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India Is Electrifying Faster Than China Using Cheap Green Tech

5 points by alephnerd 10mo ago

toomuchtodo 10mo ago
The good news is, there will be no fossil infrastructure for clean tech to compete with in the developing world; they will leapfrog right to renewables, battery storage, and electric vehicles. India and Africa will not have the struggle the developed world has getting off of their stranded fossil assets and supply chain.
- alephnerd 10mo ago
  That's not true. Even the article points out that the renewables expansion is going hand-in-hand with the expansion of coal (similar to what China saw when it hit similar green electrifications rates 5-6 years ago). Additonally, countries will continue to invest in traditional fossil fuel technology in order to maintain strategic autonomy - why switch from the OPEC Cartel to China weaponizing REE [0] and Green Tech IP exports [1]. This is why you end up seeing ExAmerica and ExChina IP supply chains for GreenTech being built using Japanese [2], Korean [3], Taiwanese [4], European [5], and Israeli [6] IP. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/india-taking-steps-mitigate-disruptions-due-chinas-rare-earth-curbs-2025-06-27/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/india-taking-steps-mitig... [1] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-12/reliance-halts-cell-making-plans-after-failed-bid-for-china-tech https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-12/reliance-... [2] - https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/japan-s-sumitomo-to-double-spending-in-indian-renewables-to-1.3bn https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/japan-s-sumitomo-to-... [3] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/indian-miner-irel-seeks-japan-south-korea-partnerships-rare-earth-magnet-2025-08-14/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/indian-miner-irel-seeks-... [4] - https://www.pv-magazine-india.com/2025/05/19/premier-energies-sino-american-silicon-enter-jv-for-solar-wafer-manufacturing/ https://www.pv-magazine-india.com/2025/05/19/premier-energie... [5] - https://www.siemens-energy-india.com/ https://www.siemens-energy-india.com/ [6] - https://innovationisrael.org.il/en/calls_for_proposal/international-climate-tech-program/ https://innovationisrael.org.il/en/calls_for_proposal/intern...
  - toomuchtodo 10mo ago
    Strongly disagree based on Pakistan’s uptake. China is already destroying 1M barrels a day of global fossil fuel demand for every 24 months of EV production. 25% of vehicles sold globally last year were battery electric (growing at a rate of 3M-5M units/year), over 50% in China. Oil is terminal, and already has a 2M barrel a day global production surplus currently, headed to 4M barrels a day. Coal equally so; even if generators get built, utilization will be low as it gets crowded out by renewables as is happening in China. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/01/20/pakistans-installed-pv-capacity-estimated-above-27-gw/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/01/20/pakistans-installed-p... > Pakistan has imported over 50 GW of solar modules from China, including 18 GW during the country’s last fiscal year. In the absence of official installation figures, Islamabad-based thinktank Renewables First says up to 33 GW of solar capacity could have been deployed in Pakistan to date. For comparison, Pakistan only has 8.5GW of coal generation and 17.4GW of gas generation. Solar uptake will continue, battery storage will follow, and India will do the same as solar and battery cost declines continue (imho). https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-export-data/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-export-data/
    - alephnerd 10mo ago
      1. Pakistan is at a different stage of development than India. If India is 10-15 years behind China (which it is as China began reforming it's economy in 1978-81 compared to 1991-94 in India), then Pakistan is 10-15 years behind India as well (largely because Pakistan didn't adopt the same IMF reforms India was required to in 1991-94). 2. Pakistan's solar uptick is primarily affluent households [0] looking to diversify from an unstable grid and rising electricity taxed, not a formalized strategy by Pakistan to switch to greentech. 3. The Pakistani government is doubling down on fossil fuels extraction and utilization [1] 4. Even Nigeria (a similarly sized country to Pakistan that is attempting to use the China and India model to industrialize) is leveraging both a solar strategy [2] as well as climbing up the fossil fuel value chain [3] in order to build domestic capacity in both technologies. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-solar-revolution-leaves-its-middle-class-behind-2025-04-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-solar-revo... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-ogdc-ramps-up-unconventional-gas-plans-2025-12-05/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-ogdc-ramps... [2] - https://energytransition.gov.ng/ https://energytransition.gov.ng/ [3] - https://engineersindia.com/dangote-refinery-and-petrochemical-project https://engineersindia.com/dangote-refinery-and-petrochemica...
akshatrathi 10mo ago
I wrote this article. Happy to answer any questions.
- alephnerd 10mo ago
  Any visibility into potential climate financing expansion as part of the upcoming EU-India FTA, especially with regards to CBAM?
  - akshatrathi 10mo ago
    None yet. The EU doesn't have much fiscal capacity. But there are signs that the EU is being forced to get creative and speed things up. The Mercosur deal is a good sign (despite some pending issues).
    - alephnerd 10mo ago
      Fair enough! Long shot as well, but have you heard anything about whether Indian-European JVs will be allowed to take advantage of the EIF Climate Fund and Innovation Fund in the same manner that India-EU defense JVs are expected to take advantage of SAFE (at least according to what some other bureaus were reporting).
- Arnt 9mo ago
  I'm late to the party. Sorry. Why do such articles not distinguish between the cheapest and that which is the cheapest? Including this one. One might reasonably make a long-term policy for new power plants such as "40% of new power from the cheapest source, 20% each from x, y and z". If x is cheapest in a particular year then gets 60%, and articles tend to describe it as if the preference were "60% x, 20% each from y and z", see? Why is that?

