4 ms·

‘Only 12% reported both lower costs and higher revenue, while 56% saw neither benefit. 26% saw reduced costs, but nearly as many experienced cost increases.’ S

by xvxvx 9mo ago

‘Only 12% reported both lower costs and higher revenue, while 56% saw neither benefit. 26% saw reduced costs, but nearly as many experienced cost increases.’ Stock up on dry beans and rice. See if your parents have a spare room. Don’t buy anything expensive. This bubble is gonna hurt.

imiric 9mo ago
Why the doom and gloom? It's going to hurt those who jumped on the bandwagon hoping to cash out. I couldn't care less about them, but I would like for computer hardware to be affordable again, and for the tech job market to go back to normal. Though I'm more concerned about the effects of the current political climate, than the "AI" bubble popping. In the scenario of that going south, nothing will be normal for a long time.
- lp0_on_fire 9mo ago
  The C-levels who jumped on the bandwagon are definitely not going to fall on their swords should it go south. They’ll blame the tech, fire some subordinates, suggest their customers for “not understanding it”, and their shareholders will eat it up as long as they get a pound of flesh.
  - hackable_sand 9mo ago
    They can't really stop swords falling on them though...
    - lp0_on_fire 9mo ago
      They’ll just move on to the next company that will hire them with a golden parachute. There’s minimal risk to the decision makers. Meanwhile, every one of us peons is significantly more at risk of losing our jobs whether we could be effectively replaced with these AI tools or not because our own C-level execs decided to drink the snake oil that is the current bubble.
      - hackable_sand 9mo ago
        Everyone is a decision maker. Don't let your perceived lack of impact discourage you. For instance, I help my community by feeding them. It's small, but powerful.
  - thewebguyd 9mo ago
    > suggest their customers for “not understanding it” See Microsoft's recent "We don't understand how you all are not impressed by AI." In the case of MS, you're right, Satya isn't going to fall on his own sword. They will just continue to bundle and raise prices, make it impossible to buy anything else (because you still need the other tools) and then pitch that to shareholders as success "Look how many people buy Copilot (even though it's forcefully bundled into every offering we sell("
- lm28469 9mo ago
  These things are never self contained, if the subprime crisis only affected predatory bankers nobody would have cared....
  - imiric 9mo ago
    True, but a better comparison is the dot-com crash. The effects of that were mainly contained to the tech industry and the stock market. People who weren't invested in either barely noticed the crash. This time around the ramifications might be larger, but it will still mostly be felt by those inside the bubble. Personally, I would rather experience a slight discomfort from the crash followed by a normalization of hardware prices and the job market, than continue bearing the current insanity.
    - thewebguyd 9mo ago
      > better comparison is the dot-com crash. The effects of that were mainly contained to the tech industry and the stock market. People who weren't invested in either barely noticed the crash. That's because the companies were largely public. In the dotcom era, the exit for startups was to IPO, as early as possible. When someone like pets.com was burning through cash with zero path to profitability, it was public knowledge, everyone could see it. The AI built out is largely funded with private credit. It's a black box, we have no idea of true valuations. The mean time for a company to go public went from 4 years during dotcom to 14 years now. The rot can be hidden for a long time until the big funds go bust, with all the collateral damage that brings.
Bender 9mo ago
Stock up on dry beans and rice. Good advice regardless of what happens. Freeze dried food also great if one can afford it. Bubbles bursting aside, emergencies happen. Water treated for long term storage is also important to prepare the beans and rice. Also portable portable bunsen burner with many gas cartridges.
bossyTeacher 9mo ago
All the big tech companies have been taking credit to fund the AI craze. This is not even looking at the hottest stock in town: Nvidia. What is going to happen to the stock of all these big tech companies (see Google, Amazon, etc)? What is going to happen to the tech world that lies in the periphery but depends on services provided by these companies? What is going to happen all the devs that are currently working in the AI industry once it recedes to like 25% of its current size? Can the non-AI tech job market absorb all the soon to be laid off employees? These are the questions in my mind when it comes to transformer tech.
- thewebguyd 9mo ago
  > What is going to happen to the tech world that lies in the periphery but depends on services provided by these companies? Not just the tech world. Think of all the businesses below "huge enterprise" that rely on SaaS for most of their tech stack, many don't even have internal dev teams. Maybe a lot of them bought contracts with any number of "AI SaaS" tools to run their businesses. When all those go under, all these companies have major disruptions and have to scramble to find replacements, get their data out if they even can, etc. It's going to be very messy. Not to mention the trillions of dollars of unregulated, non-bank lending that's funding all of this build out. It's a black box, there's no visibility into true valuation and because the credit isn't public, the rot can be hidden for years until its too big to fix and finally snaps, taking the rest of the economy out with it.

