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Curious if this will eventually change China's calculus with regards to Russia. If Europe is a big customer for Chinese exports, and Russia is antagonizing, it
by mekdoonggi 9mo ago
Curious if this will eventually change China's calculus with regards to Russia. If Europe is a big customer for Chinese exports, and Russia is antagonizing, it seems like China would have an incentive to put pressure on Russia.
It already seems like Russia is positioned to be completely subservient to China in the future.
- mschuster91 9mo ago> If Europe is a big customer for Chinese exports, and Russia is antagonizing, it seems like China would have an incentive to put pressure on Russia. China wants Russia to at least keep the Ukraine war going, if not eventually win the darn thing. Russia winning (or getting away with an armistice that lets them keep Crimea and Donbas) means a precedence China has for a land-grab of its own - obviously Taiwan, but other countries in its "sphere of influence" have seen hostilities for years, from land grabs [1] to overfishing [2], not to mention the border dispute with India. And as long as we are distracted with Israel/Palestine or Ukraine/Russia, China has free rein to do whatever they want. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_So... [2] https://nationalinterest.org/blog/energy-world/chinas-overfishing-problem-is-everyones-problem https://nationalinterest.org/blog/energy-world/chinas-overfi...
- mekdoonggi 9mo agoThat makes sense, but if that's the case, why aren't they invading Taiwan now? Wouldn't now be the perfect time?
- mano78 9mo agoYep, a time when anyone can say to an ally "Greenland must be mine" and more or less get away with it...
- energy123 9mo agoThe consensus among Western defense and foreign policy types is that China will most likely invade Taiwan in 2027, relative to any other single year, conditional on them doing it at all.
- Jackpillar 9mo agoThis 2027 date is based off a misread from a speech from Xi that he himself has since distanced himself from. 2027 is just used by war mongers and natsec folks to bang the war drums to siphon more money into the US military industrial complex. Unlike Russia, China isn't stupid and they don't need a full scale invasion to take over Taiwan.
- energy123 9mo ago> 2027 is just used by war mongers and natsec folks to bang the war drums They correctly predicted Russia's invasion of Ukraine, while everyone using slurs like "war monger" did not. I will go with their opinion on this. Which, fortunately, is more balanced than what you're letting on. They're not saying that China will definitely invade Taiwan this decade, only that it is in the ~20% ballpark, and it's therefore prudent to prepare, because "assume the best" or "I can read the mind of their autocrat" is a terrible security doctrine.
- saubeidl 9mo agoBecause that would be way more destabilizing globally before the precedent is set and China doesn't want instability. Which is also, coincidentally why they seem like a better trade partner to me as European at this point.
- csomar 9mo agoIt seems like the timing gets more perfect every day. China is just watching the US self-destruct while Western Europe gets bogged down in its own issues. If the US continues to destabilize and Europe becomes vulnerable as a result, China could get Taiwan without firing a shot. No need to fight a war for it. TSMC would come out unharmed as a bonus.
- mytailorisrich 9mo agoI don't think that mainland China needs any sort of precedent over Taiwan should they decide on military action. The situation is completely different from Ukraine. The South China Sea is also on long-running dispute that predates the PRC (and dates from a time where all the neighbouring countries were Western colonies...) and what has been happening is more a policy of "fait accompli" by occupying unoccupied disputed islands first rather than an "invasion". I don't know what is the thinking on Ukraine now in Beijing, but they were massively pissed off when Russia invaded because it has caused a lot of disruption to belt and road and to East-West relations in general.
- WarmWash 9mo agoDonbas is mostly wheat fields, Taiwan is mostly SOTA semiconductor fabs that currently are the sole pillar holding up the AI (and compute in general) zeitgeist. The global response would not be the same, even remotely. And what would China get from it? A tiny island of rubble and an ego boost, while losing enormous global favor? The cost of that island may well be a few trillion for China, just so they can say they defeated the nationalists.
- throwaway_45 9mo agoChina is playing the long game. They can go spend a trillion bucks and hire/steal the tech and they could destroy Taiwan's competitive advantage, and they could just economically crush them.
