4 ms·

Sure, you are likely correct, but I didn't really say anything about that. All I did was try to see past all the nonsense in the news and try to observe action

Sure, you are likely correct, but I didn't really say anything about that. All I did was try to see past all the nonsense in the news and try to observe actions. In a way they have forced EU to do part of what they wanted: take security more seriously and signing some sort of "deal" allows everyone to walk away. This was a really dumb way to go about it but Trump does not do smart politics. The long term mess will be inherited by his successor and they will be blamed for it.

johnnyanmac 9mo ago
I understand. as early as a month ago I may have agreed with you. But we're already off to a horrid 2026 between Venezuela and Minnesota, and even Jerome Powell. This isn't just big words anymore. Trump's shown he's willing to escalate to foreign intervention, shoot citizens in the street in broad daylight, and disrupt the core Dollar itself to fit his needs. I wouldn't rule out anything at this point. >The long term mess will be inherited by his successor and they will be blamed for it. Sure, but that was never in question. Trump appointed Powell and no one in the media brings this up. People still think Biden is the one who screwed up the immediate COVID response (hell, Trump caught COVID and I almost feel we're in some bizarro world that no one talks about this). And I've even seen absolutely fringe takes that Biden was president during Jan 6th. We're sadly in a post truth era. You don't change the minds of people like that with obvious, verifiable facts. I don't know what to do with them. I feel it takes less energy to focus efforts on those who can still be reasoned with than to convert the devout.
- nebula8804 9mo ago
  >But we're already off to a horrid 2026 between Venezuela and Minnesota, and even Jerome Powell. This isn't just big words anymore. Trump's shown he's willing to escalate to foreign intervention, shoot citizens in the street in broad daylight, and disrupt the core Dollar itself to fit his needs. I wouldn't rule out anything at this point. For the record im not saying any of these things are good. As a millenial, I completely understand that what this idiot is doing is going to take the rest of the millennial lifespan to correct and hopefully improve things for the next generation. He has forced us to become a transitional generation, but at the same time we need to take these things one at a time and understand what is bluster and what is action. Clearly, the Venezuela raid is action and it's set into motion some dire consequences, but if you look at it from 50,000 feet it is not the same thing as the Greenland situation. The Greenland situation has been all fluster. There hasn't even been movements on the American side in terms of troop movements. Lets look at this article and its concept of "strategic deception" To treat this as real preparation for Greenland, I would argue that we should see at least some of the following: overseas deployment authorities invoked, War Powers legal movement, classified funding reprogramming, NATO ally notifications or deconfliction, airlift tasking orders toward the North Atlantic, pre-positioning of sustainment or maritime assets(I'd argue most important) What we have: 1. A unnamed CSIS analyst offering a conceptual possibility 2. no documents, orders, or timelines 3. no corroboration from Reuters/AP (Important) This article is definitely in the bluster category. On the EU side they are obviously not in support of what America wants, and the most they have done is place a small number of troops and give a lot of rhetorical pushback. The thing in Minnesota, again, was very terrible, and it remains to be seen if it expands into full‑on martial law. But martial law is the actual action. That's the door that leads to real consequences. We have to separate the action from the bluster. Ruling out anything is just falling into the media narrative. >We're sadly in a post truth era. You don't change the minds of people like that with obvious, verifiable facts. I don't know what to do with them. I feel it takes less energy to focus efforts on those who can still be reasoned with than to convert the devout. I'm in complete agreement with you. My thinking is that I think back to a saying discussed at the end of Chernobyl: it was a disaster that was partly a response to hiding the truth. You cannot avoid the truth, eventually that debt has to be paid, and many times it's