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The EU can't mend ties with China without giving up on Ukraine as China's FM Wang Yi has stated [0] on multiple occasions [1]. Additionally, in the Chinese fore

The EU can't mend ties with China without giving up on Ukraine as China's FM Wang Yi has stated [0] on multiple occasions [1]. Additionally, in the Chinese foreign policy space, the EU is viewed as weak [2], and largely through the lense of the US-China rivalry (which is how the US views the EU as well now). [0] - https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/china-tells-eu-it-cannot-afford-russian-loss-ukraine-war-sources-say https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3316875/ch... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-russia-discuss-ukraine-reach-consensus-japan-during-chinese-ministers-2025-12-03/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-russia-discuss-ukr... [2] - https://fddi.fudan.edu.cn/_t2515/57/f8/c21257a743416/page.htm https://fddi.fudan.edu.cn/_t2515/57/f8/c21257a743416/page.ht...

sekai 10mo ago
> The EU can't mend ties with China without giving up on Ukraine as China's FM Wang Yi has stated [0] At the end of the day China cares more about Europe than Russia. Because that's where the real money is.
- alephnerd 10mo ago
  At the end of the day, their Foreign Minister and their entire foreign policy apparatus has consistently stated they will prioritize Russia over the EU for national security reasons (Central Asia, North Korea, Japan). The EU signing an FTA with India on Jan 27th is also a negative sign for China-EU relations.
  - petesergeant 10mo ago
    Foreign Ministries of all countries are known to speak the unvarnished truth at all time
    - wewxjfq 10mo ago
      Actions speak louder than words and China is supporting Russia.
- coolspot 10mo ago
  > China cares more about Europe than Russia. Because that's where the real money is. “Real money” aka resources are very obviously in Russia, not Europe.
  - xwolfi 10mo ago
    Resources to fuel factories to sell to who ? They don't care about resources if they lose their clients.
    - alephnerd 10mo ago
      EU-China trade only represents around 13% of total trade between China and partners, and is easily substitutable by China by a mix of ASEAN (most of whom have an FTA or GATT FTA with the EU), Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Russia (RU-China trade has a higher dollar value than DE-CN trade, which itself is 2x FR-CN or NL-CN trade), or even India. As long as (eg.) France continues to support Dassault, Safran, and Thales - all of whom continue to support Indian [0][1] and Vietnamese [2][3] military modernization against Chinese aggression, CN-EU ties will never recover [4]. And that's just the tip of the iceberg depending on EU member state. Germany [5][6], Netherlands [6][7], and other individual EU states have similarly crossed Chinese redlines over the past year. The DGSI is also actively prosecuting French nationals with ties to PLA adjacent institutions (public, private, and SoEs) for potential espionage risks [8]. Selon vos relations, vous pourriez également figurer sur cette liste, surtout après ce qui s'est passé en Nouvelle-Calédonie [9]. [0] - https://www.capital.fr/entreprises-marches/rafale-dassault-aviation-en-passe-de-concretiser-une-mega-commande-dune-centaine-dappareils-avec-linde-1522705 https://www.capital.fr/entreprises-marches/rafale-dassault-a... [1] - https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/air-defense/bombes-maintenance-des-moteurs-lenorme-pari-de-safran-en-inde-2201118 https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/air-defense/bombe... [2] - https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/europe-russie/2023/06/27/au-bourget-l-armee-de-l-air-vietnamienne-tate-le-terrain-pour-des-formations-en-cooperation-avec-la-france,109997238-art https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/europe-russie/2023/06/27/a... [3] - https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/asie-pacifique/2025/12/15/hanoi-toujours-plus-dependant-aux-technologies-occidentales-pour-surveiller-la-mer-de-chine-meridionale,110576393-art