3 ms·

I think as this becomes a reality, in general people will stop trading so close near the deadline for so little gain.

• mminer237 10mo ago
  As it gets closer to the deadline, the timeframe shortens, so the gain does increase. A 1% return which you're paid on tomorrow is a 3,778% annualized return.
  • TZubiri 10mo ago
    Ok, but the risk of manipulation increases as well, since the payoff for event manipulators is the highest near the deadline.
  • flyandscryaway 10mo ago
    There’s still limited liquidity. You need to find someone willing to put up a very large amount of money for almost no gain. I also doubt these websites have enough activity to well calibrate near 1 dollar bets, so it’s not clear the market is giving you accurate predictive power with very expensive bets, which means you’re risking a lot (again, for almost no gain).