4 ms·

You do realise it is arthimetically impossible to balance all the desired export surpluses of the EU, China, Japan, etc together without the US as the demand si

You do realise it is arthimetically impossible to balance all the desired export surpluses of the EU, China, Japan, etc together without the US as the demand sink right? Whatever adjustment comes is certainly going to require somebody to act in a manner contrary to their current strategies, and it's going to be a painful adjustment. And which is harder? Bringing back production to satiate domestic demand or increasing domestic demand? Historically, demand deficiency is much harder to restore.

monero-xmr 9mo ago
Single most accurate and astute comment on the entire page. Not everyone can be a net exporter, of course…
- epistasis 9mo ago
  Think one step further. When a different currency becomes the reserve currency, the currency rises in value, the holders become far wealthier, get their imports for cheaper, and suddenly they can even subsidize their local industries that rely on exports to the point that it's a smooth transition to more of a consumer economy.
  - monero-xmr 9mo ago
    [flagged]
    - epistasis 9mo ago
      > no armies, can’t defend itself, can’t make energy. Look I love dumping on the Europoors as much as anyone, but even I can see that this is a bit extreme. "Decadence?" What does that even mean here? That people are happy and secure and have good qualities of life, without worrying about everything falling apart? The US is not fine, and is falling apart. The US is living decadently on its reserve currency status, which enable things like ridiculously wasteful and unproductive military spending. Even its military spending on things like the, say, F35, require external customers in order for it to make any sense at all. But all that decadence is at risk. Decadence is good, I want it, I don't want austerity. Give me this awesome US decadence or I'll have to settle for the fake European "decadence" which is mere economic and health security without all the extra spending that US consumers get to make.
      - monero-xmr 9mo ago
        [flagged]
        epistasis 9mo ago
        > The goal of Europeans is not to work. What, would you say, all these entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley are doing here? They are all trying to invent something so that they don't have to work anymore. > They will continue to sell their crown jewels to the highest bidder, because no one wants to work. Is this about Europe or the US?
        monero-xmr 9mo ago
        [flagged]
        epistasis 9mo ago
        That idea has been so destroyed by current events that I can only imagine that you are trolling or have been living in a cave for a few weeks. Check the news!
        monero-xmr 9mo ago
        [flagged]
        JumpCrisscross 9mo ago
        > idea has been so destroyed by current events To be fair, has it? The EU is talking about activating its anti-coercion thing, which would anyway only kick off a year-long consultation and voting process before anything happened. To my knowledge, there have been no consequences to America annexing Greenland put forward that would hit before the midterms.
        monero-xmr 9mo ago
        I feel like no one has read anything I have said but you
  - x-complexity 9mo ago
    > subsidize their local industries that rely on exports to the point that it's a smooth transition to more of a consumer economy. There's an implication here that the country *wants* to become a consumer economy, and not remain an export economy. Furthermore, it relies on the leadership wanting to wind down that production, and not use that subsidy to further bolster their industrial capacity & crush global prices, in an attempt to wash out the others & only have their country be the sole remaining place capable of meeting demand at that subsidized point.
    - epistasis 9mo ago
      Why would a country want to remain a manufactured-good export economy, rather than having the stronger position of a consumer economy that lives off the wealth of the rest of the world? Why grind away relentlessly in industries with tiny profit margins, when there are high-margin innovation-driven industries that your economy can advance to? Why stick with producing clothing, when you can move on to cars? Why stick with cars, when you can move on to chips? Why stay with chips, when you can move on to the next new technology that the entire world wants, but which only your economy can produce because it grew the industry from scratch and everybody is playing catch up? Dictators love autarky because it gives them complete control of the population. Populations should not love autarky, because it makes them poor and robs them of wealth and opportunity.
      - x-complexity 9mo ago