https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/asie-pacifique/2025/12/15/... [4] - http://www.iis.whu.edu.cn/index.php?id=2986 http://www.iis.whu.edu.cn/index.php?id=2986 [5] - https://taz.de/U-Boot-Deal-geplant/!6144706/ https://taz.de/U-Boot-Deal-geplant/!6144706/ [6] - https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article247750774/Ruestung-Taiwans-neues-U-Boot-der-Hai-Kun-Klasse-veraergert-China.html https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article247750774/Ruestung-Tai... [7] - https://www.nu.nl/economie/6372336/china-is-boos-op-nederland-en-legt-chipbedrijf-nexperia-exportverbod-op.html?referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F https://www.nu.nl/economie/6372336/china-is-boos-op-nederlan... [8] - https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/asie-pacifique/2026/01/14/mise-en-examen-d-un-mathematicien-bordelais-pour-intelligence-avec-la-chine,110600268-art https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/asie-pacifique/2026/01/14/... [9] - https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/asie-pacifique/2025/02/26/les-passeports-du-vanuatu-porte-d-entree-du-renseignement-chinois-en-europe,110378188-eve https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/asie-pacifique/2025/02/26/...
ahartmetz 10mo ago
Then we just need to wait until the Ukraine situation is over in one way or another. China doesn't give a shit about Russia except as a (pathetic) counterweight to the US, I think. I mean they probably care about Russia's natural resources, too, but somebody is going to sell them, including to China, no matter what. It's the biggest thing that Russia has going for it economically (cf. the resource curse).
- alephnerd 10mo ago
  > China doesn't give a shit about Russia except as a (pathetic) counterweight to the US, I think China needs to keep close ties with Russia due to national security interests in Central Asia and North Korea. Additionally, Russia maintains its autonomy by retaining military and economic ties with India and military deployments and listening bases in Vietnam and North Korea, which adds pressure on China to have to collaborate with Russia. > ...counterweight to the US... Chinese foreign policy is almost entirely viewed through the lens of the US-China rivalry. Europeans underestimate this to their peril. And to China, an unaligned Europe is still not pro-China enough.
moogly 10mo ago
Well then us Europeans are fucked regardless I guess. > Beijing did not want to see a Russian loss in Ukraine because it feared the United States would then shift its whole focus to Beijing How does this statement make sense though? I don't see the A -> B. The US pretty clearly does not want to see a Russian loss either, and seems more fine with Ukraine losing. It should depends on how much the US wants Europe? If the US does not want more of Europe, and Russia wins, the US could let Russia take over Europe -> focus shifts to China. If the US wants more of Europe, and Russia wins -> focus would be off China. If the US does not want more of Europe, and Russia loses -> it's mostly whatever, but perhaps focus shifts to China. If the US wants more of Europe, and Russia loses -> focus would be off China. Perhaps I'm just really daft.
- alephnerd 10mo ago
  > How does this statement make sense though? I don't see the A -> B. The US pretty clearly does not want to see a Russian loss either, and seems more fine with Ukraine losing. Despite Trump, the US (and rivals of China like South Korea and Japan) have continued to supply the Ukrainian armed forces and their allies like Poland and Romania. A protracted Russia-Ukraine War with the balance of power in favor of Russia means the US, SK, and JP remain bogged supplying Ukraine and it's allies like Poland and Romania, instead of diverting stock to the Asian front. Additionally, China and Russia are increasingly collaborating to respond against Japan should a conflict occur [0] and North Korea is already an active participant in the Russia-Ukraine War. > It should