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I have occasionally tried checking Polymarket and Kalshi to get an idea of the general political/cultural/technological consensus on various issues that are dif

I have occasionally tried checking Polymarket and Kalshi to get an idea of the general political/cultural/technological consensus on various issues that are difficult to research otherwise, eg. "what are the chances that the Senate changes hands in the 2026 midterms?" People have thought about it enough to wager a million dollars and the consensus is at about 1/3. I have this abstract prediction market in my head, each bet placed by some statistically average person with diverse experiences and exposures from my own bubble, who carefully considers their information and puts their two cents into the pot, and I assume that by adding all our ideas together we form some sort of combined intelligence which is more insightful and reliable together than any individual pundit could be. And then I go back to the home page, and see all the rabid sports fans, and realize that these bets are not being placed by deep thinkers.

anon84873628 9mo ago
Election polling, analysis, and prediction is a mature industry with plenty of reliable commentators who can help answer your question. Here is just one example: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate Portrayal to the contrary is mostly due to non-experts pumping their own ego, or deliberate media spin.
asdff 9mo ago
Polymarket is currently predicting a 3% chance of Christ returning by 2027 https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before-2027 https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before...
- graemep 9mo ago
  It will be resolved by "credible sources". The then credible sources did not believe Jesus was the Christ at the time of the first coming! If there was a second coming what would money be worth? What exactly are people betting in this thinking? Just betting on anything with long enough odds?
- walletdrainer 9mo ago
  That’s because 2027 is too far out, as the deadline gets closer it will trend towards 0%. Buying “Christ doesn’t return” at 99 cents right now would be unprofitable, you will wait a year or so to “profit” 1 cent.

anon84873628 9mo ago

Election polling, analysis, and prediction is a mature industry with plenty of reliable commentators who can help answer your question. Here is just one example: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate Portrayal to the contrary is mostly due to non-experts pumping their own ego, or deliberate media spin.

asdff 9mo ago

Polymarket is currently predicting a 3% chance of Christ returning by 2027 https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before-2027 https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before...

graemep 9mo ago
It will be resolved by "credible sources". The then credible sources did not believe Jesus was the Christ at the time of the first coming! If there was a second coming what would money be worth? What exactly are people betting in this thinking? Just betting on anything with long enough odds?
walletdrainer 9mo ago
That’s because 2027 is too far out, as the deadline gets closer it will trend towards 0%. Buying “Christ doesn’t return” at 99 cents right now would be unprofitable, you will wait a year or so to “profit” 1 cent.