        > Why would a country want to remain a manufactured-good export economy, rather than having the stronger position of a consumer economy that lives off the wealth of the rest of the world? 1) A consumer economy is not required to extract wealth from other countries. 2) A consumer economy is metastable by design: (2a) It inherently requires the buy-in of other nations to want to export to you in the first place, which is not guaranteed. (2b) The wealth of the consumer economy is primarily derived from salesmanship and not the product itself, which is also metastable. 3) Knowledge work is not barred to an export economy, and can similarly be performed there without having to become a consumer economy. > Why grind away relentlessly in industries with tiny profit margins, when there are high-margin innovation-driven industries that your economy can advance to? (Previous point (3) similarly applies here) > Why stick with producing clothing, when you can move on to cars? Why stick with cars, when you can move on to chips? Why stay with chips, when you can move on to the next new technology that the entire world wants, but which only your economy can produce because it grew the industry from scratch and everybody is playing catch up? 1) None of these decisions are mutually exclusive. Why throw away the $10 you picked up just because you saw $100? 2) Establishment of a new industry is not assured. Failure can still occur, even when billions are thrown. (see Abu Dhabi & GlobalFoundries semiconductor fab venture) 2b) Not very new industrial move needs to be made. Tech leapfrogging can occur at a later date. 3) The demand for those """lower end""" products do not evaporate. Unless a sensible smartphone-like revolution comes for clothing / cars (i.e. The unification of multiple former products under a new product), the industry's products & demand will rarely change. The tastes will shift, but the fundamentals of the product & the industry will remain. 4-IMPORTANT) Margins are not obligated to trend towards zero, and can in fact increase as more people make the same mental conclusions as described and abandon their own industries, eventually leading to an oligopoly / monopoly scenario that is harder to retake back. > Dictators love autarky because it gives them complete control of the population. Populations should not love autarky, because it makes them poor and robs them of wealth and opportunity. Wealth does not inherently manifest from (the ether / nothing), and neither does opportunity. Even in the EU, wealth is derived from the decisions of the State to create / retain wealth.
epistasis 9mo ago
That furthers the imbalance to the detriment of the US and in favor of the holders of whichever currency replaces USD. Dedollarization means that the US market is far poorer and can't import as much as before, yet the new reserve currency(ies) make holders that much richer, enabling greater demand for either imports or self-consumption. It will be an adjustment, but there will be many winners, none of which are the US. There may be some losers who do not negotiate trade deals or can't find new markets, but it's unlikely. The supposed US trade war on China has resulted in their GDP growing by a massive 5% last year. Canada, losing its exports to the US, negotiates deals with other countries. The pain for other countries is more organizational than anything economic. The US will face massive economic disaster in the form of devalued dollars and the need to close the government deficit after decades of being addicted to massive reserve-currency-enabled deficit spending. The US will be plummeted into massive recession by those sudden changes, while the rest of the world merely trades with whoever are the winners. If, for example, China decides that it finally wants a consumer economy, and the Renminbi becomes a partial reserve currency, the consumer demand will be absolutely massive. Europe may have a harder time signaling to Europeans that they are far wealthier, but make imports cheaper for Europeans, and people who find that they suddenly have a lot more left in their bank account at the end of the month usually find ways to spend at least part of it.
- GenerWork 9mo ago
  >The supposed US trade war on China has resulted in their GDP growing by a massive 5% last year. I'd take those numbers with a grain of salt. China is known to play with the numbers to hit goals when they feel that they need to. >The US will be plummeted into massive recession by those sudden changes, while the rest of the world merely trades with whoever are the winners. The massive devaluation in the dollar would mean that the country would become incredibly attractive for manufacturing exports, which would prevent a massive recession. >If, for example, China decides that it finally wants a consumer economy, and the Renminbi becomes a partial reserve currency, the consumer demand will be absolutely massive. If you think that China is going to shut down the majority of its factories, move them to other countries, and let their currency float freely (well, freer than it is today), you're delusional.
throwaway290 9mo ago
> balance all the desired export surpluses of the EU, China, Japan, etc together without the US as the demand sink in 2022 China, Russia exported around 630 billion USD, US imported around 950 billion USD. maybe the world will not end if these three just go and play in a separate sandbox;) > it's going to be a painful adjustment. even if demand falls a bit it's not the end of the world if it becomes more sustainable afterwards (less overproduction, consumer waste, gassing the environment)

