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US 10- and 30-year bonds are trading at their highest yields (lowest prices) since, uh, August/September 2025. Or in historical context, rates that were more c
by loeg 9mo ago
US 10- and 30-year bonds are trading at their highest yields (lowest prices) since, uh, August/September 2025. Or in historical context, rates that were more common before 2007 and the ZIRP period.
- rsync 9mo agoSome additional context: on March 10, 2023, which is the date that Silicon Valley Bank collapsed, 30 year treasuries had a yield of 3.70. Today the yield is ~4.9. Now, in 2026, how many institutions are "picking up pennies in front of steamrollers" ?
- hopelite 9mo agoThat all has way more to do with Japan’s bond issues and the carry trade unwinding. 8 billion will have caused a tick, but that’s nothing.
- downrightmike 9mo agoWhich explains why the DOJ is going after the FED for not lowerign interest rates. They assume ZIRP will solve their problems, but that just kicks the can down the road, and it won't go far this time. Even Japan, which was our model for yield curve control has abandoned that theory. Bunch of dumb people running the room and no experts.
- IrishTechie 9mo agoDon’t think they’re dumb, their goals are just shorter-term, they need to juice the numbers before the next election cycle.
- hadlock 9mo agoThe only goal right now for a lot of people in Washington is to make "Number Go Up" ahead of November. So far the current strategies haven't been working, so they're going to have to get a lot more aggressive. Medium and long term consequences are a problem for the future.
- ethbr1 9mo agoSkirting close to or breaking the law has substantially worse outcomes in divided government. The GOP paranoia about November smacks of a belated realization that there might be consequences for things that were done.
- scoofy 9mo agoI mean, they've gerrymandered the country so much it's nearly impossible... good luck to the ones with very "efficiently" cracked districts.
- ethbr1 9mo agoGerrymandering (on any side) isn't going to decrease unless the federal government begins enforcing it under Constitutional and civil rights law, with Supreme Court blessing. Among its many flaws, the Constitution should have had a "elections run by an objectively fair method to each citizen" caveat before giving states the right to run their own elections. But that would have been pretty progressive for the late 18th century... In my dream world, we'd put enforceable boundaries on how much gerrymandering is acceptable via statistically stable methods (e.g. efficiency gap calculations). The easier solution would have been parliamentary-style proportional party list representation, but I'm not sure the fairness benefits outweigh the "not being able to vote for your individual" drawbacks.
- dripdry45 9mo agoThey are going to pass the save act, which disenfranchise is something like 60% of women voters in the United States. This will effectively invalidate a significant portion of Democrat voters right before the election, and before they were able to change their data
- TacticalCoder 9mo ago> Even Japan, which was our model for yield curve control has abandoned that theory. Common please: Japan's rates have hovered around zero for about 30 years. Three decades. Japan has never been the model for yield curve and the theory they "abandoned" has been recently abandoned, after three decades.
- downrightmike 9mo agoDid you skip 2020? And this was before the pandemic https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-new-tools-of-monetary-policy/ https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-new-tools-of-monetary...
- zrn900 9mo agoDumb people? Those dumb people made billions of dollars with that scheme and dumped the bill on the shoulders of people - like you. Who's the dumb one...
- downrightmike 9mo agoCorrupt dumb people