- mekdoonggi 9mo agoThe semiconductors are propping up the AI zietgeist in the US, but is that true globally? Why would Canada/Brazil/Europe care about Taiwan? China will still sell them the chips. The only one who would really care is the US. So by taking Taiwan, China blows up the US stock market and takes control of the chips.
- WarmWash 9mo agoEvery country on Earth benefits from the chips that come from Taiwan, and not just the governments, the people using pretty much anything that does computation. That includes China.
- mekdoonggi 9mo agoYes I am aware. Which means that if China takes over political control of Taiwan and says, "We will still sell chips just like normal to everyone except the US". Would the rest of the world decide to go to war with China for the political freedom of Taiwan?
- WarmWash 9mo ago
- david_draco 9mo agoChinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visted Europe and openly said to Kaja Kallas, the European Union's foreign-policy chief and other EU ministers: the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) does not want to see Russia defeated in Ukraine, fearing that the U.S. would then shift its full attention toward Beijing. https://www.economist.com/international/2025/10/28/china-is-backing-russias-war-to-keep-america-distracted-says-kaja-kallas https://www.economist.com/international/2025/10/28/china-is-... https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyxk4ywppzo https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyxk4ywppzo
- pmezard 9mo agoUSA already set the precedent with Venezuela. The rest also follows from Donroe Doctrine.
- munk-a 9mo agoChina is happy as a clam that Russia is self-isolating and destroying their internal economy. The natural resources of Russia are vast and if China is the only one exploiting them and funneling them into the Chinese economy it'd be an excellent outcome. I don't think China is opposed to strong economies as trade partners but dependent economies are much easier to control and monopolize.
- raincole 9mo agoIf Europe were a big customer for Russia energy, it seems like Russia would have an incentive to not antagonize it. Oh, see how well it went.
- jhrmnn 9mo agoEurope was a bit customer for Russia energy, and Russia invaded an EU neighbor nonetheless. After which it stopped being the customer. So it seems like that incentive didn't really work.
- mekdoonggi 9mo agoI think that was raincole's point. I guess we can't account for Russia or the US making decisions that are completely counter to the benefit of their people.
- mrweasel 9mo agoHad Russia indeed invaded Ukraine in three days, I don't think the EU today would have been any less dependent on Russians energy than in 2022.
- marcus_holmes 9mo agoWasn't it the sabotage of the pipeline that was the immediate cause of the switch? A practical demonstration of how reliant Europe was on Russian gas, by switching it off.
- nandomrumber 9mo agoThe EU hasn’t stopping being a customer of Russian gas.
- microtonal 9mo agoIt also works the other way around and I am pretty sure that was what Russia was betting on - with Europe's dependence on Russian energy, Europe would not react strongly to Russia's invasion. That did not go as expected for Russia either.
- 9mo ago
- filloooo 9mo agoYour geopolitical views are so naive it's hard to take seriously. EU is now an unwilling dumping ground for China, hostility and paranoia are growing by the day now that China is no longer a lucrative market itself and is pursuing its interests outside commerce, the cordial days are numbered. Russia would never be subservient to China, once the war ends Russia would be back being a geopolitical player because of its vast natural resources, and they are already import substituting even Chinese products. Russia can turn to the west to be a real western country whenever they see fit, the eternal fear for China. This is why China is going as far as it can to accommodate Putin, even souring it's relations with the EU which isolated itself. In this sense, it is China being "subservient" to Russia.
- mekdoonggi 9mo agoI am certainly not an expert. What resources or military capability does Russia have that China could not eclipse, replace, or source from a partner? What would it mean for Russia to become a "real" western country? Why would China fear that? Whatever happens, Russia needs to sell resources to stay afloat. I have a hard believing that if it came down to it, China couldn't just seize Vladivostok.
- filloooo 9mo ago[flagged]
- mekdoonggi 9mo agoCould you enlighten me instead of belittling and name-calling?
- Tade0 9mo agoRussia recovering from this invasion they started is the naive take. It's currently selling its resources at a steep discount and that is unlikely to change because its customers are only in it for the bargain they're getting.
- 9mo ago