3 ms·

> I’m curious specifically about the people envisioning (with barely disguised glee) the US erupting into a civil war within 5 years, as they seem somewhat to h

> I’m curious specifically about the people envisioning (with barely disguised glee) the US erupting into a civil war within 5 years, as they seem somewhat to have lost touch with reality. The MN governor has called up their National Guard to help local law enforcement. The Pentagon is readying troops as well, presumably to help federal officials (ICE). If both sides think they are following lawful orders, and neither side will give, what do you think will happen? (I have no answers.) Further, there are folks that want a conflict because the West has become too decadent or something, and some conflict is needed to toughen up (?): * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerationism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerationism * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_Enlightenment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_Enlightenment

toomuchtodo 9mo ago
To note, I believe it's possible the ~1500 troops staging to Minnesota are not to assist with ICE operations, but to be air lifted via the 133rd Airlift Wing to Greenland. If interested in pursuing this, task some commercial satellite imaging. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/133rd_Airlift_Wing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/133rd_Airlift_Wing
- throw0101a 9mo ago
  "Pentagon readies 1,500 troops for potential Minnesota deployment, officials say": * https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/18/pentagon-alaska-troops-minnesota-deployment https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/18/pentagon-ala...
  - toomuchtodo 9mo ago
    What they say cannot be trusted, based on all available evidence, so you must infer the truth from actions.
- throw0101c 9mo ago
  The troops that are being readied are actually the 11th Airborne Division: * https://time.com/7347191/minnesota-army-troops-standby/ https://time.com/7347191/minnesota-army-troops-standby/ whose deputy commander is a Canadian, as a part of an exchange program: * https://11thairbornedivision.army.mil/dcgo/ https://11thairbornedivision.army.mil/dcgo/ so I'm not sure how sending him to Greenland is going to work.
  - dragonwriter 9mo ago
    If Trump decides to go pull the plug on invading Greenland an uses the 11th Airborne, McBride would, I would assume, at a minimum, be relieved of his duties with the 11th Airborne and sent back to Canada, with either a subordinate ops staff officer or the Deputy Commanding General (Support) or some combination filling in for the duties of the Deputy Commanding General (Operations). Depending on the details of timing of the operation and the US-Canada diplomatic situation as a result, what happens after he is relieved might not be as simple as a return to Canada, he might conceivably even end up as a POW.
whimsicalism 9mo ago
Federal supremacy will win, the MN governor will not tell local LE directly to prevent federal agents enforcing federal law. I understand that law is not popular among many right now, but that is how it will play out. There will not be civil war unless the military truly comes to assist in a Trump attempt to take power in 2028, which I think is very unlikely.
- toomuchtodo 9mo ago
  The US military spent $4T-$6T in Iraq and Afghanistan, losing ~7k soldiers and ~52k wounded [1]. The US has one of the highest per capita of gun ownership and less than a million soldiers on US soil [2] [3]. Federal supremacy is based on the concept of the US military winning a conflict when they haven't won one since WW2. Force projection via military hardware and popping into Venezuela to extract its leader is a far different proposition than urban combat where your home and family is on the same soil. I very much hope civil war is unlikely, but the federal government is vastly undermanned if a conflict occurs on US soil. (have four siblings who have decades in combined military tours across all service branches except the coast guard, and I leverage them as a resource collectively in these matters) [1] https://www.fcnl.org/updates/2016-10/costs-war-numbers https://www.fcnl.org/updates/2016-10/costs-war-numbers [2] https://usafacts.org/answers/how-many-troops-are-in-the-us-military/country/united-states/ https://usafacts.org/answers/how-many-troops-are-in-the-us-m... [3] https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-people-are-in-the-us-military-a-demographic-overview/ https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-people-are-in-the-us-...
  - GJim 9mo ago
    > The US military spent $4T-$6T in Iraq and Afghanistan, losing ~7k soldiers and ~52k wounded Denmark and the UK (to mention just two countries) also lost men fighting alongside America in Iraq and Afghanistan. Look how they are being repaid. Here is a rather sobering video from a British perspective: The Prime Minister responding to JD Vance by simply reading out in Parliament, the names of British soldiers who died supporting American operations. https://uk.news.yahoo.com/pm-honours-uk-troops-killed-123537412.html https://uk.news.yahoo.com/pm-honours-uk-troops-killed-123537...

