6 ms·

A brief search suggests this is around 1/4000th of the total US treasury market, so if this has any significance at all, it's symbolic.

deadbabe 9mo ago
Every waterfall begins with a drop.
- zeroonetwothree 9mo ago
  But 99.99% of drops do not cause a waterfall
  - gulfofamerica 9mo ago
    [dead]
  - willturman 9mo ago
    Drops don't cause waterfalls. Gravity does.
oulipo2 9mo ago
Symbolism has importance
- rdtsc 9mo ago
  Exactly but it has to be recognized as such. It’s easy to fall into self delusion and make it into some “oh yeah this will be collapse of the US empire, finally” story. Not, that it also fun to go with that story, but as long as everyone in the room understands it’s sort of a wishful fantasy.
  - b00ty4breakfast 9mo ago
    We might, in hindsight, see this as the first signs of the fall but anyone expecting a global empire to just collapse like a building, even in the accelerated pace of the modern world, is going to be disappointed. This will take years, possibly a decade or more...if the US is, in fact, collapsing.
margalabargala 9mo ago
1/4000th in this context seems huge to be honest.
- irishcoffee 9mo ago
  If the US paid $8B towards it debt every _day_ it would take over thirteen _years_ (completely ignoring interest accumulation, which isn't realistic) to pay off $38T in debt. I don't see how this is huge in context, it is indeed symbolic. Please don't get me wrong here, I am neither advocating the selling or not selling of US bonds. This specific sale just isn't statically significant in a vacuum. If this precipitates a snowball effect of bond-selling, completely different story.
  - wrs 9mo ago
    Regarding your last sentence, this isn't happening in a vacuum, and rejecting the risk-free assumption behind US debt seems like a symbol with a lot of information content.
    - irishcoffee 9mo ago
      Same point. It would need to increase by: an order of magnitude AND happen every day before it becomes a problem. $8B (actually $260m) isn’t moving markets. $80B/day for a month, that would move the needle. I understand why people want this to be a bigger deal. It just isn’t. Not yet.
  - blitzar 9mo ago
    > If the US paid $8B towards it debt every _day_ The US currently borrows an additional $9.5B every _day_ to fund itself.
    - irishcoffee 9mo ago
      I think we agree with each other. They borrow more than this paltry amount every single day and nothing changes. Selling less than the daily borrow amount, exactly one time, is a rounding error at best.
phkahler 9mo ago
>> A brief search suggests this is around 1/4000th of the total US treasury market, so if this has any significance at all, it's symbolic. If someone thinks the value of those bonds is going to drop, then selling would have great significance for the seller.
forgetfreeman 9mo ago
"There have been spontaneous demonstrations amongst the workers voicing their joy and gratitude at our happy new way of life." - Orwell, more or less.
- blipvert 9mo ago
  Faith Collapsing! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68DJCaqEpDc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68DJCaqEpDc
  - ceilajones4312 9mo ago
    [dead]
  - forgetfreeman 9mo ago
    Flawless response elevated to performance art by the username.
twelvedogs 9mo ago
No one wants to be left holding the bag
SilverElfin 9mo ago
Not really - it is going to show the world what alternatives people are pursuing as a strategy. Where they put their money will cause others to do the same. And the more people do it, the safer those new assets become. That will cause even more people to make the move. Note that China has been selling US treasuries for months now (https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-sells-treasuries-9-straight-months-91fc58a1 https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-sells-treasuries-9-st...) and there are signs that India has been quietly selling large amounts too. So it feels like the start of something much bigger, a total decoupling from the US due to its unstable politics, foreign policy, and quickly accumulating debt (Trump has added $5 trillion already and may add much more).
tgv 9mo ago
But it might also signify (as in: be a symbol) that European funds are less willing to buy future US bonds, which has a more dramatic impact.
deeg 9mo ago
It seems like if they are trying to put pressure on the US government it might be easier to dump Tesla stock. Maybe the billionaires and MAGA would buy to keep it propped up but if it turned into a selling frenzy musk could be in trouble.
deleted 9mo ago
[deleted]

deadbabe 9mo ago

Every waterfall begins with a drop.