monero-xmr 9mo ago

Single most accurate and astute comment on the entire page. Not everyone can be a net exporter, of course…

epistasis 9mo ago
Think one step further. When a different currency becomes the reserve currency, the currency rises in value, the holders become far wealthier, get their imports for cheaper, and suddenly they can even subsidize their local industries that rely on exports to the point that it's a smooth transition to more of a consumer economy.
- monero-xmr 9mo ago
  [flagged]
  - epistasis 9mo ago
    > no armies, can’t defend itself, can’t make energy. Look I love dumping on the Europoors as much as anyone, but even I can see that this is a bit extreme. "Decadence?" What does that even mean here? That people are happy and secure and have good qualities of life, without worrying about everything falling apart? The US is not fine, and is falling apart. The US is living decadently on its reserve currency status, which enable things like ridiculously wasteful and unproductive military spending. Even its military spending on things like the, say, F35, require external customers in order for it to make any sense at all. But all that decadence is at risk. Decadence is good, I want it, I don't want austerity. Give me this awesome US decadence or I'll have to settle for the fake European "decadence" which is mere economic and health security without all the extra spending that US consumers get to make.
    - monero-xmr 9mo ago
      [flagged]
      - epistasis 9mo ago
        > The goal of Europeans is not to work. What, would you say, all these entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley are doing here? They are all trying to invent something so that they don't have to work anymore. > They will continue to sell their crown jewels to the highest bidder, because no one wants to work. Is this about Europe or the US?
        monero-xmr 9mo ago
        [flagged]
        epistasis 9mo ago
        That idea has been so destroyed by current events that I can only imagine that you are trolling or have been living in a cave for a few weeks. Check the news!
        monero-xmr 9mo ago
        [flagged]
        JumpCrisscross 9mo ago
        > idea has been so destroyed by current events To be fair, has it? The EU is talking about activating its anti-coercion thing, which would anyway only kick off a year-long consultation and voting process before anything happened. To my knowledge, there have been no consequences to America annexing Greenland put forward that would hit before the midterms.
        monero-xmr 9mo ago
        I feel like no one has read anything I have said but you
- x-complexity 9mo ago
  > subsidize their local industries that rely on exports to the point that it's a smooth transition to more of a consumer economy. There's an implication here that the country *wants* to become a consumer economy, and not remain an export economy. Furthermore, it relies on the leadership wanting to wind down that production, and not use that subsidy to further bolster their industrial capacity & crush global prices, in an attempt to wash out the others & only have their country be the sole remaining place capable of meeting demand at that subsidized point.
  - epistasis 9mo ago
    Why would a country want to remain a manufactured-good export economy, rather than having the stronger position of a consumer economy that lives off the wealth of the rest of the world? Why grind away relentlessly in industries with tiny profit margins, when there are high-margin innovation-driven industries that your economy can advance to? Why stick with producing clothing, when you can move on to cars? Why stick with cars, when you can move on to chips? Why stay with chips, when you can move on to the next new technology that the entire world wants, but which only your economy can produce because it grew the industry from scratch and everybody is playing catch up? Dictators love autarky because it gives them complete control of the population. Populations should not love autarky, because it makes them poor and robs them of wealth and opportunity.
    - x-complexity 9mo ago
      > Why would a country want to remain a manufactured-good export economy, rather than having the stronger position of a consumer economy that lives off the wealth of the rest of the world? 1) A consumer economy is not required to extract wealth from other countries. 2) A consumer economy is metastable by design: (2a) It inherently requires the buy-in of other nations to want to export to you in the first place, which is not guaranteed. (2b) The wealth of the consumer economy is primarily derived from salesmanship and not the product itself, which is also metastable. 3) Knowledge work is not barred to an export economy, and can similarly be performed there without having to become a consumer economy. > Why grind away relentlessly in industries with tiny profit margins, when there are high-margin innovation-driven industries that your economy can advance to? (Previous point (3) similarly applies here) > Why stick with producing clothing, when you can move on to cars? Why stick with cars, when you can move on to chips? Why stay with chips, when you can move on to the next new technology that the entire world wants, but which only your economy can produce because it grew the industry from scratch and everybody is playing catch up? 1) None of these decisions are mutually exclusive. Why throw away the $10 you picked up just because you saw $100? 2) Establishment of a new industry is not assured. Failure can still occur, even when billions are thrown. (see Abu Dhabi & GlobalFoundries semiconductor fab venture) 2b) Not very new industrial move needs to be made. Tech leapfrogging can occur at a later date. 3) The demand for those """lower end""" products do not evaporate. Unless a sensible smartphone-like revolution comes for clothing / cars (i.e. The unification of multiple former products under a new product), the industry's products & demand will rarely change. The tastes will shift, but the fundamentals of the product & the industry will remain. 4-IMPORTANT) Margins are not obligated to trend towards zero, and can in fact increase as more people make the same mental conclusions as described and abandon their own industries, eventually leading to an oligopoly / monopoly scenario that is harder to retake back. > Dictators love autarky because it gives them complete control of the population. Populations should not love autarky, because it makes them poor and robs them of wealth and opportunity. Wealth does not inherently manifest from (the ether / nothing), and neither does opportunity. Even in the EU, wealth is derived from the decisions of the State to create / retain wealth.

