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The disaster is the consequences of people treating the data generated by these prediction markets as revealing some sort of insight into future events, rather
by cjs_ac 9mo ago
The disaster is the consequences of people treating the data generated by these prediction markets as revealing some sort of insight into future events, rather than just a silly game played by silly people.
- TurdF3rguson 9mo agoIt's actually not a terrible idea to take some insights from prediction market data. For example, you can expect the data to closely correlate to poll results for elections, because when it doesn't... people will notice and correct it.
- whimsicalism 9mo agoMarkets are good at aggregating information. If there are so many obviously flawed predictions, I recommend you become one of the silly people as it sounds like you would quickly be rich.