3 ms·

Given the relatively low inflation in 2025, I’m skeptical of the claim that consumers bore 96% of the tariff burden. With CPI inflation at 2.7% and roughly $18,

Given the relatively low inflation in 2025, I’m skeptical of the claim that consumers bore 96% of the tariff burden. With CPI inflation at 2.7% and roughly $18,000 in goods consumption per person in US, total price increase in goods work out to ~160B. A $200 billion increase in customs revenues would exceed the total price increases attributable to inflation - which makes little sense if 96% of that was paid by consumers. Essentially tariffs did not increase inflation in any meaningful sense which means that somebody else paid the bill - not consumers.

sowbug 9mo ago
NPR says the figure is more like 5 percent. As far as we know, they haven't fired employees who produced numbers they didn't like. https://www.npr.org/2026/01/14/nx-s1-5638908/walmart-prices-inflation-affordability-shrinkflation https://www.npr.org/2026/01/14/nx-s1-5638908/walmart-prices-...
- seizethecheese 9mo ago
  This is a single Walmart and clearly dominated by outlier price swings. No, NPR didn’t make their own CPI. Surely there are other independent price baskets that actually attempt to do this, why choose this article, as interesting as it is?
  - sowbug 9mo ago
    I am not the one making the original assertion. I was pointing out that it relies on historically trustworthy statistics that the current administration is openly influencing. Call the NPR methodology a canary or smoke test, if you will. Feel free to grab the brass ring if you want sources that you find more credible.
whodidntante 9mo ago
While consumers are paying for pretty much the entire tariff (according to the article), the volume what they are buying has "collapsed" (according to the article). Consumers are just buying from other sources (domestically or otherwise) or not buying because it is no longer worth it. There are a lot of reasons why these tariff's are bad, but economically, it is not a bad thing for people not to buy things they do not need, or to buy them from a domestic producer. Consumer spending actually increased last year, and inflation is low.

sowbug 9mo ago

NPR says the figure is more like 5 percent. As far as we know, they haven't fired employees who produced numbers they didn't like. https://www.npr.org/2026/01/14/nx-s1-5638908/walmart-prices-inflation-affordability-shrinkflation https://www.npr.org/2026/01/14/nx-s1-5638908/walmart-prices-...

seizethecheese 9mo ago
This is a single Walmart and clearly dominated by outlier price swings. No, NPR didn’t make their own CPI. Surely there are other independent price baskets that actually attempt to do this, why choose this article, as interesting as it is?
- sowbug 9mo ago
  I am not the one making the original assertion. I was pointing out that it relies on historically trustworthy statistics that the current administration is openly influencing. Call the NPR methodology a canary or smoke test, if you will. Feel free to grab the brass ring if you want sources that you find more credible.

whodidntante 9mo ago

While consumers are paying for pretty much the entire tariff (according to the article), the volume what they are buying has "collapsed" (according to the article). Consumers are just buying from other sources (domestically or otherwise) or not buying because it is no longer worth it. There are a lot of reasons why these tariff's are bad, but economically, it is not a bad thing for people not to buy things they do not need, or to buy them from a domestic producer. Consumer spending actually increased last year, and inflation is low.