5 ms·

How much did Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine and nat gas price and supply changes accelerate things?

toomuchtodo 9mo ago
Ember Energy: European electricity prices and costs - https://ember-energy.org/data/european-electricity-prices-and-costs/ https://ember-energy.org/data/european-electricity-prices-an... (updated daily)
- natmaka 9mo ago
  We must take into account the public money spent to build and maintain the electricity system. In France, for example, electricity is cheaper than in most similar countries, but nuclear power costs taxpayers a huge amount of money.
cies 9mo ago
[flagged]
- direwolf20 9mo ago
  If the US did the attack wouldn't it be on the US?
  - cies 9mo ago
    Yes. First that, now Greenland. But brrrr, Putin/Gadaffi/Sadam/Khomeni/Kim bad... (they never attacked Europe like this)
ZeroGravitas 9mo ago
Sadly we got a warning in 2014 with Crimea being seized and fossil apologists like Bjorn Lomborg argued against rolling out wind and solar faster in response. Because he's so "reasonable" and "pragmatic", he didn't say we shouldn't phase out Russian gas, he just said solar and wind don't work and so we should invent some totally new type of energy for this purpose. It's only with a few years hindsight that he's obviously a shill. You had to be paying close attention at the time to notice. And sadly that kind of engineered delay is widespread.
- torginus 9mo ago
  This is just a conspiracy theory of mine, but how credible is the notion that in Germany, the Greens who campaigned (successfully) for nuclear shutdown were in fact funded by Russia?
  - nandomrumber 9mo ago
    Whether true or not, it is almost entirely Greenpeace, and your local Greens party, who are to blame for us being in this mess. Without them raising panic about nuclear we could all be paying something closer to $40 - $80 a month for all the electricity we could reasonably consume, much like mobile phone plans / prepaid service. That would still leave transport and agriculture emissions to deal with, but they’d be easier to solve if we had virtually unlimited process heat to generate hydrogen > synth fuels.
    - natmaka 9mo ago
      > if we had virtually unlimited That's outdated: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Too_cheap_to_meter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Too_cheap_to_meter
  - nani8ot 9mo ago
    It was the conservative CDU with the economic liberal FDP which decided in 2011 to stop using nuclear power in Germany. At the time when the Greens were in power a decade later, it was already way to late to build out nuclear infrastructure again (not to mention the lack of fuel). So yes, you've metioned a conspiracy theory without any substance. The Greens continually pushed for renewables, which the (conservative) government largely ignored in favour of building gas pipelines to Russia.
  - _fizz_buzz_ 9mo ago
    Very unlikely. - The greens opposed the Nord Stream pipelines for years. And have been opposed to relying on natural gas for a long time. -Nuclear power is generally a contentious subject in German society. Probably because of Chernobyl and how a lot of the radioactive cloud blew into Germany. Whoever lived through this will have some dramatic memories of those weeks (kids not allowed to playgrounds/outside etc.). It was actually the CDU and FDP that finally decided the phase out of nuclear power after the Fukushima disaster. (The Greens also voted for it) - The Greens are very strong supporters of Ukraine. I personally believe the nuclear phase out was a mistake, but it had broad support in the German parliament and society. The phase out would have happened even if the greens hadn’t voted for it.
7952 9mo ago
The problem is that it lead to investment on the expectation of high electricity prices in the future. Oil companies went and overspent on offshore wind concessions. When the prices dropped they were back to relying on strike prices that didn't offer enough profit and cancelled schemes. At least in the UK offshore wind has been somewhat stalled by that and by delay to grid connections.

Ember Energy: European electricity prices and costs - https://ember-energy.org/data/european-electricity-prices-and-costs/ https://ember-energy.org/data/european-electricity-prices-an... (updated daily)

natmaka 9mo ago
We must take into account the public money spent to build and maintain the electricity system. In France, for example, electricity is cheaper than in most similar countries, but nuclear power costs taxpayers a huge amount of money.

cies 9mo ago

[flagged]

direwolf20 9mo ago
If the US did the attack wouldn't it be on the US?
- cies 9mo ago
  Yes. First that, now Greenland. But brrrr, Putin/Gadaffi/Sadam/Khomeni/Kim bad... (they never attacked Europe like this)

ZeroGravitas 9mo ago

Sadly we got a warning in 2014 with Crimea being seized and fossil apologists like Bjorn Lomborg argued against rolling out wind and solar faster in response. Because he's so "reasonable" and "pragmatic", he didn't say we shouldn't phase out Russian gas, he just said solar and wind don't work and so we should invent some totally new type of energy for this purpose. It's only with a few years hindsight that he's obviously a shill. You had to be paying close attention at the time to notice. And sadly that kind of engineered delay is widespread.

torginus 9mo ago
This is just a conspiracy theory of mine, but how credible is the notion that in Germany, the Greens who campaigned (successfully) for nuclear shutdown were in fact funded by Russia?
- nandomrumber 9mo ago
  Whether true or not, it is almost entirely Greenpeace, and your local Greens party, who are to blame for us being in this mess. Without them raising panic about nuclear we could all be paying something closer to $40 - $80 a month for all the electricity we could reasonably consume, much like mobile phone plans / prepaid service. That would still leave transport and agriculture emissions to deal with, but they’d be easier to solve if we had virtually unlimited process heat to generate hydrogen > synth fuels.
  - natmaka 9mo ago
    > if we had virtually unlimited That's outdated: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Too_cheap_to_meter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Too_cheap_to_meter
- nani8ot 9mo ago
  It was the conservative CDU with the economic liberal FDP which decided in 2011 to stop using nuclear power in Germany. At the time when the Greens were in power a decade later, it was already way to late to build out nuclear infrastructure again (not to mention the lack of fuel). So yes, you've metioned a conspiracy theory without any substance. The Greens continually pushed for renewables, which the (conservative) government largely ignored in favour of building gas pipelines to Russia.
- _fizz_buzz_ 9mo ago
  Very unlikely. - The greens opposed the Nord Stream pipelines for years. And have been opposed to relying on natural gas for a long time. -Nuclear power is generally a contentious subject in German society. Probably because of Chernobyl and how a lot of the radioactive cloud blew into Germany. Whoever lived through this will have some dramatic memories of those weeks (kids not allowed to playgrounds/outside etc.). It was actually the CDU and FDP that finally decided the phase out of nuclear power after the Fukushima disaster. (The Greens also voted for it) - The Greens are very strong supporters of Ukraine. I personally believe the nuclear phase out was a mistake, but it had broad support in the German parliament and society. The phase out would have happened even if the greens hadn’t voted for it.

7952 9mo ago

The problem is that it lead to investment on the expectation of high electricity prices in the future. Oil companies went and overspent on offshore wind concessions. When the prices dropped they were back to relying on strike prices that didn't offer enough profit and cancelled schemes. At least in the UK offshore wind has been somewhat stalled by that and by delay to grid connections.