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Everyone seems to have forgotten the independent French nuclear deterrent. I should probably put an outside bet on the next country to get the Bomb being Polan
by pjc50 10mo ago
Everyone seems to have forgotten the independent French nuclear deterrent.
I should probably put an outside bet on the next country to get the Bomb being Poland, maybe by 2050. They've only just started building a civilian reactor, but weapons would make strategic sense for them.
- viking123 10mo agoI remember back when Poland was joining NATO, they basically said that we want in NATO or we will build our own nuke. Not sure if Trump understands that he is playing quite a dangerous game in terms of nuclear proliferation because if the US deterrent goes away, the small countries will start thinking about it.
- galangalalgol 10mo agoGood analysis out there indicating sweden could beat Poland there. Finland and Germany also on the likely list. Then in the east Japan and sk. The npt is dead. The French government being completely gridlocked with a nonzero chance to go authoritarian itself, along with the us stepping away guarantee this.
- triceratops 10mo ago> Good analysis out there indicating sweden could beat Poland there https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_nuclear_weapons_program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_nuclear_weapons_progra...
- ben_w 10mo agoI would say the next country is likely much sooner than 2050, because 24 years is longer than the timelines for China, for India and Pakistan given when they became independent even assuming they started on that immediately, I think for Israel but it's hard to be sure given the secrecy, South Africa arguably but IIRC they didn't complete it, and obviously the USSR, USA, France, and the UK.
- ifwinterco 10mo agoYep at the end of the day, this is 1940s/50s technology. It's complicated but not that complicated