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If that's the only risk, sure. But there's modelling and observation that suggest the required number of ASAT weapons to cause a Kessler cascade is currently ze
by ben_w 10mo ago
If that's the only risk, sure. But there's modelling and observation that suggest the required number of ASAT weapons to cause a Kessler cascade is currently zero, i.e. we're already in the early stages of one.
Because physics of orbital dynamics is less dramatic than shown in film, lowering orbits of satelites is an effective way to mitigate this.
- JumpCrisscross 10mo ago> there is a pretty good chance Source?
- ben_w 10mo agoYou're quoting something I didn't write; but to the point that we may already be in the early stages of a cascade, here's the modelling behind it: https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/sdc9/paper/305 https://conference.sdo.esoc.esa.int/proceedings/sdc9/paper/3...
- JumpCrisscross 10mo agoThis paper is brought up elsewhere in this thread and responded to. TL; DR It raises interesting modelling strategies, and develops on cool numerical methods from Kessler (2001), but it's far off from "pretty good chance."