4 ms·

I don't think you can compare pre-WWI Germany to the US for many reasons. In the colonial era, Germany as a fairly new state and unlike the UK, Spain, France, e

by jmyeet 10mo ago

I don't think you can compare pre-WWI Germany to the US for many reasons. In the colonial era, Germany as a fairly new state and unlike the UK, Spain, France, even Portugal or the Netherlands, they didn't have colonies to exploit. Worse, in the industrialization era they didn't have access to oil. This created a paranoia in Germany, an insecurity that were between Great Powers and were dependent on imports and poorer than their neighbours. They felt like they'd eventually get swallowed unless they did something and the end result was WWI. And WW2 if you think about it. The cost of victory against Germany (twice) was huge. All those Great Powers lost their colonies and they impoverished themselves with war economies while enriching the United States who, at times, sold arms to all sides. The US is that Great Power now, complete with colonies. It's energy independent too. So it's nohting like Germany. In fact it's turned Europe into a client state (ie through NATO). These aren't colonies in the British Empire sense of occupying India, for example. It's economic colonialism. The Global South is controlled via the IMF and World Bank. The developed world is controlled with security gurantees. But where I agree with you is that an absolutel moron has come along and threatens to dismantle this entire system. That's what's happening. Splintering NATO, abolishing USAID, etc all diminish American soft (and hard) power. China's foreign policy has become to sit and wait while the US destroys itself. They don't have to do anything anymore. It's why i laugh when people predict China will invade Taiwan. No they won't. Why? Because they don't have to. As a reminder, One China is the official policy of the US government. My problem is that empires don't die quietly. They die violently. And we're going to see a wave of fascism. Things are going to get much, much worse before they get better.

prennert 10mo ago
> They felt like they'd eventually get swallowed unless they did something and the end result was WWI. And WW2 if you think about it. I think this exactly how the US administration _feels_. Alexandr Dugin proposed spheres of influence. Russia starts acting on those. China is getting more powerful. Its now or never.
- jmyeet 10mo ago
  I'm an historical materialist. That means I don't believe religion, ethnicity or political philosophy ever drives international conflict. It's always, always, always material interests. Those other things are just an excuse, something to rile up the populace into supporting the government and dying on the front line. So some think Duginism and a Greater Russia is driving Putin's expanionist activity in Ukraine (including Crimea and the invasion in 2022). I don't see it that way. It's using the Russian diaspora as an excuse for expansion, similar to what Hitler did in Austria and the Sedetenland. But the interests are material. Russia does have a "legitimate" interest in not having a hostile Great Power on its borders. I include NATO as an extension of the US. I say "legitimate" in the sense that they're doing the exact same thing the US does. The US has the (ever-changing) Monroe Doctrine and almost started World War Three over Cuba (despite instigating the confrontation in Turkey). But NATO was never going to expand to include Ukraine. Bush and Biden both made offhand comments about it but countries like Germany would always veto Ukraine's membership because they don't want NATO on Russia's borders. And Putin knows this. So there's some historical revisionism going on to say that Putin invaded Ukraine because of NATO. I personally think he would've done it anyway. The real problem is that Russia wants a warm water port on the Black Sea and that's what Sevastopol is. Ukraine cut off the water and it's becoming increasingly expensive to maintain that holding so Russia has captured what's essentially a land bridge to Crimea and plans to hold on to it until the West gets bored. I believe that Putin arguably overplayed his hand by buying European silence on the matter with natural gas dependence. The US however spends a ton of money and military force and political will projecting power into, say, the Middle East. Is that in the US sphere of influence? No. The US is also a net energy exporter now so you can't even blame securing oil as an excuse for it. The US isn't operating in a deeply insecure fashion. Instead, they're simply extracting wealth from all over the world for the benefit of a handful of billionaires. I guess where the US is insecure is in that no system other than neoliberalism can be allowed to exist and prosper because it might cause the populace to revolt. The existence of the USSR actually forced to the US to give Americans something so they didn't revolt. This desire means that any quasi-socialist nation gets starved with sanctions and couped to maintain this illusion. And the US's big problem is they can't bully and starve China in this way.
  - rcxdude 10mo ago
seawsurf 10mo ago
Even if China begins to take over much of the world's economic power, I don't think the rest of the world will accept Chinese culture in the face of Western social values. The wave of fascism is already rising in Europe, but it is still very much under control. Like the AfD political party in Germany.
- jmyeet 10mo ago
  Under control how? France has Macron siding with Le Pen to keep Melanchon out of power. The AfD's power is growing and we'll see if there exists a coalition that can form a government without them after the next election. Many expect Nigel Farrage to be the next Prime Minister of the UK. This is why people say fascism is capitalism in crisis. All of these countries are choosing fascism rather than any socialist movement or even saying "maybe the wealthy could loot slightly less from the public purse". The rise of fascism is paved by centrist neoliberals siding with fascists to crush any leftist momentum. People are increasingly seeing what life is like in China. Affordable housing, affordable food and public infrastructure like extensive metros and high speed trains. That's the real problem with Tiktok (from the administration's perspective). People asking "why can't we have that?" is incredibly dangerous to the system we have. IMHO there's no unringing that bell however. "Western social values" are a luxury easily abandoned when you can't afford your rent. Populist fascism is rising because people are increasingly desperate and there's no alternative because the centrists are united with the fascists to crush any leftist momentum. The president ran on having Gestapo in the streets and having concentration camps. How loyal really are voters to "Western social values"? And what are prominent Democratic politicians doing? Suggesting more funding for ICE [1]. A populist party that ran on giving people healthcare and guaranteeing a roof over their heads and having enough to eat would win in a landslide. Every level of our political system is designed to make sure such a person can't rise to prominence. Don't believe me? Look at the 2024 election results and see how progressive voter initiatives did compared to the Democratic Party. Missouri, a deep red state, had a majority vote for raising the minimum wage, outperforming the Democratic Party by more than 20 points. [1]: https://www.newsweek.com/cory-booker-ice-proposal-progressive-backlash-11387090 https://www.newsweek.com/cory-booker-ice-proposal-progressiv...
  - 10mo ago
deleted 9mo ago
[deleted]