paid in irreparable damage. When that debt is paid, all the bluster in the world, all the fake news, all the "alternative facts" can try to hold back the debt but it must be settled. How do we translate that to the modern day? I suspect it's going to be a repeat of what happened during the George W. Bush era. When the economy finally crashed, all that pig‑headedness and honcho behavior that Bush supporters exhibited quietly disappeared. Many of them retreated into their caves for a while...at least until the United States elected a Black man and gave them a reason to come out and be hateful again. Some were so devastated by reality finally bearing down on them that many abandoned the Republican Party and actually voted for Obama twice (only to be let down again) and now end up with either Bernie or Trump.
  - johnnyanmac 9mo ago
    I think the issue here is that Venezuela was also all bluster... until it wasn't. Going through all the escalations that happened 1. Trump accuses Venezuela of trafficking in drugs to the US 2. Trump blows up a ship under suspicion of harboring drugs, breaking multiple laws in the process 3. January 3rd just happens. Congress is unaware, the press is unaware, the only dang signal of something major going on was increased orders from a local pizza joint. 4. The admin tries to spin it as drugs. Trump very openly says it's about Oil 5. the admin fumbles to talk about next steps. The supposed regime Trump wants to topple remains and already defects against the US. 6. in meetings with Oil companies (again, not congress. not his Cabinet. Oil companies), he now tries to sell the idea of investing in Venezuela 7. Pretty much no one except Chevron is really committing because it's an unstable situation. Trump comes out and says "we reached an agreement" anyway. And here we are today (and that's the cliff notes. Not even mentioning how many the US killed in that Raid despite saying "no casualties". Or the idea of charging a venezuelan leader under old US laws. Or the mentality of Stephen Miller as a white nationalist war mongerer). The actions were not only compltetely reckless and circumvented all legal channels, but it also had zero mid/long term planning. It wasn't some carefully orchestrated upheaval. Even his greed can't think more than a few days ahead. So yes. We have a stupid and reckless president. We can't really apply the same logical channels to this that we would for any other operation. We can only look at what's happened so far 1. President "jokes" about wanting greenland last year. And Canada. Remember that even going this far would be near impeachable offense in normal times 2. Trump runs a bunch of tarriffs on the whole world. 3. Trump tries to go on the "peace president" narrative to try and get the Nobel Peace Prize. Because Obama won one. this massively backfires in multiple ways 4. Trump does not win the peach prize. Well, he won the coveted FIFA peace prize. But that clearly wasn't enough for his ego 5. Venezuela happens. Talks on claiming Greenland continue to ramp back up. 6. Stephen Miller goes on an unhinged rant on CNN about the "Donroe doctrine" and spouts about how history had had countries conquer by force. We'd call it an over the top Onion article in normal times 7. White House reports of strategic advisers needing to refuse illegal orders to plan an attack on Greenland. Not corroboated by many because the most trustworthy press is still (illegally) banned from briefings and sources probably can't risk talking to them. 8. As recently as today, Trump made an unhinged letter to Sweden over the Nobel Peace prize kerfluffle. Remember at this time that the real winner already gave her trophy to Trump. But he's mad that Norway had to remind him that this isn't a transferrable reward. in terms of Venezuela, we're still between #1 and #2 (an actual aggresion). But the amount of utterly deranged drivel coming out shows that once again, this admin is crazy and dumb. A dangerous combination. It's really coming down to whether or not soldiers on the ground can refuse illegal orders to prevent an all out war. This is awfully close to one of those nuclear crises avoided simply because the operator didn't approave the launch. I really pray you are right and I look back and breathe a sigh of relief. But we truly are on a tipping point right now. And not one we can lay out a logical breadcrumb for (I spent 4 of my points talking about a president mad at not getting the Novel Peace Prize. Of course I'm very worried about the breadcrumbs).

