5 ms·

I don’t disagree that our fiscal situation is unsustainable. I’m curious specifically about the people envisioning (with barely disguised glee) the US erupting

I don’t disagree that our fiscal situation is unsustainable. I’m curious specifically about the people envisioning (with barely disguised glee) the US erupting into a civil war within 5 years, as they seem somewhat to have lost touch with reality.

toomuchtodo 9mo ago
In longitudinal surveys, typically, about 5% of folks elect the "some men want to watch the world burn" option. I cannot speak to the glee component you mention, I know these people exist, but they are a minority. I can speak to the ongoing political polarization that treats national politics as a sport and is avoiding course correcting fiscal policy trajectory. And this fiscal policy is going to lead to widening wealth inequality, a continuation of a K shaped economic recovery, and pushing the electorate to more extreme options besides the voting booth. No one is "winning", there is no moderate middle ground any more, and I don't see how this trajectory will change. Thanks Gingrich (who set us on this path decades ago)! Nearly 40% of Young Americans Say Political Violence Is Acceptable in Certain Circumstances, Harvard Poll Finds - https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2025/12/4/hpop-poll-political-violence/ https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2025/12/4/hpop-poll-polit... - December 4th, 2025 Americans say politically motivated violence is increasing, and they see many reasons why - https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/10/23/americans-say-politically-motivated-violence-is-increasing-and-they-see-many-reasons-why/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/10/23/americans... - October 23rd, 2025
antonvs 9mo ago
What could easily happen much sooner than 5 years is an incident that gives Trump an excuse to invoke the Insurrection Act, and send federal troops - not just National Guard - into blue US cities. Things could go a lot of different ways after that, but something resembling civil war - or a smaller-scale guerilla war - is very much in the realm of possibility. Be wary of normalcy bias, it's a big part of what lets the Trump admin get away with what its doing. People think "oh that can't happen"... until it does.
throw0101a 9mo ago
> I’m curious specifically about the people envisioning (with barely disguised glee) the US erupting into a civil war within 5 years, as they seem somewhat to have lost touch with reality. The MN governor has called up their National Guard to help local law enforcement. The Pentagon is readying troops as well, presumably to help federal officials (ICE). If both sides think they are following lawful orders, and neither side will give, what do you think will happen? (I have no answers.) Further, there are folks that want a conflict because the West has become too decadent or something, and some conflict is needed to toughen up (?): * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerationism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerationism * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_Enlightenment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_Enlightenment
- toomuchtodo 9mo ago
  To note, I believe it's possible the ~1500 troops staging to Minnesota are not to assist with ICE operations, but to be air lifted via the 133rd Airlift Wing to Greenland. If interested in pursuing this, task some commercial satellite imaging. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/133rd_Airlift_Wing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/133rd_Airlift_Wing
  - throw0101a 9mo ago
    "Pentagon readies 1,500 troops for potential Minnesota deployment, officials say": * https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/18/pentagon-alaska-troops-minnesota-deployment https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/18/pentagon-ala...
    - toomuchtodo 9mo ago
      What they say cannot be trusted, based on all available evidence, so you must infer the truth from actions.
  - throw0101c 9mo ago
    The troops that are being readied are actually the 11th Airborne Division: * https://time.com/7347191/minnesota-army-troops-standby/ https://time.com/7347191/minnesota-army-troops-standby/ whose deputy commander is a Canadian, as a part of an exchange program: * https://11thairbornedivision.army.mil/dcgo/ https://11thairbornedivision.army.mil/dcgo/ so I'm not sure how sending him to Greenland is going to work.
JumpinJack_Cash 9mo ago
> > the US erupting into a civil war within 5 years, as they seem somewhat to have lost touch with reality. When your material needs are satisfied then only ideological battles remain to be won. And having lots of material stuff you have plenty to throw at the enemy. It's already happening. People are willing to forego their material needs and harm the country and themselves to 'own' and defeat the other side. The only hope is that the ideological wars become so scattered and around so many topics and centers of power that it's not 70m people vs. 70m people or that the ideological wars are slow that people realize that they come with a loss of quality of life and material wealth and rebalance towards the latter instead of pursuing the 'owning the other side' doctrine
- whimsicalism 9mo ago
  I think effectively all empirics go against this notion, the only real counterexample I can think of is the Troubles. People living comfortable lives don't want to die and the ideology usually routes around that: look how morality has been evolving wrt the notion of 'sacrifice for the common good' - and we expect people will sacrifice their lives for their perception of the common good? doubt it
  - JumpinJack_Cash 9mo ago
    > > People living comfortable lives don't want to die Trump is the prime example , why did he decide to abandon the lifestyle afforded by his 500 million dollar net worth to pursue a job where 27% of his predecessors where shot at? Abandoning comfortable life to risk death. Why don't rich celebrities quit after the first death threat letter, when they already have a huge bag of money? The material wealth at the extremes is a recipe for unstable and unpredictable behavior , not for calm and collected behavior. People engage in ego battles and fall in love with their ideas and are willing to go to war for them as in a world of abundance they are the only thing that matters in order to 'win'. The most abstract things (interest rates ring a bell) become personal because ideas about them were conceived in self reflection during the infinite hours of thinking and wondering free time afforded by material abundance, killing off ideas becomes akin to killing part of self and becomes unacceptable to the ego. This Is true for individuals and countries alike. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_sink https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_sink