by jmyeet 10mo ago

prennert 10mo ago

> They felt like they'd eventually get swallowed unless they did something and the end result was WWI. And WW2 if you think about it. I think this exactly how the US administration _feels_. Alexandr Dugin proposed spheres of influence. Russia starts acting on those. China is getting more powerful. Its now or never.

jmyeet 10mo ago
I'm an historical materialist. That means I don't believe religion, ethnicity or political philosophy ever drives international conflict. It's always, always, always material interests. Those other things are just an excuse, something to rile up the populace into supporting the government and dying on the front line. So some think Duginism and a Greater Russia is driving Putin's expanionist activity in Ukraine (including Crimea and the invasion in 2022). I don't see it that way. It's using the Russian diaspora as an excuse for expansion, similar to what Hitler did in Austria and the Sedetenland. But the interests are material. Russia does have a "legitimate" interest in not having a hostile Great Power on its borders. I include NATO as an extension of the US. I say "legitimate" in the sense that they're doing the exact same thing the US does. The US has the (ever-changing) Monroe Doctrine and almost started World War Three over Cuba (despite instigating the confrontation in Turkey). But NATO was never going to expand to include Ukraine. Bush and Biden both made offhand comments about it but countries like Germany would always veto Ukraine's membership because they don't want NATO on Russia's borders. And Putin knows this. So there's some historical revisionism going on to say that Putin invaded Ukraine because of NATO. I personally think he would've done it anyway. The real problem is that Russia wants a warm water port on the Black Sea and that's what Sevastopol is. Ukraine cut off the water and it's becoming increasingly expensive to maintain that holding so Russia has captured what's essentially a land bridge to Crimea and plans to hold on to it until the West gets bored. I believe that Putin arguably overplayed his hand by buying European silence on the matter with natural gas dependence. The US however spends a ton of money and military force and political will projecting power into, say, the Middle East. Is that in the US sphere of influence? No. The US is also a net energy exporter now so you can't even blame securing oil as an excuse for it. The US isn't operating in a deeply insecure fashion. Instead, they're simply extracting wealth from all over the world for the benefit of a handful of billionaires. I guess where the US is insecure is in that no system other than neoliberalism can be allowed to exist and prosper because it might cause the populace to revolt. The existence of the USSR actually forced to the US to give Americans something so they didn't revolt. This desire means that any quasi-socialist nation gets starved with sanctions and couped to maintain this illusion. And the US's big problem is they can't bully and starve China in this way.
- rcxdude 10mo ago

seawsurf 10mo ago

Even if China begins to take over much of the world's economic power, I don't think the rest of the world will accept Chinese culture in the face of Western social values. The wave of fascism is already rising in Europe, but it is still very much under control. Like the AfD political party in Germany.

jmyeet 10mo ago
Under control how? France has Macron siding with Le Pen to keep Melanchon out of power. The AfD's power is growing and we'll see if there exists a coalition that can form a government without them after the next election. Many expect Nigel Farrage to be the next Prime Minister of the UK. This is why people say fascism is capitalism in crisis. All of these countries are choosing fascism rather than any socialist movement or even saying "maybe the wealthy could loot slightly less from the public purse". The rise of fascism is paved by centrist neoliberals siding with fascists to crush any leftist momentum. People are increasingly seeing what life is like in China. Affordable housing, affordable food and public infrastructure like extensive metros and high speed trains. That's the real problem with Tiktok (from the administration's perspective). People asking "why can't we have that?" is incredibly dangerous to the system we have. IMHO there's no unringing that bell however. "Western social values" are a luxury easily abandoned when you can't afford your rent. Populist fascism is rising because people are increasingly desperate and there's no alternative because the centrists are united with the fascists to crush any leftist momentum. The president ran on having Gestapo in the streets and having concentration camps. How loyal really are voters to "Western social values"? And what are prominent Democratic politicians doing? Suggesting more funding for ICE [1]. A populist party that ran on giving people healthcare and guaranteeing a roof over their heads and having enough to eat would win in a landslide. Every level of our political system is designed to make sure such a person can't rise to prominence. Don't believe me? Look at the 2024 election results and see how progressive voter initiatives did compared to the Democratic Party. Missouri, a deep red state, had a majority vote for raising the minimum wage, outperforming the Democratic Party by more than 20 points. [1]: https://www.newsweek.com/cory-booker-ice-proposal-progressive-backlash-11387090 https://www.newsweek.com/cory-booker-ice-proposal-progressiv...
- 10mo ago

deleted 9mo ago

[deleted]