3 ms·

> The US will have lost a lot of political goodwill by then Not really. All Governments across the World have undergone similar crisis in their own Countries,

by kshri24 9mo ago

> The US will have lost a lot of political goodwill by then Not really. All Governments across the World have undergone similar crisis in their own Countries, in different points in time in their own history, and know well to differentiate an erratic Government from its populace. I bet no one has ill-will towards Americans (unless you are into terrorism) and so will obviously want to mend ways once a better admin is elected and put in place. The issue really though is not about political goodwill. It is about business that gets moved elsewhere. Once moved, it is really hard to bring it back. So US will then have to make a lot of concessions when it comes to that. The reason rest of the World is upset with the new tariff regime is not because they are being affected by it monetarily (which they actually are not), but because they do not want to sever a well established system and go looking for new buyers/sellers. For example, China decided to stop buying soybeans from US (after Trump threatened tariffs) and switched to buying from Argentina. Now once a new US admin is in place, it will have to give a better deal for China to switch its already established supply chain with Argentina to US again. Inertia is a good thing in trade. Infact, I feel it is even more important than building a moat. People are willing to continue paying higher price (even if something cheap is available elsewhere) because they do not want to go through the hassle of moving away from already established supply-chains and renegotiate new deals. > really unpopular measures to clean up the mess Agreed. > Once those are running there's no incentive to look at US ones again They will if US comes with better deals. This is the "unpopular measures to clean up the mess" you were pointing to earlier. Right now there is a mismatch between what US is actually worth and what it is projecting. I am not saying it is not a superpower anymore. It still very much is. But it is failing to recognize the rise of great powers in the rest of the World. And is unable to reconcile with multi-polarity that has already arrived and exists. As long as US is in denial of this reality, it will continue to make mistakes. > And any geopolitical influence that was lost will already have been filled by other players who will entrench themselves I agree but I'll go further and argue that the Trump admin is behaving erratically because it has realized it has lost geopolitical influence and that other players have already entrenched themselves. Trump has diagnozed the problem correctly (that US has lost its hegemony in many areas) but has no expertise (or even experts around him) to advice him on the right course of action.

wolvoleo 9mo ago
> Not really. All Governments across the World have undergone similar crisis in their own Countries, in different points in time in their own history, and know well to differentiate an erratic Government from its populace. I bet no one has ill-will towards Americans (unless you are into terrorism) and so will obviously want to mend ways once a better admin is elected and put in place. The governments probably yes but what will be lost for much longer is the heart of the people. In Western europe we really idolised American society. Most movies in the cinema were (and still are) American. A lot of music is. There is a huge American influence on western European society. However right now that idolisation has turned to irritation and eyerolling. I mean, if America was that great, how could it fall so quickly like that? And if Trump starts a war over Greenland that will turn worse pretty quickly. And those things take much longer to revert. Like they say, trust arrives on foot and leaves on horseback. I remember when I was in Holland in the 80s, the Germans were still deeply detested for what they had done to us 40 years earlier. And any cultural German phenomenon was tainted by it. And with that buyin to German economic developments and products, political proposals etc. And their tourists "conquering" our beaches with their towels. And yes we did make exceptions for good Germans, just like we know there are good Americans too. But in general the feeling was pretty negative and it took a long time to mend. A government can strike a peace deal pretty quickly but people don't just turn around like that. In the 90s that dislike for the Germans really started to turn and it's pretty much gone now but it remained for a very long time. > They will if US comes with better deals. This is the "unpopular measures to clean up the mess" you were pointing to earlier. Right now there is a mismatch between what US is actually worth and what it is projecting. I am not saying it is not a superpower anymore. It still very much is. But it is failing to recognize the rise of great powers in the rest of the World. And is unable to reconcile with multi-polarity that has already arrived and exists. As long as US is in denial of this reality, it will continue to make mistakes. The US still is a military superpower but it can't maintain that without the hearts of the people. Again look at Germany, they were by far the most powerful military nation in the world. Yet they were defeated because the rest of the world got sick of them and they had to go. The US even joined forces with China and Russia, as unlikely partners as they were even in those days. The US' hegemony was a carefully constructed combination of military power, economic power (the petrodollar in particular) and cultural adoration. Two of those are already crumbling and it's using the military power to forcefully hold on to its position. That is not sustainable. Some of the things Trump always complained about like the overwhelming majority of money for NATO coming from America, that was not just laxness from Europe, it was by design. America didn't want a too powerful Europe. They didn't want Europe to have its own nuclear umbrella. It bought influence. But you can't pull too hard on that. This is why you see that influence crumbling so fast.

by kshri24 9mo ago

wolvoleo 9mo ago

> Not really. All Governments across the World have undergone similar crisis in their own Countries, in different points in time in their own history, and know well to differentiate an erratic Government from its populace. I bet no one has ill-will towards Americans (unless you are into terrorism) and so will obviously want to mend ways once a better admin is elected and put in place. The governments probably yes but what will be lost for much longer is the heart of the people. In Western europe we really idolised American society. Most movies in the cinema were (and still are) American. A lot of music is. There is a huge American influence on western European society. However right now that idolisation has turned to irritation and eyerolling. I mean, if America was that great, how could it fall so quickly like that? And if Trump starts a war over Greenland that will turn worse pretty quickly. And those things take much longer to revert. Like they say, trust arrives on foot and leaves on horseback. I remember when I was in Holland in the 80s, the Germans were still deeply detested for what they had done to us 40 years earlier. And any cultural German phenomenon was tainted by it. And with that buyin to German economic developments and products, political proposals etc. And their tourists "conquering" our beaches with their towels. And yes we did make exceptions for good Germans, just like we know there are good Americans too. But in general the feeling was pretty negative and it took a long time to mend. A government can strike a peace deal pretty quickly but people don't just turn around like that. In the 90s that dislike for the Germans really started to turn and it's pretty much gone now but it remained for a very long time. > They will if US comes with better deals. This is the "unpopular measures to clean up the mess" you were pointing to earlier. Right now there is a mismatch between what US is actually worth and what it is projecting. I am not saying it is not a superpower anymore. It still very much is. But it is failing to recognize the rise of great powers in the rest of the World. And is unable to reconcile with multi-polarity that has already arrived and exists. As long as US is in denial of this reality, it will continue to make mistakes. The US still is a military superpower but it can't maintain that without the hearts of the people. Again look at Germany, they were by far the most powerful military nation in the world. Yet they were defeated because the rest of the world got sick of them and they had to go. The US even joined forces with China and Russia, as unlikely partners as they were even in those days. The US' hegemony was a carefully constructed combination of military power, economic power (the petrodollar in particular) and cultural adoration. Two of those are already crumbling and it's using the military power to forcefully hold on to its position. That is not sustainable. Some of the things Trump always complained about like the overwhelming majority of money for NATO coming from America, that was not just laxness from Europe, it was by design. America didn't want a too powerful Europe. They didn't want Europe to have its own nuclear umbrella. It bought influence. But you can't pull too hard on that. This is why you see that influence crumbling so fast.