4 ms·
and I wonder how much of your success / failure is luck vs advanced-anything. You could wager 7-figure bankrolls in vegas on blackjack or baccarat and _possibly
by gosub100 9mo ago
and I wonder how much of your success / failure is luck vs advanced-anything. You could wager 7-figure bankrolls in vegas on blackjack or baccarat and _possibly_ double or triple it. Doesn't mean your equation-solving had anything to do with it (in fact it expressly doesn't in that case).
- TacticalCoder 9mo ago> and I wonder how much of your success / failure is luck vs advanced-anything Well take someone who YOLO on a 0 DTE option and makes 80x (not unheard of) vs someone who wins the same amount over, say, four years and 8 000 trades... Well it's not impossible that the YOLOer is more skilled and has an edge (while also being a degen but that's not the point): it is just very unlikely. Thousands, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of trades is not the same as "gambling one night in Vegas".
- KellyCriterion 9mo agoStrictly wrong: - a casino is a random game - stock market is a game of incomplete informatoin The one cant related to the other by whatever equation.
- gosub100 9mo agoThe series of a shuffle of a 6-deck shoe is not "incomplete information"?
- mikrl 9mo agoTaleb calls it the Ludic Fallacy (game fallacy) The statistics of games are understandable, defined and easy to work with. The statistics of markets, as Soros spent his career investigating, are filled with feedback loops, and as Taleb investigated, fat tails.