toomuchtodo 9mo ago

In longitudinal surveys, typically, about 5% of folks elect the "some men want to watch the world burn" option. I cannot speak to the glee component you mention, I know these people exist, but they are a minority. I can speak to the ongoing political polarization that treats national politics as a sport and is avoiding course correcting fiscal policy trajectory. And this fiscal policy is going to lead to widening wealth inequality, a continuation of a K shaped economic recovery, and pushing the electorate to more extreme options besides the voting booth. No one is "winning", there is no moderate middle ground any more, and I don't see how this trajectory will change. Thanks Gingrich (who set us on this path decades ago)! Nearly 40% of Young Americans Say Political Violence Is Acceptable in Certain Circumstances, Harvard Poll Finds - https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2025/12/4/hpop-poll-political-violence/ https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2025/12/4/hpop-poll-polit... - December 4th, 2025 Americans say politically motivated violence is increasing, and they see many reasons why - https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/10/23/americans-say-politically-motivated-violence-is-increasing-and-they-see-many-reasons-why/ https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/10/23/americans... - October 23rd, 2025

antonvs 9mo ago

What could easily happen much sooner than 5 years is an incident that gives Trump an excuse to invoke the Insurrection Act, and send federal troops - not just National Guard - into blue US cities. Things could go a lot of different ways after that, but something resembling civil war - or a smaller-scale guerilla war - is very much in the realm of possibility. Be wary of normalcy bias, it's a big part of what lets the Trump admin get away with what its doing. People think "oh that can't happen"... until it does.

throw0101a 9mo ago

> I’m curious specifically about the people envisioning (with barely disguised glee) the US erupting into a civil war within 5 years, as they seem somewhat to have lost touch with reality. The MN governor has called up their National Guard to help local law enforcement. The Pentagon is readying troops as well, presumably to help federal officials (ICE). If both sides think they are following lawful orders, and neither side will give, what do you think will happen? (I have no answers.) Further, there are folks that want a conflict because the West has become too decadent or something, and some conflict is needed to toughen up (?): * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerationism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerationism * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_Enlightenment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_Enlightenment

toomuchtodo 9mo ago
To note, I believe it's possible the ~1500 troops staging to Minnesota are not to assist with ICE operations, but to be air lifted via the 133rd Airlift Wing to Greenland. If interested in pursuing this, task some commercial satellite imaging. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/133rd_Airlift_Wing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/133rd_Airlift_Wing
- throw0101a 9mo ago
  "Pentagon readies 1,500 troops for potential Minnesota deployment, officials say": * https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/18/pentagon-alaska-troops-minnesota-deployment https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/18/pentagon-ala...
  - toomuchtodo 9mo ago
    What they say cannot be trusted, based on all available evidence, so you must infer the truth from actions.
- throw0101c 9mo ago
  The troops that are being readied are actually the 11th Airborne Division: * https://time.com/7347191/minnesota-army-troops-standby/ https://time.com/7347191/minnesota-army-troops-standby/ whose deputy commander is a Canadian, as a part of an exchange program: * https://11thairbornedivision.army.mil/dcgo/ https://11thairbornedivision.army.mil/dcgo/ so I'm not sure how sending him to Greenland is going to work.

JumpinJack_Cash 9mo ago

> > the US erupting into a civil war within 5 years, as they seem somewhat to have lost touch with reality. When your material needs are satisfied then only ideological battles remain to be won. And having lots of material stuff you have plenty to throw at the enemy. It's already happening. People are willing to forego their material needs and harm the country and themselves to 'own' and defeat the other side. The only hope is that the ideological wars become so scattered and around so many topics and centers of power that it's not 70m people vs. 70m people or that the ideological wars are slow that people realize that they come with a loss of quality of life and material wealth and rebalance towards the latter instead of pursuing the 'owning the other side' doctrine

whimsicalism 9mo ago
I think effectively all empirics go against this notion, the only real counterexample I can think of is the Troubles. People living comfortable lives don't want to die and the ideology usually routes around that: look how morality has been evolving wrt the notion of 'sacrifice for the common good' - and we expect people will sacrifice their lives for their perception of the common good? doubt it
- JumpinJack_Cash 9mo ago
  > > People living comfortable lives don't want to die Trump is the prime example , why did he decide to abandon the lifestyle afforded by his 500 million dollar net worth to pursue a job where 27% of his predecessors where shot at? Abandoning comfortable life to risk death. Why don't rich celebrities quit after the first death threat letter, when they already have a huge bag of money? The material wealth at the extremes is a recipe for unstable and unpredictable behavior , not for calm and collected behavior. People engage in ego battles and fall in love with their ideas and are willing to go to war for them as in a world of abundance they are the only thing that matters in order to 'win'. The most abstract things (interest rates ring a bell) become personal because ideas about them were conceived in self reflection during the infinite hours of thinking and wondering free time afforded by material abundance, killing off ideas becomes akin to killing part of self and becomes unacceptable to the ego. This Is true for individuals and countries alike. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_sink https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_sink