4 ms·

What would be more serious is if the Norwegian Government Pension Fund started to sell off US investments. That runs around $2 trillion.

IAmGraydon 9mo ago
Norway only holds $219 billion in US Treasury bonds. What investments are you talking about?
- wafflemaker 9mo ago
  Maybe they wanted to say what you did, but accidently used the total worth of the whole Oil Fund (as it's called in Norway, because it was started with money taxed from oil companies extracting in Norwegian seas).
- alecco 9mo ago
  >> sell off US investments I think he means also US stocks. So most of the wealth fund.
- blitzar 9mo ago
  https://www.nbim.no/en/investments/all-investments/ https://www.nbim.no/en/investments/all-investments/ I make it only 1.5 trillion equities - they run about a 70 / 30 split stocks to bonds. They could easily trim up their $50bn of Nvidia or their $50bn of Microsoft or their $40bn of Apple etc and put it to better use.
stackghost 9mo ago
Avalanches can start with a single stone. EU together with UK and Canada hold more Treasurys than the entire rest of the world combined, and if they dumped them all at once it would be significantly painful for the average American as interest rates would spike, as would inflation. The Dollar would decline against most other major currencies. However dumping that much debt all at once would require the sellers to heavily discount a large portion of their bonds, earning them increasingly fewer, and paying in (depreciating) dollars. It's exceedingly likely that de-dollarization accelerates from here, but it's also unlikely that even the Norwegian government sells it all at once. Rather than mass selling, expect EU entities to curtail or even cease buying US bonds altogether if the geopolitical situation doesn't improve.
- JanisErdmanis 9mo ago
  > However dumping that much debt all at once would require the sellers to heavily discount a large portion of their bonds, earning them increasingly fewer, and paying in (depreciating) dollars. I think all investors are now looking at this with this foresight. Being the first to dump seems to be the winning game here.
  - stackghost 9mo ago
    >I think all investors are now looking at this with this foresight. Being the first to dump seems to be the winning game here. When you're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars worth of bonds you simply can't move that much in one go. That's an elephant-in-the-bathtub situation where your moves disturb the market because of their size. Even the first entity to dump would still have to discount a lot of their bonds. Nobody on the bond market is going to make a $200B snap purchase.
    - jacquesm 9mo ago
      That's exactly what will drive the sell-off. Speed is key. Being the last one to sell is going to leave you with the worst of it.
- arnonejoe 9mo ago
  The fed would almost certainly intervene aggressively resuming large scale QE to buy up treasuries and stabilize yields.
  - ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
    Which would lead to inflation right? Leading to these bonds having even lower value? Showing that you don’t want to be the last one out since either the risk or inflation hits you.
  - elenchev 9mo ago
    we've played this game before
christkv 9mo ago
You have no idea how that would destroy the Norwegian State. They are addicted to money from that fund. A collapse in it's value would have direct impact on the finances of the state. Nearly 1/4 of the budget is funded from that found a year.
- onraglanroad 9mo ago
  That's got to be a tiny amount relative to the fund size though. Anyway, how would that destroy the fund? They'd be selling it not giving it away.
  - magicalhippo 9mo ago
    > That's got to be a tiny amount relative to the fund size though. Current total market value is about $2136B, of which ~$912B is invested in the US[1]. [1]: https://www.nbim.no/en/investments/the-funds-value/ https://www.nbim.no/en/investments/the-funds-value/ (see map at bottom for regional figures)
    - onraglanroad 9mo ago
      No, I mean the 25% of the Norway Government Budget must be a tiny amount of the fund.
      - magicalhippo 9mo ago
        The politicians have set a self-imposed limit[1] on how much they can use per year. It's currently 3% of the funds value, to ensure we don't need to reign in too much during hard times[2]. However politicians have tried to use less, for 2026 they plan[3] to use 452B NOK which is roughly 2.13%. However as OP points out, the total budget is around 2100B NOK, so the oil money pays for roughly a quarter. And that's becoming a bit of a problem in my view as well. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_budgetary_rule https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_budgetary_rule [2]: https://www.regjeringen.no/no/tema/okonomi-og-budsjett/norsk_okonomi/bruk-av-oljepenger-/handlingsregelen/id444338/ https://www.regjeringen.no/no/tema/okonomi-og-budsjett/norsk... [2]: https://www.regjeringen.no/no/statsbudsjett/2026/statsbudsjettet-2026-statens-inntekter-og-utgifter/id3123348/ https://www.regjeringen.no/no/statsbudsjett/2026/statsbudsje...