depends on how much the US wants Europe? The issue is both the US and China view the EU as a regional power that can be pushed around - not as an entity that can retain strategic autonomy. This is the crux of the EU's current diplomatic malaise - neither the US nor China view the EU as an equal, but rather, as a junior partner. > Perhaps I'm just really daft I won't say daft, but the issue is Europeans view themselves as deserving of being on the same table as the Americans and Chinese. Neither the Americans or Chinese see it that way now. In order for the EU to build strategic autonomy, some very painful steps need to be taken which simply aren't being taken (as Draghi pessimistically pointed out a couple months ago) [1]. Additionally, periphery regions of the EU have increasingly started operating independently of the rest of the EU - as with China's CSPs with Spain [2] and Hungary [3]; Israel+India's defense alliances with Greece [4] and Cyprus [5] against Turkiye; and Poland coming out against committing resources to defend Greenland [6] - so a unified EU response is steadily degrading as members decide to take defense matters into their own hands. Basically, if a naval standoff between Greece and Turkiye was to arise in the next 6 months in the Aegean Sea, would the rest of the EU sanction Turkiye (and thus lose a major defense partner in Ukraine [7][8][9] and the Baltics [10]) or ignore Turkiye (and thus destroy the EU and NATO defense commitment). [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-russia-discuss-ukraine-reach-consensus-japan-during-chinese-ministers-2025-12-03/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-russia-discuss-ukr... [1] - https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/business/20250916-mario-draghi-warns-europe-is-falling-further-behind-us-china-due-to-government-complacency https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/business/20250916-mario... [2] - http://en.cppcc.gov.cn/2025-11/13/c_1140641.htm http://en.cppcc.gov.cn/2025-11/13/c_1140641.htm [3] - https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202405/10/content_WS663d3b83c6d0868f4e8e6eb0.html https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202405/10/content_WS663d3b83... [4] - https://geetha.mil.gr/kyklos-synomilion-staff-talks-kai-ypografi-programmatos-stratiotikis-synergasias-pss-2026-ellados-indias/ https://geetha.mil.gr/kyklos-synomilion-staff-talks-kai-ypog... [5] - https://www.bankingnews.gr/amyna-diplomatia/articles/851003/pagkosmio-xaos-i-india-entassetai-sti-symmaxia-elladas-kyprou-israil-gia-na-tsakisei-to-islamiko-nato-tou-erdogan https://www.bankingnews.gr/amyna-diplomatia/articles/851003/... [6] - https://www.reuters.com/world/poland-will-not-send-soldiers-greenland-polish-pm-says-2026-01-15/ https://www.reuters.com/world/poland-will-not-send-soldiers-... [7] - https://ukrainesarmsmonitor.substack.com/p/ukraine-turkiye-strategic-defence https://ukrainesarmsmonitor.substack.com/p/ukraine-turkiye-s... [8] - https://www.cats-network.eu/publication/ukraine-turkey-strategic-partnership-in-security-and-defence https://www.cats-network.eu/publication/ukraine-turkey-strat... [9] - https://www.rnbo.gov.ua/en/Diialnist/3345.html https://www.rnbo.gov.ua/en/Diialnist/3345.html [10] - https://www.turkishminute.com/2026/01/13/nato-asks-turkey-to-deploy-fighter-jets-early-for-baltic-air-patrol-mission-report/ https://www.turkishminute.com/2026/01/13/nato-asks-turkey-to...
atwrk 10mo ago
Wang explicitly said that support for Russia in the war is about diverting the US focus from China. If the US shows it doesn't care about Ukraine's future (and Wang told the truth), then I doubt Chinas support will stay as is for long. At most it will be a bargain in the coming EU-China negotiations.
- alephnerd 10mo ago
  Russia continues to be a significant player in North Korea and Central Asia as well, and this requires Russia-China cooperation. Additionally, if a hot conflit between the US+PH+JP+TW and China happens, China will have to utilize Russian supply and logistics chains to a certain extent (eg. the Chongqing–Xinjiang–Europe railway).

