4 ms·

Why do people assume what currently available is the ceiling, especially after the last 2-3 years of explosive growth? Do you truly believe it won't get better

Why do people assume what currently available is the ceiling, especially after the last 2-3 years of explosive growth? Do you truly believe it won't get better, maybe even better at whole system design and implementation than people?

7777332215 9mo ago
I think what we currently have is pretty close to the ceiling for LLMs. But with the amount of money being spent there might be a new breakthrough (not llm)
- cbdevidal 9mo ago
  It must depend on the person. I’ve been coding for all my life but have never been GOOD. I thoroughly enjoy coding, despite being frustrated many times. Literally yesterday I remarked to my tech friends how fun coding with CoPilot is. I actually make forward progress now, and I understand all that the agent is doing. For me, coding is an enjoyable means to an end. I do enjoy the process, but I enjoy the results more.
  - 7777332215 9mo ago
    You could read the syntax and see what it logically did. But you likely don't always know why it did something, and you definitely don't know why another way wasn't chosen (maybe that way would have better aligned with your long term goals)
    - cbdevidal 9mo ago
      I do know why. I read the code and understand it. Reading code for me is easier than writing it. You're right though about it not choosing some different path, I might or I might not know that.
- KptMarchewa 9mo ago
  At least, they can still be much faster and cheaper.
Orygin 9mo ago
It will get better, but the rate at which it does may not continue to be exponential. Past performance is not indicative of future results. While the agents models seem to continue to improve, I think LLMs as a whole have started seeing less and less benefits from the current scaling approaches.
abalashov 9mo ago
> Do you truly believe it won't get better, maybe even better at whole system design and implementation than people? What are you calling "growth"? Adoption, or LLM progress? LLM progress has objectively slowed down, and for rather obvious reasons. The leaps from GPT-2 to GPT-4 can't be reprised forever.

7777332215 9mo ago

I think what we currently have is pretty close to the ceiling for LLMs. But with the amount of money being spent there might be a new breakthrough (not llm)

cbdevidal 9mo ago
It must depend on the person. I’ve been coding for all my life but have never been GOOD. I thoroughly enjoy coding, despite being frustrated many times. Literally yesterday I remarked to my tech friends how fun coding with CoPilot is. I actually make forward progress now, and I understand all that the agent is doing. For me, coding is an enjoyable means to an end. I do enjoy the process, but I enjoy the results more.
- 7777332215 9mo ago
  You could read the syntax and see what it logically did. But you likely don't always know why it did something, and you definitely don't know why another way wasn't chosen (maybe that way would have better aligned with your long term goals)
  - cbdevidal 9mo ago
    I do know why. I read the code and understand it. Reading code for me is easier than writing it. You're right though about it not choosing some different path, I might or I might not know that.
KptMarchewa 9mo ago
At least, they can still be much faster and cheaper.

Orygin 9mo ago

It will get better, but the rate at which it does may not continue to be exponential. Past performance is not indicative of future results. While the agents models seem to continue to improve, I think LLMs as a whole have started seeing less and less benefits from the current scaling approaches.

abalashov 9mo ago

> Do you truly believe it won't get better, maybe even better at whole system design and implementation than people? What are you calling "growth"? Adoption, or LLM progress? LLM progress has objectively slowed down, and for rather obvious reasons. The leaps from GPT-2 to GPT-4 can't be reprised forever.