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In my humble opinion, China taking Taiwan, if done under Trump, will be the market buying event of the century. It will tank the markets because people will as

In my humble opinion, China taking Taiwan, if done under Trump, will be the market buying event of the century. It will tank the markets because people will assume a depression-level event and WW3. But Trump isn't like other presidents. He'll make a deal with China. And finally, the China/Taiwan cloud over the markets will go away for good and countries can start trading freely with China again. Markets will severely over react initially. I can see TSMC benefiting hugely from this long term, as long as the reunification is peaceful no damage to any TSMC fabs or people. The reason is because TSMC will most likely be forced to open up to both Chinese and US customers. Right now, they can't serve the world's second largest market. Nearly half of their customers can't use them. I'm making these assumptions: 1. China won't use force (or very very little) to take Taiwan. 2. There won't be WW3 that will come out of this. You'd have to be an idiot to think that Americans will die defending Taiwan or that Europe will send troops when China is quickly becoming their biggest trading partners and US has shown they're susceptible to annexing Greenland. 3. China will operate 1 country 2 system long term with Taiwan.

CMay 9mo ago
1. I generally agree that China has a better chance with hybrid tactics that escalate in ways that meter western response, but Taiwan can force escalation too once it reaches a threshold and it would be within its right to. 2. If Russia, North Korea, South Korea and Japan join in there is a lot of potential for it to scale up. Whether it would become an all out horrific war like a World War or stay a little bottled up, it does risk becoming a huge conflict. Many Americans love South Korea and Japan, though they're less informed about Taiwanese. If South Koreans and Japanese are dying, we will be involved in one way or another. 3. No it won't. Look at what happened with Hong Kong, it broke its promise, just like the CCP breaks many of its promises. Not sure how bad they are compared to Russia in that regard, but it's pretty bad. Besides, if China wants to expand the way it seems like they want to, they need to take Taiwan so I doubt they would slow roll it.
- aurareturn 9mo ago
  2. Americans don't love South Korea and Japan enough to go die for them. You'd have to be insane to believe that. 3. Hong Kong is still a different system last I visited (2024).
  - sarabande 9mo ago
    Could you please consider making your points without "you'd have to be insane/an idiot to believe X"?
    - aurareturn 9mo ago
      Fair enough.
  - CMay 9mo ago
    Well, South Korea and Japan being involved would just be one factor that makes justification even easier. The real reason would be national and global security. It's in the interest of preservation of freedom. You don't wait until the enemy is at your doorstep, because that means you allowed them to snowball an avalanche at you. You meet them at their doorstep before they've gained full momentum.
    - aurareturn 9mo ago
      Do people still believe it’s about freedom?
      - CMay 9mo ago
        Absolutely, because it is. Sometimes it's about X, because X is also related to freedom. Let's set X = oil. Oil is a critical resource that is huge for transportation. If you are the one that controls it and people need it from you, that gives you leverage to encourage them to do what you want. An authoritarian country that engages in mass killings and torture of its own people could get away with a lot and even abuse other countries if it has enough oil. You can apply this to nukes and many other things. Like maybe you defend an ally. Why defend an ally? Having them makes you stronger. Why do you need to be stronger? To defend the way of life you believe in.
euroderf 9mo ago
> 3. China will operate 1 country 2 system long term with Taiwan. Um, based on the HK experience I would revise this to "2 countries 1 system".
- aurareturn 9mo ago
  How so?
jollyllama 9mo ago
Interesting theory, and all three of your assumptions are plausible, as is your conclusion. However, would you agree that the world you're describing is a world where the US Empire essentially comes to an end? I suppose you're saying it would be a graceful end, at least at the geopolitical level.
Revolution1120 9mo ago
1. You won't know the detailed plans or goals of China's top leaders; nobody knows, not even the mouthpieces within the Chinese system. 2. There's a significant chance the US will intervene militarily in Taiwan, while Europe is highly unlikely to do so, as it hasn't even taken significant action in the Russia-Ukraine war. Japan, however, is very likely not to stand idly by. 3. Public opinion in Taiwan is already predominantly pro-independence, and a large portion of the remaining non-independence supporters are simply afraid of war. Europeans (at least European media or commentators) are very unreliable; when the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, Europeans actually thought, "Wow, so there can be war in Europe too." Why would Europe be immune to war? There's no reason why Europe should be guaranteed to avoid war. If there is, then that reason is a "compensatory" one, using compromise with other evils to avoid war.

