6 ms·

That's not true. Even the article points out that the renewables expansion is going hand-in-hand with the expansion of coal (similar to what China saw when it h

That's not true. Even the article points out that the renewables expansion is going hand-in-hand with the expansion of coal (similar to what China saw when it hit similar green electrifications rates 5-6 years ago). Additonally, countries will continue to invest in traditional fossil fuel technology in order to maintain strategic autonomy - why switch from the OPEC Cartel to China weaponizing REE [0] and Green Tech IP exports [1]. This is why you end up seeing ExAmerica and ExChina IP supply chains for GreenTech being built using Japanese [2], Korean [3], Taiwanese [4], European [5], and Israeli [6] IP. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/india-taking-steps-mitigate-disruptions-due-chinas-rare-earth-curbs-2025-06-27/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/india-taking-steps-mitig... [1] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-12/reliance-halts-cell-making-plans-after-failed-bid-for-china-tech https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-12/reliance-... [2] - https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/japan-s-sumitomo-to-double-spending-in-indian-renewables-to-1.3bn https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/japan-s-sumitomo-to-... [3] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/indian-miner-irel-seeks-japan-south-korea-partnerships-rare-earth-magnet-2025-08-14/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/indian-miner-irel-seeks-... [4] - https://www.pv-magazine-india.com/2025/05/19/premier-energies-sino-american-silicon-enter-jv-for-solar-wafer-manufacturing/ https://www.pv-magazine-india.com/2025/05/19/premier-energie... [5] - https://www.siemens-energy-india.com/ https://www.siemens-energy-india.com/ [6] - https://innovationisrael.org.il/en/calls_for_proposal/international-climate-tech-program/ https://innovationisrael.org.il/en/calls_for_proposal/intern...

toomuchtodo 10mo ago
Strongly disagree based on Pakistan’s uptake. China is already destroying 1M barrels a day of global fossil fuel demand for every 24 months of EV production. 25% of vehicles sold globally last year were battery electric (growing at a rate of 3M-5M units/year), over 50% in China. Oil is terminal, and already has a 2M barrel a day global production surplus currently, headed to 4M barrels a day. Coal equally so; even if generators get built, utilization will be low as it gets crowded out by renewables as is happening in China. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/01/20/pakistans-installed-pv-capacity-estimated-above-27-gw/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/01/20/pakistans-installed-p... > Pakistan has imported over 50 GW of solar modules from China, including 18 GW during the country’s last fiscal year. In the absence of official installation figures, Islamabad-based thinktank Renewables First says up to 33 GW of solar capacity could have been deployed in Pakistan to date. For comparison, Pakistan only has 8.5GW of coal generation and 17.4GW of gas generation. Solar uptake will continue, battery storage will follow, and India will do the same as solar and battery cost declines continue (imho). https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-export-data/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-export-data/
- alephnerd 10mo ago
  1. Pakistan is at a different stage of development than India. If India is 10-15 years behind China (which it is as China began reforming it's economy in 1978-81 compared to 1991-94 in India), then Pakistan is 10-15 years behind India as well (largely because Pakistan didn't adopt the same IMF reforms India was required to in 1991-94). 2. Pakistan's solar uptick is primarily affluent households [0] looking to diversify from an unstable grid and rising electricity taxed, not a formalized strategy by Pakistan to switch to greentech. 3. The Pakistani government is doubling down on fossil fuels extraction and utilization [1] 4. Even Nigeria (a similarly sized country to Pakistan that is attempting to use the China and India model to industrialize) is leveraging both a solar strategy [2] as well as climbing up the fossil fuel value chain [3] in order to build domestic capacity in both technologies. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-solar-revolution-leaves-its-middle-class-behind-2025-04-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-solar-revo... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-ogdc-ramps-up-unconventional-gas-plans-2025-12-05/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-ogdc-ramps... [2] - https://energytransition.gov.ng/ https://energytransition.gov.ng/ [3] - https://engineersindia.com/dangote-refinery-and-petrochemical-project https://engineersindia.com/dangote-refinery-and-petrochemica...
  - toomuchtodo 10mo ago
    India is adding 2GW of solar every month, with 105GW currently in development pipelines. Of course it remains to be seen if they maintain that pace or accelerate. Clean energy will continue to decline in cost, fossil fuels will not. Bookmark this subthread for a year from now :) India adds record 35GW+ solar PV in 2025 - https://www.pv-tech.org/india-adds-record-35gw-solar-pv-in-2025/ https://www.pv-tech.org/india-adds-record-35gw-solar-pv-in-2... - January 5th, 2026
    - alephnerd 10mo ago
      None of what you said disproves the fact that India has stated it plans to expand coal capacity in parallel until 2047 [0]. It will be at a slower pace than the Solar PV rollout (which has an added benefit of helping force indigenization of a large portion of the electronics components supply chain due to value-add requirements for subsidy and permit allocation), but is still happening. [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-05/india-mulls-extending-coal-power-expansion-for-another-12-years https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-05/india-mul...

