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Eurobonds. It may actually happen if this continues. But given the speed of the usual EU decision process I would not be surprised if it takes them longer than
by jacquesm 10mo ago
Eurobonds. It may actually happen if this continues. But given the speed of the usual EU decision process I would not be surprised if it takes them longer than the current US administration to finally agree on the various terms. And that's good for Europe in multiple ways.
https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/eu-budget/eu-borrower-investor-relations/eu-bonds-eu-bills-private-placements_en https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/eu-budget/e...
In the meantime: German, Dutch, UK (technically not EU), Swiss, Nordic paper is also a good substitute and regardless all you really want to do here is not to hold an asset that may well become a liability so in that sense almost anything is better.
- marcyb5st 10mo agoSwiss bonds are super safe, but they have ~0 interest rate and so you lose out on inflation.
- vdupras 10mo agoWell, CHF gained 12% on USD YoY, so I guess that it ends up being much better yields than US treasuries.
- marcyb5st 10mo agoThat is fair. Sorry, colored by the fact that I actually live in Switzerland and so investing them in Swiss treasuries is like keeping the cash for me.
- jacquesm 10mo agoThat's an easy mistake to make. When you're looking internationally you always have to take the rates into account. For you it doesn't matter, but a lot of parties are investing in Swiss treasuries exactly because it is like keeping CHF. which tends to do well relative to their own. The long term USD vs CHF rate works out strongly in favor of holding CHF.
- robinsoncrusue 10mo agoEurozone has a looming debt crisis. ECB is actively capping the yields for countries bonds from Spain and Portugal which are showing stress signals. This will not end well for ECB this time around if they end up something like 2012. https://substack.com/home/post/p-185202466 https://substack.com/home/post/p-185202466
- jacquesm 10mo agoYou're going to make a lot of money then by shorting EU stocks, right?
- robinsoncrusue 10mo agoStock market is different from bond market, but bond market everywhere is showing stress signal. Just look at Japan. But yeah, eventually it will spill in stocks.
- scoofy 10mo agoFixed income are just the weirdest markets. Like, the most boring and the most insane... kind of at the same time.