CMay 9mo ago

1. I generally agree that China has a better chance with hybrid tactics that escalate in ways that meter western response, but Taiwan can force escalation too once it reaches a threshold and it would be within its right to. 2. If Russia, North Korea, South Korea and Japan join in there is a lot of potential for it to scale up. Whether it would become an all out horrific war like a World War or stay a little bottled up, it does risk becoming a huge conflict. Many Americans love South Korea and Japan, though they're less informed about Taiwanese. If South Koreans and Japanese are dying, we will be involved in one way or another. 3. No it won't. Look at what happened with Hong Kong, it broke its promise, just like the CCP breaks many of its promises. Not sure how bad they are compared to Russia in that regard, but it's pretty bad. Besides, if China wants to expand the way it seems like they want to, they need to take Taiwan so I doubt they would slow roll it.

aurareturn 9mo ago
2. Americans don't love South Korea and Japan enough to go die for them. You'd have to be insane to believe that. 3. Hong Kong is still a different system last I visited (2024).
- sarabande 9mo ago
  Could you please consider making your points without "you'd have to be insane/an idiot to believe X"?
  - aurareturn 9mo ago
    Fair enough.
- CMay 9mo ago
  Well, South Korea and Japan being involved would just be one factor that makes justification even easier. The real reason would be national and global security. It's in the interest of preservation of freedom. You don't wait until the enemy is at your doorstep, because that means you allowed them to snowball an avalanche at you. You meet them at their doorstep before they've gained full momentum.
  - aurareturn 9mo ago
    Do people still believe it’s about freedom?
    - CMay 9mo ago
      Absolutely, because it is. Sometimes it's about X, because X is also related to freedom. Let's set X = oil. Oil is a critical resource that is huge for transportation. If you are the one that controls it and people need it from you, that gives you leverage to encourage them to do what you want. An authoritarian country that engages in mass killings and torture of its own people could get away with a lot and even abuse other countries if it has enough oil. You can apply this to nukes and many other things. Like maybe you defend an ally. Why defend an ally? Having them makes you stronger. Why do you need to be stronger? To defend the way of life you believe in.

euroderf 9mo ago

> 3. China will operate 1 country 2 system long term with Taiwan. Um, based on the HK experience I would revise this to "2 countries 1 system".

aurareturn 9mo ago
How so?

jollyllama 9mo ago

Interesting theory, and all three of your assumptions are plausible, as is your conclusion. However, would you agree that the world you're describing is a world where the US Empire essentially comes to an end? I suppose you're saying it would be a graceful end, at least at the geopolitical level.

Revolution1120 9mo ago

1. You won't know the detailed plans or goals of China's top leaders; nobody knows, not even the mouthpieces within the Chinese system. 2. There's a significant chance the US will intervene militarily in Taiwan, while Europe is highly unlikely to do so, as it hasn't even taken significant action in the Russia-Ukraine war. Japan, however, is very likely not to stand idly by. 3. Public opinion in Taiwan is already predominantly pro-independence, and a large portion of the remaining non-independence supporters are simply afraid of war. Europeans (at least European media or commentators) are very unreliable; when the Russia-Ukraine war broke out, Europeans actually thought, "Wow, so there can be war in Europe too." Why would Europe be immune to war? There's no reason why Europe should be guaranteed to avoid war. If there is, then that reason is a "compensatory" one, using compromise with other evils to avoid war.