toomuchtodo 10mo ago

Strongly disagree based on Pakistan’s uptake. China is already destroying 1M barrels a day of global fossil fuel demand for every 24 months of EV production. 25% of vehicles sold globally last year were battery electric (growing at a rate of 3M-5M units/year), over 50% in China. Oil is terminal, and already has a 2M barrel a day global production surplus currently, headed to 4M barrels a day. Coal equally so; even if generators get built, utilization will be low as it gets crowded out by renewables as is happening in China. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/01/20/pakistans-installed-pv-capacity-estimated-above-27-gw/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/01/20/pakistans-installed-p... > Pakistan has imported over 50 GW of solar modules from China, including 18 GW during the country’s last fiscal year. In the absence of official installation figures, Islamabad-based thinktank Renewables First says up to 33 GW of solar capacity could have been deployed in Pakistan to date. For comparison, Pakistan only has 8.5GW of coal generation and 17.4GW of gas generation. Solar uptake will continue, battery storage will follow, and India will do the same as solar and battery cost declines continue (imho). https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-export-data/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-export-data/

alephnerd 10mo ago
1. Pakistan is at a different stage of development than India. If India is 10-15 years behind China (which it is as China began reforming it's economy in 1978-81 compared to 1991-94 in India), then Pakistan is 10-15 years behind India as well (largely because Pakistan didn't adopt the same IMF reforms India was required to in 1991-94). 2. Pakistan's solar uptick is primarily affluent households [0] looking to diversify from an unstable grid and rising electricity taxed, not a formalized strategy by Pakistan to switch to greentech. 3. The Pakistani government is doubling down on fossil fuels extraction and utilization [1] 4. Even Nigeria (a similarly sized country to Pakistan that is attempting to use the China and India model to industrialize) is leveraging both a solar strategy [2] as well as climbing up the fossil fuel value chain [3] in order to build domestic capacity in both technologies. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-solar-revolution-leaves-its-middle-class-behind-2025-04-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-solar-revo... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-ogdc-ramps-up-unconventional-gas-plans-2025-12-05/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-ogdc-ramps... [2] - https://energytransition.gov.ng/ https://energytransition.gov.ng/ [3] - https://engineersindia.com/dangote-refinery-and-petrochemical-project https://engineersindia.com/dangote-refinery-and-petrochemica...
- toomuchtodo 10mo ago
  India is adding 2GW of solar every month, with 105GW currently in development pipelines. Of course it remains to be seen if they maintain that pace or accelerate. Clean energy will continue to decline in cost, fossil fuels will not. Bookmark this subthread for a year from now :) India adds record 35GW+ solar PV in 2025 - https://www.pv-tech.org/india-adds-record-35gw-solar-pv-in-2025/ https://www.pv-tech.org/india-adds-record-35gw-solar-pv-in-2... - January 5th, 2026
  - alephnerd 10mo ago
    None of what you said disproves the fact that India has stated it plans to expand coal capacity in parallel until 2047 [0]. It will be at a slower pace than the Solar PV rollout (which has an added benefit of helping force indigenization of a large portion of the electronics components supply chain due to value-add requirements for subsidy and permit allocation), but is still happening. [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-05/india-mulls-extending-coal-power-expansion-for-another-12-years https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-05/india-mul...