3 ms·

Which makes the prediction market more accurate.

• intended 9mo ago
  Eh… sort of? In a sense, they become less accurate, because the prediction market is the causative event, not an independent observer.
• snowmobile 9mo ago
  Not really, for the same reason entrapment isn't usually seen as an accurate way to gather information for law enforcement. See also Goodhart's law and overfitting.
• pjc50 9mo ago
  "You provide the gambling, I'll provide the war"
• nkrisc 9mo ago
  Until the tail starts wagging the dog.
• xpe 9mo ago
  As long as we realize that prediction market accuracy is not all we care about. See also: one can have very high economic efficiency with very high inequality, war, disease, misery, etc.