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The most important thing to understand is where the value of the US dollar comes from. It's the US military. More generally speaking, it's US foreign policy. Th
by jmyeet 10mo ago
The most important thing to understand is where the value of the US dollar comes from. It's the US military. More generally speaking, it's US foreign policy. The US military is the force that enables foreign policy.
Understand this and you'll avoid falling into various traps and conspiracy theories. For example, there are people who believe that the US invasion of Iraq was caused by Iraq wanting to sell oil in euros instead of dollars.
This is a nonsen theory because every oil transaction could be denominated in euros tomorrow and it wouldn't change anything. The same demand for US dollars would still exist so people would simply convert to euros, buy oil then convert back.
This same understanding debunks the "threat" of a BRICS alliance.
The real problem, if you can call it that, is we have an administration who is both incredibly inept AND intent on destroying the post-WW2 world order. Wealth inequality is getting so bad and the deficit is so bad. Worse, nobody expects either to improve anytime soon. I'm not saying the budget needs to be in balance. It doesn't. A country doesn't work like a business when you can print your own money. But at some point, crippling public debt (in terms of GDP) will devalue the dollar.
Put another way: the illusion of "safety" is at risk. It's just a question of when the vibes shift.
- mythical_39 10mo agoYour first paragraph is close to correct, but have you thought of the difference between supportive vs coercive power? If the Russian army is the force that enables Russian foreign policy, they why do some people in Ukraine think that they don't want to do things the Russian way? Likewise, I wonder how helpful the US military will be at forcing our former allies to do things they don't want to do?
- jmyeet 10mo agoIt's a fair question but the answer is fairly simple: the Russian military simply isn't strong. The only reason they haven't been bombed back into the Stone Age is because they have a nuclear arsenal. That has limited the West's response to being "proportionate". The Russian-Ukraine front is kinda like WW1. There's no real air power to speak of. The front is dominated by artillery and infantry and fortifications like trenches. Russia cannot project military power anywhere like how the US can and the US has decades of projecting that power to force countries to capitulate, essentially. Europe outsourced their security to the US, for example. But make no mistake: NATO is a protection racket. It projects American power into Europe. This is one reason why I call this administration inept because they seem intent on splintering NATO, which actually diminishes American power. Just like disbanding USAID diminished American soft power, and quite cheaply at that. The lesson since at least the (W) Bush administration is that only nuclear weapons can guarantee your survival.