sekai 10mo ago

> The EU can't mend ties with China without giving up on Ukraine as China's FM Wang Yi has stated [0] At the end of the day China cares more about Europe than Russia. Because that's where the real money is.

alephnerd 10mo ago
At the end of the day, their Foreign Minister and their entire foreign policy apparatus has consistently stated they will prioritize Russia over the EU for national security reasons (Central Asia, North Korea, Japan). The EU signing an FTA with India on Jan 27th is also a negative sign for China-EU relations.
- petesergeant 10mo ago
  Foreign Ministries of all countries are known to speak the unvarnished truth at all time
  - wewxjfq 10mo ago
    Actions speak louder than words and China is supporting Russia.
coolspot 10mo ago
> China cares more about Europe than Russia. Because that's where the real money is. “Real money” aka resources are very obviously in Russia, not Europe.
- xwolfi 10mo ago
  Resources to fuel factories to sell to who ? They don't care about resources if they lose their clients.
  - alephnerd 10mo ago
    EU-China trade only represents around 13% of total trade between China and partners, and is easily substitutable by China by a mix of ASEAN (most of whom have an FTA or GATT FTA with the EU), Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Russia (RU-China trade has a higher dollar value than DE-CN trade, which itself is 2x FR-CN or NL-CN trade), or even India. As long as (eg.) France continues to support Dassault, Safran, and Thales - all of whom continue to support Indian [0][1] and Vietnamese [2][3] military modernization against Chinese aggression, CN-EU ties will never recover [4]. And that's just the tip of the iceberg depending on EU member state. Germany [5][6], Netherlands [6][7], and other individual EU states have similarly crossed Chinese redlines over the past year. The DGSI is also actively prosecuting French nationals with ties to PLA adjacent institutions (public, private, and SoEs) for potential espionage risks [8]. Selon vos relations, vous pourriez également figurer sur cette liste, surtout après ce qui s'est passé en Nouvelle-Calédonie [9]. [0] - https://www.capital.fr/entreprises-marches/rafale-dassault-aviation-en-passe-de-concretiser-une-mega-commande-dune-centaine-dappareils-avec-linde-1522705 https://www.capital.fr/entreprises-marches/rafale-dassault-a... [1] - https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/air-defense/bombes-maintenance-des-moteurs-lenorme-pari-de-safran-en-inde-2201118 https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/air-defense/bombe... [2] - https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/europe-russie/2023/06/27/au-bourget-l-armee-de-l-air-vietnamienne-tate-le-terrain-pour-des-formations-en-cooperation-avec-la-france,109997238-art https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/europe-russie/2023/06/27/a... [3] - https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/asie-pacifique/2025/12/15/hanoi-toujours-plus-dependant-aux-technologies-occidentales-pour-surveiller-la-mer-de-chine-meridionale,110576393-art https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/asie-pacifique/2025/12/15/... [4] - http://www.iis.whu.edu.cn/index.php?id=2986 http://www.iis.whu.edu.cn/index.php?id=2986 [5] - https://taz.de/U-Boot-Deal-geplant/!6144706/ https://taz.de/U-Boot-Deal-geplant/!6144706/ [6] - https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article247750774/Ruestung-Taiwans-neues-U-Boot-der-Hai-Kun-Klasse-veraergert-China.html https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article247750774/Ruestung-Tai... [7] - https://www.nu.nl/economie/6372336/china-is-boos-op-nederland-en-legt-chipbedrijf-nexperia-exportverbod-op.html?referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F https://www.nu.nl/economie/6372336/china-is-boos-op-nederlan... [8] - https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/asie-pacifique/2026/01/14/mise-en-examen-d-un-mathematicien-bordelais-pour-intelligence-avec-la-chine,110600268-art https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/asie-pacifique/2026/01/14/... [9] - https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/asie-pacifique/2025/02/26/les-passeports-du-vanuatu-porte-d-entree-du-renseignement-chinois-en-europe,110378188-eve https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/asie-pacifique/2025/02/26/...

ahartmetz 10mo ago

Then we just need to wait until the Ukraine situation is over in one way or another. China doesn't give a shit about Russia except as a (pathetic) counterweight to the US, I think. I mean they probably care about Russia's natural resources, too, but somebody is going to sell them, including to China, no matter what. It's the biggest thing that Russia has going for it economically (cf. the resource curse).

alephnerd 10mo ago
> China doesn't give a shit about Russia except as a (pathetic) counterweight to the US, I think China needs to keep close ties with Russia due to national security interests in Central Asia and North Korea. Additionally, Russia maintains its autonomy by retaining military and economic ties with India and military deployments and listening bases in Vietnam and North Korea, which adds pressure on China to have to collaborate with Russia. > ...counterweight to the US... Chinese foreign policy is almost entirely viewed through the lens of the US-China rivalry. Europeans underestimate this to their peril. And to China, an unaligned Europe is still not pro-China enough.

moogly 10mo ago

Well then us Europeans are fucked regardless I guess. > Beijing did not want to see a Russian loss in Ukraine because it feared the United States would then shift its whole focus to Beijing How does this statement make sense though? I don't see the A -> B. The US pretty clearly does not want to see a Russian loss either, and seems more fine with Ukraine losing. It should depends on how much the US wants Europe? If the US does not want more of Europe, and Russia wins, the US could let Russia take over Europe -> focus shifts to China. If the US wants more of Europe, and Russia wins -> focus would be off China. If the US does not want more of Europe, and Russia loses -> it's mostly whatever, but perhaps focus shifts to China. If the US wants more of Europe, and Russia loses -> focus would be off China. Perhaps I'm just really daft.

