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I love EVs, ever since I test drove an BMW i3 in 2012. Quiet with high drag - of course this is the future. BUT I don't think switching to EVs will help reduce

I love EVs, ever since I test drove an BMW i3 in 2012. Quiet with high drag - of course this is the future. BUT I don't think switching to EVs will help reduce CO2 in any way - not even if all the EVs are charged using 100% solar/wind. The narrative usually is "I get an EV instead of an ICE, charge it with regenerative energy and have 0 emissions, thus not burning oil and saving on CO2". But that is not how a globalized world with free markets works. In order to save on CO2, we would need to keep that oil not burned by the EV underground, but that does not take place. The market reality is that oil price will just drop with less demand from ICE vehicles. But with falling prices, other business models that require refined oil will become viable and the oil is still burned - just somewhere else. No one so far has made a good argument why the Saudis or Russians would leave their ressources underground, just because demand from ICE vehicles drop.

high_na_euv 9mo ago
Which businesses will become viable that will consume oil at this scale?
- littlecranky67 9mo ago
  Aviation industry comes to mind. The price of an airline ticket is mostly the fuel. With cheaper airline tickets, more people can afford to fly (especially in developing countries). And also, poor countries suddenly are able to get oil cheaper and built their industries just as we did 50 years ago.
t_tsonev 9mo ago
What you're missing here is that oil production and processing has huge fixed costs. Producers can't just pump out infinite oil at zero cost. The economies of scale break down and fuels become more expensive as demand drops.
muyuu 9mo ago
Cars do zero Carbon capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS). The potential is there to emit negligible CO2 when it's only energy-intensive large industry doing the fuel burning. Having said that, the path being taken in some countries to remove ICE is simply pushing large swathes of the population out of the car market. I don't support that, although I'm sure there are many people who do.
mtoner23 9mo ago
Reduced demand for oil reduces the quantity of oil extracted and purduced. The price drops and hardwr to extract oil stops being produced
- littlecranky67 9mo ago
  > Reduced demand for oil reduces the quantity of oil extracted That is not true. Reduced price leads to higher demand. This is economics 101. > The price drops and hardware to extract oil stops being produced Oil extraction costs differ vastly amongst countries, and there is a lot of potential for increased productivity and efficencies when the margins become lower - price pressure is a driver for innovation. And countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia have a very high incentive to keep extracting oil and sell it, because their economy relies on it.
  - danaris 9mo ago
    > This is economics 101. OK. And did you go to Economics 201? Because there, you might have learned that the basic economic principles you describe as "economics 101" are the equivalent of the "spherical cow in a frictionless vacuum"-type examples you get in introductory physics classes. In the real world, demand is affected by all kinds of things, and sometimes, a product or service is just no longer desired by the population. Do you think that if you were selling buggy whips for $0.05 each, you'd be able to make a profit on them today? Of course not, because people don't need them. You'd barely sell any, and those purely as a novelty. While there's still a lot of work to do to make it fully possible, and certain political groups are actively working against it, the world at large recognizes that getting off of fossil fuels is an important goal. Demand for oil is going to continue to drop—maybe not monotonically, but overall—regardless of what the price of oil does.
    - littlecranky67 9mo ago
      Your entire point hinges on EVs idrying up the oil market that there is no more demand. But ICEs don't run on oil, they run on gas or diesel. Oil is used in far more industries (aviation, ships). Plus, you cannot account for business models that become viable, that haven't been viable before. People come up with new ideas all the time.

high_na_euv 9mo ago

Which businesses will become viable that will consume oil at this scale?

littlecranky67 9mo ago
Aviation industry comes to mind. The price of an airline ticket is mostly the fuel. With cheaper airline tickets, more people can afford to fly (especially in developing countries). And also, poor countries suddenly are able to get oil cheaper and built their industries just as we did 50 years ago.

t_tsonev 9mo ago

What you're missing here is that oil production and processing has huge fixed costs. Producers can't just pump out infinite oil at zero cost. The economies of scale break down and fuels become more expensive as demand drops.

muyuu 9mo ago

Cars do zero Carbon capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS). The potential is there to emit negligible CO2 when it's only energy-intensive large industry doing the fuel burning. Having said that, the path being taken in some countries to remove ICE is simply pushing large swathes of the population out of the car market. I don't support that, although I'm sure there are many people who do.

mtoner23 9mo ago

Reduced demand for oil reduces the quantity of oil extracted and purduced. The price drops and hardwr to extract oil stops being produced

littlecranky67 9mo ago
> Reduced demand for oil reduces the quantity of oil extracted That is not true. Reduced price leads to higher demand. This is economics 101. > The price drops and hardware to extract oil stops being produced Oil extraction costs differ vastly amongst countries, and there is a lot of potential for increased productivity and efficencies when the margins become lower - price pressure is a driver for innovation. And countries like Saudi Arabia and Russia have a very high incentive to keep extracting oil and sell it, because their economy relies on it.
- danaris 9mo ago
  > This is economics 101. OK. And did you go to Economics 201? Because there, you might have learned that the basic economic principles you describe as "economics 101" are the equivalent of the "spherical cow in a frictionless vacuum"-type examples you get in introductory physics classes. In the real world, demand is affected by all kinds of things, and sometimes, a product or service is just no longer desired by the population. Do you think that if you were selling buggy whips for $0.05 each, you'd be able to make a profit on them today? Of course not, because people don't need them. You'd barely sell any, and those purely as a novelty. While there's still a lot of work to do to make it fully possible, and certain political groups are actively working against it, the world at large recognizes that getting off of fossil fuels is an important goal. Demand for oil is going to continue to drop—maybe not monotonically, but overall—regardless of what the price of oil does.
  - littlecranky67 9mo ago
    Your entire point hinges on EVs idrying up the oil market that there is no more demand. But ICEs don't run on oil, they run on gas or diesel. Oil is used in far more industries (aviation, ships). Plus, you cannot account for business models that become viable, that haven't been viable before. People come up with new ideas all the time.