zeroonetwothree 9mo ago
But 99.99% of drops do not cause a waterfall
- gulfofamerica 9mo ago
  [dead]
- willturman 9mo ago
  Drops don't cause waterfalls. Gravity does.

oulipo2 9mo ago

Symbolism has importance

rdtsc 9mo ago
Exactly but it has to be recognized as such. It’s easy to fall into self delusion and make it into some “oh yeah this will be collapse of the US empire, finally” story. Not, that it also fun to go with that story, but as long as everyone in the room understands it’s sort of a wishful fantasy.
- b00ty4breakfast 9mo ago
  We might, in hindsight, see this as the first signs of the fall but anyone expecting a global empire to just collapse like a building, even in the accelerated pace of the modern world, is going to be disappointed. This will take years, possibly a decade or more...if the US is, in fact, collapsing.

margalabargala 9mo ago

1/4000th in this context seems huge to be honest.

irishcoffee 9mo ago
If the US paid $8B towards it debt every _day_ it would take over thirteen _years_ (completely ignoring interest accumulation, which isn't realistic) to pay off $38T in debt. I don't see how this is huge in context, it is indeed symbolic. Please don't get me wrong here, I am neither advocating the selling or not selling of US bonds. This specific sale just isn't statically significant in a vacuum. If this precipitates a snowball effect of bond-selling, completely different story.
- wrs 9mo ago
  Regarding your last sentence, this isn't happening in a vacuum, and rejecting the risk-free assumption behind US debt seems like a symbol with a lot of information content.
  - irishcoffee 9mo ago
    Same point. It would need to increase by: an order of magnitude AND happen every day before it becomes a problem. $8B (actually $260m) isn’t moving markets. $80B/day for a month, that would move the needle. I understand why people want this to be a bigger deal. It just isn’t. Not yet.
- blitzar 9mo ago
  > If the US paid $8B towards it debt every _day_ The US currently borrows an additional $9.5B every _day_ to fund itself.
  - irishcoffee 9mo ago
    I think we agree with each other. They borrow more than this paltry amount every single day and nothing changes. Selling less than the daily borrow amount, exactly one time, is a rounding error at best.

phkahler 9mo ago

>> A brief search suggests this is around 1/4000th of the total US treasury market, so if this has any significance at all, it's symbolic. If someone thinks the value of those bonds is going to drop, then selling would have great significance for the seller.

forgetfreeman 9mo ago

"There have been spontaneous demonstrations amongst the workers voicing their joy and gratitude at our happy new way of life." - Orwell, more or less.

blipvert 9mo ago
Faith Collapsing! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68DJCaqEpDc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68DJCaqEpDc
- ceilajones4312 9mo ago
  [dead]
- forgetfreeman 9mo ago
  Flawless response elevated to performance art by the username.

twelvedogs 9mo ago

No one wants to be left holding the bag

SilverElfin 9mo ago

Not really - it is going to show the world what alternatives people are pursuing as a strategy. Where they put their money will cause others to do the same. And the more people do it, the safer those new assets become. That will cause even more people to make the move. Note that China has been selling US treasuries for months now (https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-sells-treasuries-9-straight-months-91fc58a1 https://www.barrons.com/articles/china-sells-treasuries-9-st...) and there are signs that India has been quietly selling large amounts too. So it feels like the start of something much bigger, a total decoupling from the US due to its unstable politics, foreign policy, and quickly accumulating debt (Trump has added $5 trillion already and may add much more).

tgv 9mo ago

But it might also signify (as in: be a symbol) that European funds are less willing to buy future US bonds, which has a more dramatic impact.

deeg 9mo ago

It seems like if they are trying to put pressure on the US government it might be easier to dump Tesla stock. Maybe the billionaires and MAGA would buy to keep it propped up but if it turned into a selling frenzy musk could be in trouble.

deleted 9mo ago

[deleted]