alephnerd 10mo ago
> How does this statement make sense though? I don't see the A -> B. The US pretty clearly does not want to see a Russian loss either, and seems more fine with Ukraine losing. Despite Trump, the US (and rivals of China like South Korea and Japan) have continued to supply the Ukrainian armed forces and their allies like Poland and Romania. A protracted Russia-Ukraine War with the balance of power in favor of Russia means the US, SK, and JP remain bogged supplying Ukraine and it's allies like Poland and Romania, instead of diverting stock to the Asian front. Additionally, China and Russia are increasingly collaborating to respond against Japan should a conflict occur [0] and North Korea is already an active participant in the Russia-Ukraine War. > It should depends on how much the US wants Europe? The issue is both the US and China view the EU as a regional power that can be pushed around - not as an entity that can retain strategic autonomy. This is the crux of the EU's current diplomatic malaise - neither the US nor China view the EU as an equal, but rather, as a junior partner. > Perhaps I'm just really daft I won't say daft, but the issue is Europeans view themselves as deserving of being on the same table as the Americans and Chinese. Neither the Americans or Chinese see it that way now. In order for the EU to build strategic autonomy, some very painful steps need to be taken which simply aren't being taken (as Draghi pessimistically pointed out a couple months ago) [1]. Additionally, periphery regions of the EU have increasingly started operating independently of the rest of the EU - as with China's CSPs with Spain [2] and Hungary [3]; Israel+India's defense alliances with Greece [4] and Cyprus [5] against Turkiye; and Poland coming out against committing resources to defend Greenland [6] - so a unified EU response is steadily degrading as members decide to take defense matters into their own hands. Basically, if a naval standoff between Greece and Turkiye was to arise in the next 6 months in the Aegean Sea, would the rest of the EU sanction Turkiye (and thus lose a major defense partner in Ukraine [7][8][9] and the Baltics [10]) or ignore Turkiye (and thus destroy the EU and NATO defense commitment). [0] - https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-russia-discuss-ukraine-reach-consensus-japan-during-chinese-ministers-2025-12-03/ https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-russia-discuss-ukr... [1] - https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/business/20250916-mario-draghi-warns-europe-is-falling-further-behind-us-china-due-to-government-complacency https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/business/20250916-mario... [2] - http://en.cppcc.gov.cn/2025-11/13/c_1140641.htm http://en.cppcc.gov.cn/2025-11/13/c_1140641.htm [3] - https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202405/10/content_WS663d3b83c6d0868f4e8e6eb0.html https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202405/10/content_WS663d3b83... [4] - https://geetha.mil.gr/kyklos-synomilion-staff-talks-kai-ypografi-programmatos-stratiotikis-synergasias-pss-2026-ellados-indias/ https://geetha.mil.gr/kyklos-synomilion-staff-talks-kai-ypog... [5] - https://www.bankingnews.gr/amyna-diplomatia/articles/851003/pagkosmio-xaos-i-india-entassetai-sti-symmaxia-elladas-kyprou-israil-gia-na-tsakisei-to-islamiko-nato-tou-erdogan https://www.bankingnews.gr/amyna-diplomatia/articles/851003/... [6] - https://www.reuters.com/world/poland-will-not-send-soldiers-greenland-polish-pm-says-2026-01-15/ https://www.reuters.com/world/poland-will-not-send-soldiers-... [7] - https://ukrainesarmsmonitor.substack.com/p/ukraine-turkiye-strategic-defence https://ukrainesarmsmonitor.substack.com/p/ukraine-turkiye-s... [8] - https://www.cats-network.eu/publication/ukraine-turkey-strategic-partnership-in-security-and-defence https://www.cats-network.eu/publication/ukraine-turkey-strat... [9] - https://www.rnbo.gov.ua/en/Diialnist/3345.html https://www.rnbo.gov.ua/en/Diialnist/3345.html [10] - https://www.turkishminute.com/2026/01/13/nato-asks-turkey-to-deploy-fighter-jets-early-for-baltic-air-patrol-mission-report/ https://www.turkishminute.com/2026/01/13/nato-asks-turkey-to...

atwrk 10mo ago

Wang explicitly said that support for Russia in the war is about diverting the US focus from China. If the US shows it doesn't care about Ukraine's future (and Wang told the truth), then I doubt Chinas support will stay as is for long. At most it will be a bargain in the coming EU-China negotiations.

alephnerd 10mo ago
Russia continues to be a significant player in North Korea and Central Asia as well, and this requires Russia-China cooperation. Additionally, if a hot conflit between the US+PH+JP+TW and China happens, China will have to utilize Russian supply and logistics chains to a certain extent (eg. the Chongqing–Xinjiang–Europe railway).