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1. Pakistan is at a different stage of development than India. If India is 10-15 years behind China (which it is as China began reforming it's economy in 1978-8

1. Pakistan is at a different stage of development than India. If India is 10-15 years behind China (which it is as China began reforming it's economy in 1978-81 compared to 1991-94 in India), then Pakistan is 10-15 years behind India as well (largely because Pakistan didn't adopt the same IMF reforms India was required to in 1991-94). 2. Pakistan's solar uptick is primarily affluent households [0] looking to diversify from an unstable grid and rising electricity taxed, not a formalized strategy by Pakistan to switch to greentech. 3. The Pakistani government is doubling down on fossil fuels extraction and utilization [1] 4. Even Nigeria (a similarly sized country to Pakistan that is attempting to use the China and India model to industrialize) is leveraging both a solar strategy [2] as well as climbing up the fossil fuel value chain [3] in order to build domestic capacity in both technologies. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-solar-revolution-leaves-its-middle-class-behind-2025-04-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-solar-revo... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-ogdc-ramps-up-unconventional-gas-plans-2025-12-05/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-ogdc-ramps... [2] - https://energytransition.gov.ng/ https://energytransition.gov.ng/ [3] - https://engineersindia.com/dangote-refinery-and-petrochemical-project https://engineersindia.com/dangote-refinery-and-petrochemica...

toomuchtodo 10mo ago
India is adding 2GW of solar every month, with 105GW currently in development pipelines. Of course it remains to be seen if they maintain that pace or accelerate. Clean energy will continue to decline in cost, fossil fuels will not. Bookmark this subthread for a year from now :) India adds record 35GW+ solar PV in 2025 - https://www.pv-tech.org/india-adds-record-35gw-solar-pv-in-2025/ https://www.pv-tech.org/india-adds-record-35gw-solar-pv-in-2... - January 5th, 2026
- alephnerd 10mo ago
  None of what you said disproves the fact that India has stated it plans to expand coal capacity in parallel until 2047 [0]. It will be at a slower pace than the Solar PV rollout (which has an added benefit of helping force indigenization of a large portion of the electronics components supply chain due to value-add requirements for subsidy and permit allocation), but is still happening. [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-05/india-mulls-extending-coal-power-expansion-for-another-12-years https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-05/india-mul...
  - toomuchtodo 10mo ago
    India’s electrotech fast-track: where China built on coal, India is building on sun - https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/indias-electrotech-fast-track-where-china-built-on-coal-india-is-building-on-sun/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/indias-electrotech-... - January 22nd, 2026 > India is forging a better path to the electrotech future of energy. Cheap solar and batteries are enabling India to develop without the long fossil detour taken by the West and China. > When we compare India today with China at equivalent income levels ($11,000 PPP in 2012), several observations emerge: * Rapid solar deployment. In 2012, China had negligible solar generation. In 2025, solar accounted for 9% of India’s electricity generation, up from half a percent a decade earlier. India has a powerful new tool to scale cheap power, and it is using it to spectacular effect. * Much lower coal use. Indian per capita coal generation, at 1 MWh, is roughly 40% of China’s level in 2012. Coal demand is approaching its peak and is very unlikely to follow China’s subsequent ramp-up to around 4 MWh per person. * Rapid growth in EVs. In 2012, China had almost no electric vehicles on the road. By mid-2025, EVs accounted for around 5% of car sales in India and the country is the global leader in electric three-wheeler sales. * Much lower oil demand for transport. India’s per capita road oil demand, at 96 litres, is about half of China’s level in 2012 and is close to peaking. India is not going to rescue the oil industry. * A similar rapid electrification pathway. India’s electrification rate is nearly 20%, comparable to China’s level in 2012, and is growing relentlessly by around five percentage points per decade.
    - alephnerd 10mo ago
      Lower coal use =/= Not expanding coal. India's Power Ministry itself has planned coal power expansion [0] until 2047. India would be electrifying even faster if China wasn't export controlling IP [1] and taking India to the WTO for subsidizing green energy [2] [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-05/india-mulls-extending-coal-power-expansion-for-another-12-years https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-05/india-mul... [1] - https://www.mercomindia.com/china-tightens-curbs-on-export-of-lithium-ion-battery-components https://www.mercomindia.com/china-tightens-curbs-on-export-o... [2] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-files-wto-complaint-over-india-ev-battery-subsidies-2025-10-15/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-files-wto-complain...

toomuchtodo 10mo ago

India is adding 2GW of solar every month, with 105GW currently in development pipelines. Of course it remains to be seen if they maintain that pace or accelerate. Clean energy will continue to decline in cost, fossil fuels will not. Bookmark this subthread for a year from now :) India adds record 35GW+ solar PV in 2025 - https://www.pv-tech.org/india-adds-record-35gw-solar-pv-in-2025/ https://www.pv-tech.org/india-adds-record-35gw-solar-pv-in-2... - January 5th, 2026

alephnerd 10mo ago
None of what you said disproves the fact that India has stated it plans to expand coal capacity in parallel until 2047 [0]. It will be at a slower pace than the Solar PV rollout (which has an added benefit of helping force indigenization of a large portion of the electronics components supply chain due to value-add requirements for subsidy and permit allocation), but is still happening. [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-05/india-mulls-extending-coal-power-expansion-for-another-12-years https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-05/india-mul...
- toomuchtodo 10mo ago
  India’s electrotech fast-track: where China built on coal, India is building on sun - https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/indias-electrotech-fast-track-where-china-built-on-coal-india-is-building-on-sun/ https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/indias-electrotech-... - January 22nd, 2026 > India is forging a better path to the electrotech future of energy. Cheap solar and batteries are enabling India to develop without the long fossil detour taken by the West and China. > When we compare India today with China at equivalent income levels ($11,000 PPP in 2012), several observations emerge: * Rapid solar deployment. In 2012, China had negligible solar generation. In 2025, solar accounted for 9% of India’s electricity generation, up from half a percent a decade earlier. India has a powerful new tool to scale cheap power, and it is using it to spectacular effect. * Much lower coal use. Indian per capita coal generation, at 1 MWh, is roughly 40% of China’s level in 2012. Coal demand is approaching its peak and is very unlikely to follow China’s subsequent ramp-up to around 4 MWh per person. * Rapid growth in EVs. In 2012, China had almost no electric vehicles on the road. By mid-2025, EVs accounted for around 5% of car sales in India and the country is the global leader in electric three-wheeler sales. * Much lower oil demand for transport. India’s per capita road oil demand, at 96 litres, is about half of China’s level in 2012 and is close to peaking. India is not going to rescue the oil industry. * A similar rapid electrification pathway. India’s electrification rate is nearly 20%, comparable to China’s level in 2012, and is growing relentlessly by around five percentage points per decade.
  - alephnerd 10mo ago
    Lower coal use =/= Not expanding coal. India's Power Ministry itself has planned coal power expansion [0] until 2047. India would be electrifying even faster if China wasn't export controlling IP [1] and taking India to the WTO for subsidizing green energy [2] [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-05/india-mulls-extending-coal-power-expansion-for-another-12-years https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-05/india-mul... [1] - https://www.mercomindia.com/china-tightens-curbs-on-export-of-lithium-ion-battery-components https://www.mercomindia.com/china-tightens-curbs-on-export-o... [2] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-files-wto-complaint-over-india-ev-battery-subsidies-2025-10-15/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-files-wto-complain...