by xvxvx 9mo ago

imiric 9mo ago

Why the doom and gloom? It's going to hurt those who jumped on the bandwagon hoping to cash out. I couldn't care less about them, but I would like for computer hardware to be affordable again, and for the tech job market to go back to normal. Though I'm more concerned about the effects of the current political climate, than the "AI" bubble popping. In the scenario of that going south, nothing will be normal for a long time.

lp0_on_fire 9mo ago
The C-levels who jumped on the bandwagon are definitely not going to fall on their swords should it go south. They’ll blame the tech, fire some subordinates, suggest their customers for “not understanding it”, and their shareholders will eat it up as long as they get a pound of flesh.
- hackable_sand 9mo ago
  They can't really stop swords falling on them though...
  - lp0_on_fire 9mo ago
    They’ll just move on to the next company that will hire them with a golden parachute. There’s minimal risk to the decision makers. Meanwhile, every one of us peons is significantly more at risk of losing our jobs whether we could be effectively replaced with these AI tools or not because our own C-level execs decided to drink the snake oil that is the current bubble.
    - hackable_sand 9mo ago
      Everyone is a decision maker. Don't let your perceived lack of impact discourage you. For instance, I help my community by feeding them. It's small, but powerful.
- thewebguyd 9mo ago
  > suggest their customers for “not understanding it” See Microsoft's recent "We don't understand how you all are not impressed by AI." In the case of MS, you're right, Satya isn't going to fall on his own sword. They will just continue to bundle and raise prices, make it impossible to buy anything else (because you still need the other tools) and then pitch that to shareholders as success "Look how many people buy Copilot (even though it's forcefully bundled into every offering we sell("
lm28469 9mo ago
These things are never self contained, if the subprime crisis only affected predatory bankers nobody would have cared....
- imiric 9mo ago
  True, but a better comparison is the dot-com crash. The effects of that were mainly contained to the tech industry and the stock market. People who weren't invested in either barely noticed the crash. This time around the ramifications might be larger, but it will still mostly be felt by those inside the bubble. Personally, I would rather experience a slight discomfort from the crash followed by a normalization of hardware prices and the job market, than continue bearing the current insanity.
  - thewebguyd 9mo ago
    > better comparison is the dot-com crash. The effects of that were mainly contained to the tech industry and the stock market. People who weren't invested in either barely noticed the crash. That's because the companies were largely public. In the dotcom era, the exit for startups was to IPO, as early as possible. When someone like pets.com was burning through cash with zero path to profitability, it was public knowledge, everyone could see it. The AI built out is largely funded with private credit. It's a black box, we have no idea of true valuations. The mean time for a company to go public went from 4 years during dotcom to 14 years now. The rot can be hidden for a long time until the big funds go bust, with all the collateral damage that brings.

Bender 9mo ago

Stock up on dry beans and rice. Good advice regardless of what happens. Freeze dried food also great if one can afford it. Bubbles bursting aside, emergencies happen. Water treated for long term storage is also important to prepare the beans and rice. Also portable portable bunsen burner with many gas cartridges.

bossyTeacher 9mo ago

All the big tech companies have been taking credit to fund the AI craze. This is not even looking at the hottest stock in town: Nvidia. What is going to happen to the stock of all these big tech companies (see Google, Amazon, etc)? What is going to happen to the tech world that lies in the periphery but depends on services provided by these companies? What is going to happen all the devs that are currently working in the AI industry once it recedes to like 25% of its current size? Can the non-AI tech job market absorb all the soon to be laid off employees? These are the questions in my mind when it comes to transformer tech.

thewebguyd 9mo ago
> What is going to happen to the tech world that lies in the periphery but depends on services provided by these companies? Not just the tech world. Think of all the businesses below "huge enterprise" that rely on SaaS for most of their tech stack, many don't even have internal dev teams. Maybe a lot of them bought contracts with any number of "AI SaaS" tools to run their businesses. When all those go under, all these companies have major disruptions and have to scramble to find replacements, get their data out if they even can, etc. It's going to be very messy. Not to mention the trillions of dollars of unregulated, non-bank lending that's funding all of this build out. It's a black box, there's no visibility into true valuation and because the credit isn't public, the rot can be hidden for years until its too big to fix and finally snaps, taking the rest of the economy out with it.