberDildonics 9mo agoYou don't think that the probability of each side of a die is 1/6 ?
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- YeGoblynQueenne 9mo agoI see, you don't know what I'm talking about. My apologies, I assumed a common background. Here's some introductory materials on Bayesian vs frequentist interpretations of probability: Bayesian and frequentist reasoning in plain English https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/22/bayesian-and-frequentist-reasoning-in-plain-english https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/22/bayesian-and-fr... Comparison of frequentist and Bayesian inference https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/18-05-introduction-to-probability-and-statistics-spring-2022/mit18_05_s22_class20-prep.pdf https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/18-05-introduction-to-probabilit... To Be a Frequentist or Bayesian? Five Positions in a Spectrum https://hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/axvcupj4/release/1 https://hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/axvcupj4/release/1 Beyond Bayesians and Frequentists - Computer Science https://cs.stanford.edu/~jsteinhardt/stats-essay.pdf https://cs.stanford.edu/~jsteinhardt/stats-essay.pdf You'll find that it's a big subject with a long history and many strongly-held opinions that have nevertheless evolved over the years. Happy reading!
- CyberDildonics 9mo agoWhich one of these answers the question I asked?
- YeGoblynQueenne 9mo agoOh it's you. I didn't notice the username change.
- CyberDildonics 9mo agoMy account is over 11 years old. What other name are you thinking is mine?