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That makes sense, but if that's the case, why aren't they invading Taiwan now? Wouldn't now be the perfect time?

mano78 9mo ago
Yep, a time when anyone can say to an ally "Greenland must be mine" and more or less get away with it...
energy123 9mo ago
The consensus among Western defense and foreign policy types is that China will most likely invade Taiwan in 2027, relative to any other single year, conditional on them doing it at all.
- Jackpillar 9mo ago
  This 2027 date is based off a misread from a speech from Xi that he himself has since distanced himself from. 2027 is just used by war mongers and natsec folks to bang the war drums to siphon more money into the US military industrial complex. Unlike Russia, China isn't stupid and they don't need a full scale invasion to take over Taiwan.
  - energy123 9mo ago
    > 2027 is just used by war mongers and natsec folks to bang the war drums They correctly predicted Russia's invasion of Ukraine, while everyone using slurs like "war monger" did not. I will go with their opinion on this. Which, fortunately, is more balanced than what you're letting on. They're not saying that China will definitely invade Taiwan this decade, only that it is in the ~20% ballpark, and it's therefore prudent to prepare, because "assume the best" or "I can read the mind of their autocrat" is a terrible security doctrine.
saubeidl 9mo ago
Because that would be way more destabilizing globally before the precedent is set and China doesn't want instability. Which is also, coincidentally why they seem like a better trade partner to me as European at this point.
csomar 9mo ago
It seems like the timing gets more perfect every day. China is just watching the US self-destruct while Western Europe gets bogged down in its own issues. If the US continues to destabilize and Europe becomes vulnerable as a result, China could get Taiwan without firing a shot. No need to fight a war for it. TSMC would come out unharmed as a bonus.

Yep, a time when anyone can say to an ally "Greenland must be mine" and more or less get away with it...

The consensus among Western defense and foreign policy types is that China will most likely invade Taiwan in 2027, relative to any other single year, conditional on them doing it at all.

Jackpillar 9mo ago
This 2027 date is based off a misread from a speech from Xi that he himself has since distanced himself from. 2027 is just used by war mongers and natsec folks to bang the war drums to siphon more money into the US military industrial complex. Unlike Russia, China isn't stupid and they don't need a full scale invasion to take over Taiwan.
- energy123 9mo ago
  > 2027 is just used by war mongers and natsec folks to bang the war drums They correctly predicted Russia's invasion of Ukraine, while everyone using slurs like "war monger" did not. I will go with their opinion on this. Which, fortunately, is more balanced than what you're letting on. They're not saying that China will definitely invade Taiwan this decade, only that it is in the ~20% ballpark, and it's therefore prudent to prepare, because "assume the best" or "I can read the mind of their autocrat" is a terrible security doctrine.

saubeidl 9mo ago

Because that would be way more destabilizing globally before the precedent is set and China doesn't want instability. Which is also, coincidentally why they seem like a better trade partner to me as European at this point.

csomar 9mo ago

It seems like the timing gets more perfect every day. China is just watching the US self-destruct while Western Europe gets bogged down in its own issues. If the US continues to destabilize and Europe becomes vulnerable as a result, China could get Taiwan without firing a shot. No need to fight a war for it. TSMC would come out unharmed as a bonus.