epistasis 9mo ago

That furthers the imbalance to the detriment of the US and in favor of the holders of whichever currency replaces USD. Dedollarization means that the US market is far poorer and can't import as much as before, yet the new reserve currency(ies) make holders that much richer, enabling greater demand for either imports or self-consumption. It will be an adjustment, but there will be many winners, none of which are the US. There may be some losers who do not negotiate trade deals or can't find new markets, but it's unlikely. The supposed US trade war on China has resulted in their GDP growing by a massive 5% last year. Canada, losing its exports to the US, negotiates deals with other countries. The pain for other countries is more organizational than anything economic. The US will face massive economic disaster in the form of devalued dollars and the need to close the government deficit after decades of being addicted to massive reserve-currency-enabled deficit spending. The US will be plummeted into massive recession by those sudden changes, while the rest of the world merely trades with whoever are the winners. If, for example, China decides that it finally wants a consumer economy, and the Renminbi becomes a partial reserve currency, the consumer demand will be absolutely massive. Europe may have a harder time signaling to Europeans that they are far wealthier, but make imports cheaper for Europeans, and people who find that they suddenly have a lot more left in their bank account at the end of the month usually find ways to spend at least part of it.

GenerWork 9mo ago
>The supposed US trade war on China has resulted in their GDP growing by a massive 5% last year. I'd take those numbers with a grain of salt. China is known to play with the numbers to hit goals when they feel that they need to. >The US will be plummeted into massive recession by those sudden changes, while the rest of the world merely trades with whoever are the winners. The massive devaluation in the dollar would mean that the country would become incredibly attractive for manufacturing exports, which would prevent a massive recession. >If, for example, China decides that it finally wants a consumer economy, and the Renminbi becomes a partial reserve currency, the consumer demand will be absolutely massive. If you think that China is going to shut down the majority of its factories, move them to other countries, and let their currency float freely (well, freer than it is today), you're delusional.

throwaway290 9mo ago

> balance all the desired export surpluses of the EU, China, Japan, etc together without the US as the demand sink in 2022 China, Russia exported around 630 billion USD, US imported around 950 billion USD. maybe the world will not end if these three just go and play in a separate sandbox;) > it's going to be a painful adjustment. even if demand falls a bit it's not the end of the world if it becomes more sustainable afterwards (less overproduction, consumer waste, gassing the environment)