4 ms·

> But 50 years from now most of that ICE infrastructure will have disappeared. I'm guessing it will be already in 20-30 years from now. In 5-10 years from now,

> But 50 years from now most of that ICE infrastructure will have disappeared. I'm guessing it will be already in 20-30 years from now. In 5-10 years from now, no-one will buy an ICE vehicle. Add to those 10 years a lifetime of 10-20 years for the last sold ICE vehicle and you get 20-30 years. So 20-30 years from today there will not be many ICE cars rolling on the streets and most gas stations and other needed infrastructure will be gone as it is not economical to stay in business.

kristofferR 9mo ago
Half the US takes pride in pollution though, and despise efforts to reduce it, so that's not gonna be the case everywhere.
- flakeoil 9mo ago
  In the US, money talks. I believe EV cars will be much cheaper to produce than ICE cars in 10 years from now. They will also have lower maintenance costs, better performance and lower energy costs. So there will be no reason to buy an ICE car over an EV in 10 years from now.
  - melling 9mo ago
    EVs are already cheaper to produce. That’s why the US has a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs.
bluGill 9mo ago
The average car is 12 years old (us, but other countries are similar). so gas stations are likely still common in 20 years. in 10 years new gas stations will be built a lot less often, but nobody will close an existing one that they wouldn't close anyway.
- flakeoil 9mo ago
  I mentionedf a lifetime of 10-20 years for a car. So 20 lifetime and 10 years from now is when the last ICE car is sold that makes 30 years from now there will be basically no ICE cars circulating.
- vel0city 9mo ago
  I think a lot of the smaller gas stations will slowly die off and we'll see continued growth of those kinds of fuel stations known for their food adopt EV charging as well and grow to offer food + energy whether that be gas or electric. Buc-ees these days has tons of rows of EV charging, often both Tesla and Mercedes brands. I imagine we'll see a similar thing with other brands.
  - bluGill 9mo ago
    It varies. As one station dies that temborarly strengthens the others on the same corner. Ev charging on highways will remain big business, but small rural town that support a few gas stations will support no ev charger because everyone charges at home.
    - vel0city 9mo ago
      I do largely agree with this. Those small and more remote rural towns are also likely some of the last places to highly electrify due to the particular needs of those kinds of lifestyles. You're far more likely to be towing a horse trailer if you live in such a place, which is something EVs will probably struggle with for a long while.
      - bluGill 9mo ago
        farmers already own their own gas station on the farm. They have on road diesel forethe trucks, off road diesel for the tractors (no road tax, otherwise the same - DOTs check this so nobody cheat), and gasoline for cars that never go to town (also for lawn mowers). Of course distance from town matters, if you live near town you won't have your own, but the farther town is the more useful your own personal supply is.
        vel0city 9mo ago
        True, but there's also that range of household that aren't truly a real farm operation yet live in that kind of space.
    - 8mo ago
- gpm 9mo ago
  If GP's prediction that no one is buying ICE cars 5-10 years from now, and the average car is 12 years old, by 20 years from now we're down to less than half the current ICE fleet by natural replacement. But the replacement isn't random. Rather people who drive the most all already replaced their vehicles to minimize costs. Gas stations would, under just natural replacement, be down well below 50% of their former sales. And that makes it worse. Gas is less conveniently available, and more expensive. Replacement isn't just targeted towards people who drive a lot, but it's well above replacement. I'd be surprised if there was 10 years between the last mass marketed gas cars being sold and the entire mass market fleet of cars no longer using gas. The infrastructure becomes unprofitable and ceases to exist in a negative feedback loop.
  - bluGill 9mo ago
    Excetpt there will be a long tail of stations that wouldn't instal pumps today - but since they already have them they will keep selling gas so long as everything passes inspections.

kristofferR 9mo ago

Half the US takes pride in pollution though, and despise efforts to reduce it, so that's not gonna be the case everywhere.

flakeoil 9mo ago
In the US, money talks. I believe EV cars will be much cheaper to produce than ICE cars in 10 years from now. They will also have lower maintenance costs, better performance and lower energy costs. So there will be no reason to buy an ICE car over an EV in 10 years from now.
- melling 9mo ago
  EVs are already cheaper to produce. That’s why the US has a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs.

bluGill 9mo ago

The average car is 12 years old (us, but other countries are similar). so gas stations are likely still common in 20 years. in 10 years new gas stations will be built a lot less often, but nobody will close an existing one that they wouldn't close anyway.

flakeoil 9mo ago
I mentionedf a lifetime of 10-20 years for a car. So 20 lifetime and 10 years from now is when the last ICE car is sold that makes 30 years from now there will be basically no ICE cars circulating.
vel0city 9mo ago
I think a lot of the smaller gas stations will slowly die off and we'll see continued growth of those kinds of fuel stations known for their food adopt EV charging as well and grow to offer food + energy whether that be gas or electric. Buc-ees these days has tons of rows of EV charging, often both Tesla and Mercedes brands. I imagine we'll see a similar thing with other brands.
- bluGill 9mo ago
  It varies. As one station dies that temborarly strengthens the others on the same corner. Ev charging on highways will remain big business, but small rural town that support a few gas stations will support no ev charger because everyone charges at home.
  - vel0city 9mo ago
    I do largely agree with this. Those small and more remote rural towns are also likely some of the last places to highly electrify due to the particular needs of those kinds of lifestyles. You're far more likely to be towing a horse trailer if you live in such a place, which is something EVs will probably struggle with for a long while.
    - bluGill 9mo ago
      farmers already own their own gas station on the farm. They have on road diesel forethe trucks, off road diesel for the tractors (no road tax, otherwise the same - DOTs check this so nobody cheat), and gasoline for cars that never go to town (also for lawn mowers). Of course distance from town matters, if you live near town you won't have your own, but the farther town is the more useful your own personal supply is.
      - vel0city 9mo ago
        True, but there's also that range of household that aren't truly a real farm operation yet live in that kind of space.
  - 8mo ago
gpm 9mo ago
If GP's prediction that no one is buying ICE cars 5-10 years from now, and the average car is 12 years old, by 20 years from now we're down to less than half the current ICE fleet by natural replacement. But the replacement isn't random. Rather people who drive the most all already replaced their vehicles to minimize costs. Gas stations would, under just natural replacement, be down well below 50% of their former sales. And that makes it worse. Gas is less conveniently available, and more expensive. Replacement isn't just targeted towards people who drive a lot, but it's well above replacement. I'd be surprised if there was 10 years between the last mass marketed gas cars being sold and the entire mass market fleet of cars no longer using gas. The infrastructure becomes unprofitable and ceases to exist in a negative feedback loop.
- bluGill 9mo ago
  Excetpt there will be a long tail of stations that wouldn't instal pumps today - but since they already have them they will keep selling gas so long as everything passes inspections.