toomuchtodo 9mo ago

To note, I believe it's possible the ~1500 troops staging to Minnesota are not to assist with ICE operations, but to be air lifted via the 133rd Airlift Wing to Greenland. If interested in pursuing this, task some commercial satellite imaging. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/133rd_Airlift_Wing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/133rd_Airlift_Wing

throw0101a 9mo ago
"Pentagon readies 1,500 troops for potential Minnesota deployment, officials say": * https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/18/pentagon-alaska-troops-minnesota-deployment https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/18/pentagon-ala...
- toomuchtodo 9mo ago
  What they say cannot be trusted, based on all available evidence, so you must infer the truth from actions.
throw0101c 9mo ago
The troops that are being readied are actually the 11th Airborne Division: * https://time.com/7347191/minnesota-army-troops-standby/ https://time.com/7347191/minnesota-army-troops-standby/ whose deputy commander is a Canadian, as a part of an exchange program: * https://11thairbornedivision.army.mil/dcgo/ https://11thairbornedivision.army.mil/dcgo/ so I'm not sure how sending him to Greenland is going to work.
- dragonwriter 9mo ago
  If Trump decides to go pull the plug on invading Greenland an uses the 11th Airborne, McBride would, I would assume, at a minimum, be relieved of his duties with the 11th Airborne and sent back to Canada, with either a subordinate ops staff officer or the Deputy Commanding General (Support) or some combination filling in for the duties of the Deputy Commanding General (Operations). Depending on the details of timing of the operation and the US-Canada diplomatic situation as a result, what happens after he is relieved might not be as simple as a return to Canada, he might conceivably even end up as a POW.

whimsicalism 9mo ago

Federal supremacy will win, the MN governor will not tell local LE directly to prevent federal agents enforcing federal law. I understand that law is not popular among many right now, but that is how it will play out. There will not be civil war unless the military truly comes to assist in a Trump attempt to take power in 2028, which I think is very unlikely.

toomuchtodo 9mo ago
The US military spent $4T-$6T in Iraq and Afghanistan, losing ~7k soldiers and ~52k wounded [1]. The US has one of the highest per capita of gun ownership and less than a million soldiers on US soil [2] [3]. Federal supremacy is based on the concept of the US military winning a conflict when they haven't won one since WW2. Force projection via military hardware and popping into Venezuela to extract its leader is a far different proposition than urban combat where your home and family is on the same soil. I very much hope civil war is unlikely, but the federal government is vastly undermanned if a conflict occurs on US soil. (have four siblings who have decades in combined military tours across all service branches except the coast guard, and I leverage them as a resource collectively in these matters) [1] https://www.fcnl.org/updates/2016-10/costs-war-numbers https://www.fcnl.org/updates/2016-10/costs-war-numbers [2] https://usafacts.org/answers/how-many-troops-are-in-the-us-military/country/united-states/ https://usafacts.org/answers/how-many-troops-are-in-the-us-m... [3] https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-people-are-in-the-us-military-a-demographic-overview/ https://usafacts.org/articles/how-many-people-are-in-the-us-...
- GJim 9mo ago
  > The US military spent $4T-$6T in Iraq and Afghanistan, losing ~7k soldiers and ~52k wounded Denmark and the UK (to mention just two countries) also lost men fighting alongside America in Iraq and Afghanistan. Look how they are being repaid. Here is a rather sobering video from a British perspective: The Prime Minister responding to JD Vance by simply reading out in Parliament, the names of British soldiers who died supporting American operations. https://uk.news.yahoo.com/pm-honours-uk-troops-killed-123537412.html https://uk.news.yahoo.com/pm-honours-uk-troops-killed-123537...