IAmGraydon 9mo ago

Norway only holds $219 billion in US Treasury bonds. What investments are you talking about?

wafflemaker 9mo ago
Maybe they wanted to say what you did, but accidently used the total worth of the whole Oil Fund (as it's called in Norway, because it was started with money taxed from oil companies extracting in Norwegian seas).
alecco 9mo ago
>> sell off US investments I think he means also US stocks. So most of the wealth fund.
blitzar 9mo ago
https://www.nbim.no/en/investments/all-investments/ https://www.nbim.no/en/investments/all-investments/ I make it only 1.5 trillion equities - they run about a 70 / 30 split stocks to bonds. They could easily trim up their $50bn of Nvidia or their $50bn of Microsoft or their $40bn of Apple etc and put it to better use.

stackghost 9mo ago

Avalanches can start with a single stone. EU together with UK and Canada hold more Treasurys than the entire rest of the world combined, and if they dumped them all at once it would be significantly painful for the average American as interest rates would spike, as would inflation. The Dollar would decline against most other major currencies. However dumping that much debt all at once would require the sellers to heavily discount a large portion of their bonds, earning them increasingly fewer, and paying in (depreciating) dollars. It's exceedingly likely that de-dollarization accelerates from here, but it's also unlikely that even the Norwegian government sells it all at once. Rather than mass selling, expect EU entities to curtail or even cease buying US bonds altogether if the geopolitical situation doesn't improve.

JanisErdmanis 9mo ago
> However dumping that much debt all at once would require the sellers to heavily discount a large portion of their bonds, earning them increasingly fewer, and paying in (depreciating) dollars. I think all investors are now looking at this with this foresight. Being the first to dump seems to be the winning game here.
- stackghost 9mo ago
  >I think all investors are now looking at this with this foresight. Being the first to dump seems to be the winning game here. When you're talking about hundreds of billions of dollars worth of bonds you simply can't move that much in one go. That's an elephant-in-the-bathtub situation where your moves disturb the market because of their size. Even the first entity to dump would still have to discount a lot of their bonds. Nobody on the bond market is going to make a $200B snap purchase.
  - jacquesm 9mo ago
    That's exactly what will drive the sell-off. Speed is key. Being the last one to sell is going to leave you with the worst of it.
arnonejoe 9mo ago
The fed would almost certainly intervene aggressively resuming large scale QE to buy up treasuries and stabilize yields.
- ViewTrick1002 9mo ago
  Which would lead to inflation right? Leading to these bonds having even lower value? Showing that you don’t want to be the last one out since either the risk or inflation hits you.
- elenchev 9mo ago
  we've played this game before

christkv 9mo ago

You have no idea how that would destroy the Norwegian State. They are addicted to money from that fund. A collapse in it's value would have direct impact on the finances of the state. Nearly 1/4 of the budget is funded from that found a year.

onraglanroad 9mo ago
That's got to be a tiny amount relative to the fund size though. Anyway, how would that destroy the fund? They'd be selling it not giving it away.
- magicalhippo 9mo ago
  > That's got to be a tiny amount relative to the fund size though. Current total market value is about $2136B, of which ~$912B is invested in the US[1]. [1]: https://www.nbim.no/en/investments/the-funds-value/ https://www.nbim.no/en/investments/the-funds-value/ (see map at bottom for regional figures)
  - onraglanroad 9mo ago
    No, I mean the 25% of the Norway Government Budget must be a tiny amount of the fund.
    - magicalhippo 9mo ago
      The politicians have set a self-imposed limit[1] on how much they can use per year. It's currently 3% of the funds value, to ensure we don't need to reign in too much during hard times[2]. However politicians have tried to use less, for 2026 they plan[3] to use 452B NOK which is roughly 2.13%. However as OP points out, the total budget is around 2100B NOK, so the oil money pays for roughly a quarter. And that's becoming a bit of a problem in my view as well. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_budgetary_rule https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_budgetary_rule [2]: https://www.regjeringen.no/no/tema/okonomi-og-budsjett/norsk_okonomi/bruk-av-oljepenger-/handlingsregelen/id444338/ https://www.regjeringen.no/no/tema/okonomi-og-budsjett/norsk... [2]: https://www.regjeringen.no/no/statsbudsjett/2026/statsbudsjettet-2026-statens-inntekter-og-utgifter/id3123348/ https://www.regjeringen.no/no/statsbudsjett/2026/statsbudsje...