johnnyanmac 9mo ago

I understand. as early as a month ago I may have agreed with you. But we're already off to a horrid 2026 between Venezuela and Minnesota, and even Jerome Powell. This isn't just big words anymore. Trump's shown he's willing to escalate to foreign intervention, shoot citizens in the street in broad daylight, and disrupt the core Dollar itself to fit his needs. I wouldn't rule out anything at this point. >The long term mess will be inherited by his successor and they will be blamed for it. Sure, but that was never in question. Trump appointed Powell and no one in the media brings this up. People still think Biden is the one who screwed up the immediate COVID response (hell, Trump caught COVID and I almost feel we're in some bizarro world that no one talks about this). And I've even seen absolutely fringe takes that Biden was president during Jan 6th. We're sadly in a post truth era. You don't change the minds of people like that with obvious, verifiable facts. I don't know what to do with them. I feel it takes less energy to focus efforts on those who can still be reasoned with than to convert the devout.

nebula8804 9mo ago
>But we're already off to a horrid 2026 between Venezuela and Minnesota, and even Jerome Powell. This isn't just big words anymore. Trump's shown he's willing to escalate to foreign intervention, shoot citizens in the street in broad daylight, and disrupt the core Dollar itself to fit his needs. I wouldn't rule out anything at this point. For the record im not saying any of these things are good. As a millenial, I completely understand that what this idiot is doing is going to take the rest of the millennial lifespan to correct and hopefully improve things for the next generation. He has forced us to become a transitional generation, but at the same time we need to take these things one at a time and understand what is bluster and what is action. Clearly, the Venezuela raid is action and it's set into motion some dire consequences, but if you look at it from 50,000 feet it is not the same thing as the Greenland situation. The Greenland situation has been all fluster. There hasn't even been movements on the American side in terms of troop movements. Lets look at this article and its concept of "strategic deception" To treat this as real preparation for Greenland, I would argue that we should see at least some of the following: overseas deployment authorities invoked, War Powers legal movement, classified funding reprogramming, NATO ally notifications or deconfliction, airlift tasking orders toward the North Atlantic, pre-positioning of sustainment or maritime assets(I'd argue most important) What we have: 1. A unnamed CSIS analyst offering a conceptual possibility 2. no documents, orders, or timelines 3. no corroboration from Reuters/AP (Important) This article is definitely in the bluster category. On the EU side they are obviously not in support of what America wants, and the most they have done is place a small number of troops and give a lot of rhetorical pushback. The thing in Minnesota, again, was very terrible, and it remains to be seen if it expands into full‑on martial law. But martial law is the actual action. That's the door that leads to real consequences. We have to separate the action from the bluster. Ruling out anything is just falling into the media narrative. >We're sadly in a post truth era. You don't change the minds of people like that with obvious, verifiable facts. I don't know what to do with them. I feel it takes less energy to focus efforts on those who can still be reasoned with than to convert the devout. I'm in complete agreement with you. My thinking is that I think back to a saying discussed at the end of Chernobyl: it was a disaster that was partly a response to hiding the truth. You cannot avoid the truth, eventually that debt has to be paid, and many times it's paid in irreparable damage. When that debt is paid, all the bluster in the world, all the fake news, all the "alternative facts" can try to hold back the debt but it must be settled. How do we translate that to the modern day? I suspect it's going to be a repeat of what happened during the George W. Bush era. When the economy finally crashed, all that pig‑headedness and honcho behavior that Bush supporters exhibited quietly disappeared. Many of them retreated into their caves for a while...at least until the United States elected a Black man and gave them a reason to come out and be hateful again. Some were so devastated by reality finally bearing down on them that many abandoned the Republican Party and actually voted for Obama twice (only to be let down again) and now end up with either Bernie or Trump.
- johnnyanmac 9mo ago
  I think the issue here is that Venezuela was also all bluster... until it wasn't. Going through all the escalations that happened 1. Trump accuses Venezuela of trafficking in drugs to the US 2. Trump blows up a ship under suspicion of harboring drugs, breaking multiple laws in the process 3. January 3rd just happens. Congress is unaware, the press is unaware, the only dang signal of something major going on was increased orders from a local pizza joint. 4. The admin tries to spin it as drugs. Trump very openly says it's about Oil 5. the admin fumbles to talk about next steps. The supposed regime Trump wants to topple remains and already defects against the US. 6. in meetings with Oil companies (again, not congress. not his Cabinet. Oil companies), he now tries to sell the idea of investing in Venezuela 7. Pretty much no one except Chevron is really committing because it's an unstable situation. Trump comes out and says "we reached an agreement" anyway. And here we are today (and that's the cliff notes. Not even mentioning how many the US killed in that Raid despite saying "no casualties". Or the idea of charging a venezuelan leader under old US laws. Or the mentality of Stephen Miller as a white nationalist war mongerer). The actions were not only compltetely reckless and circumvented all legal channels, but it also had zero mid/long term planning. It wasn't some carefully orchestrated upheaval. Even his greed can't think more than a few days ahead. So yes. We have a stupid and reckless president. We can't really apply the same logical channels to this that we would for any other operation. We can only look at what's happened so far 1. President "jokes" about wanting greenland last year. And Canada. Remember that even going this far would be near impeachable offense in normal times 2. Trump runs a bunch of tarriffs on the whole world. 3. Trump tries to go on the "peace president" narrative to try and get the Nobel Peace Prize. Because Obama won one. this massively backfires in multiple ways 4. Trump does not win the peach prize. Well, he won the coveted FIFA peace prize. But that clearly wasn't enough for his ego 5. Venezuela happens. Talks on claiming Greenland continue to ramp back up. 6. Stephen Miller goes on an unhinged rant on CNN about the "Donroe doctrine" and spouts about how history had had countries conquer by force. We'd call it an over the top Onion article in normal times 7. White House reports of strategic advisers needing to refuse illegal orders to plan an attack on Greenland. Not corroboated by many because the most trustworthy press is still (illegally) banned from briefings and sources probably can't risk talking to them. 8. As recently as today, Trump made an unhinged letter to Sweden over the Nobel Peace prize kerfluffle. Remember at this time that the real winner already gave her trophy to Trump. But he's mad that Norway had to remind him that this isn't a transferrable reward. in terms of Venezuela, we're still between #1 and #2 (an actual aggresion). But the amount of utterly deranged drivel coming out shows that once again, this admin is crazy and dumb. A dangerous combination. It's really coming down to whether or not soldiers on the ground can refuse illegal orders to prevent an all out war. This is awfully close to one of those nuclear crises avoided simply because the operator didn't approave the launch. I really pray you are right and I look back and breathe a sigh of relief. But we truly are on a tipping point right now. And not one we can lay out a logical breadcrumb for (I spent 4 of my points talking about a president mad at not getting the Novel Peace Prize. Of course I'm very worried about the breadcrumbs).