5 points by alephnerd 10mo ago

The good news is, there will be no fossil infrastructure for clean tech to compete with in the developing world; they will leapfrog right to renewables, battery storage, and electric vehicles. India and Africa will not have the struggle the developed world has getting off of their stranded fossil assets and supply chain.

alephnerd 10mo ago
That's not true. Even the article points out that the renewables expansion is going hand-in-hand with the expansion of coal (similar to what China saw when it hit similar green electrifications rates 5-6 years ago). Additonally, countries will continue to invest in traditional fossil fuel technology in order to maintain strategic autonomy - why switch from the OPEC Cartel to China weaponizing REE [0] and Green Tech IP exports [1]. This is why you end up seeing ExAmerica and ExChina IP supply chains for GreenTech being built using Japanese [2], Korean [3], Taiwanese [4], European [5], and Israeli [6] IP. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/india-taking-steps-mitigate-disruptions-due-chinas-rare-earth-curbs-2025-06-27/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/india-taking-steps-mitig... [1] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-12/reliance-halts-cell-making-plans-after-failed-bid-for-china-tech https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-12/reliance-... [2] - https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/japan-s-sumitomo-to-double-spending-in-indian-renewables-to-1.3bn https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/japan-s-sumitomo-to-... [3] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/indian-miner-irel-seeks-japan-south-korea-partnerships-rare-earth-magnet-2025-08-14/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/indian-miner-irel-seeks-... [4] - https://www.pv-magazine-india.com/2025/05/19/premier-energies-sino-american-silicon-enter-jv-for-solar-wafer-manufacturing/ https://www.pv-magazine-india.com/2025/05/19/premier-energie... [5] - https://www.siemens-energy-india.com/ https://www.siemens-energy-india.com/ [6] - https://innovationisrael.org.il/en/calls_for_proposal/international-climate-tech-program/ https://innovationisrael.org.il/en/calls_for_proposal/intern...
- toomuchtodo 10mo ago
  Strongly disagree based on Pakistan’s uptake. China is already destroying 1M barrels a day of global fossil fuel demand for every 24 months of EV production. 25% of vehicles sold globally last year were battery electric (growing at a rate of 3M-5M units/year), over 50% in China. Oil is terminal, and already has a 2M barrel a day global production surplus currently, headed to 4M barrels a day. Coal equally so; even if generators get built, utilization will be low as it gets crowded out by renewables as is happening in China. https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/01/20/pakistans-installed-pv-capacity-estimated-above-27-gw/ https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/01/20/pakistans-installed-p... > Pakistan has imported over 50 GW of solar modules from China, including 18 GW during the country’s last fiscal year. In the absence of official installation figures, Islamabad-based thinktank Renewables First says up to 33 GW of solar capacity could have been deployed in Pakistan to date. For comparison, Pakistan only has 8.5GW of coal generation and 17.4GW of gas generation. Solar uptake will continue, battery storage will follow, and India will do the same as solar and battery cost declines continue (imho). https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-export-data/ https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-export-data/
  - alephnerd 10mo ago
    1. Pakistan is at a different stage of development than India. If India is 10-15 years behind China (which it is as China began reforming it's economy in 1978-81 compared to 1991-94 in India), then Pakistan is 10-15 years behind India as well (largely because Pakistan didn't adopt the same IMF reforms India was required to in 1991-94). 2. Pakistan's solar uptick is primarily affluent households [0] looking to diversify from an unstable grid and rising electricity taxed, not a formalized strategy by Pakistan to switch to greentech. 3. The Pakistani government is doubling down on fossil fuels extraction and utilization [1] 4. Even Nigeria (a similarly sized country to Pakistan that is attempting to use the China and India model to industrialize) is leveraging both a solar strategy [2] as well as climbing up the fossil fuel value chain [3] in order to build domestic capacity in both technologies. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-solar-revolution-leaves-its-middle-class-behind-2025-04-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-solar-revo... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-ogdc-ramps-up-unconventional-gas-plans-2025-12-05/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pakistans-ogdc-ramps... [2] - https://energytransition.gov.ng/ https://energytransition.gov.ng/ [3] - https://engineersindia.com/dangote-refinery-and-petrochemical-project https://engineersindia.com/dangote-refinery-and-petrochemica...

akshatrathi 10mo ago

I wrote this article. Happy to answer any questions.

alephnerd 10mo ago
Any visibility into potential climate financing expansion as part of the upcoming EU-India FTA, especially with regards to CBAM?
- akshatrathi 10mo ago
  None yet. The EU doesn't have much fiscal capacity. But there are signs that the EU is being forced to get creative and speed things up. The Mercosur deal is a good sign (despite some pending issues).
  - alephnerd 10mo ago
    Fair enough! Long shot as well, but have you heard anything about whether Indian-European JVs will be allowed to take advantage of the EIF Climate Fund and Innovation Fund in the same manner that India-EU defense JVs are expected to take advantage of SAFE (at least according to what some other bureaus were reporting).
Arnt 9mo ago
I'm late to the party. Sorry. Why do such articles not distinguish between the cheapest and that which is the cheapest? Including this one. One might reasonably make a long-term policy for new power plants such as "40% of new power from the cheapest source, 20% each from x, y and z". If x is cheapest in a particular year then gets 60%, and articles tend to describe it as if the preference were "60% x, 20% each from y and z", see? Why is that?